Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.5%

+851

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

9.8%

+922

RBI 1+

33.3%

+201

Hits 1+

52.4%

-110

Hits 2+

12.0%

+735

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.7%

95% CI · 11.4–12.1%

+752

Fair odds

1st AB

3.0%

Through AB2

6.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact+4%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0330 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-4% (×0.96)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 10 games

Now

+850

High

+970

Low

+425

Med

+680

Avg

+670

+850

Low +425High +970

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.0

Proj PA

124

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.155

wOBA

.293

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.4

Hard%

37.5

FB%

35.7

Pull%

39.4

Soft%

11.5

GB%

48.0

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

32.4

FB%

37.5

Pull%

32.4

Soft%

14.7

GB%

43.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

40.0

FB%

34.8

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

10.0

GB%

50.0

Home

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

29.3

FB%

37.5

Pull%

36.6

Soft%

14.6

GB%

47.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

42.9

FB%

34.5

Pull%

41.3

Soft%

9.5

GB%

48.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (4.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.235↑ vs season .19017 PA · 15d

OPS

.647

ISO

.177

RBI

K-BB

6-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	K	SLG
06-12	@ KC	1	1	1	1	0	4.000
06-10	@ LAA	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ LAA	1	1	0	1	0	1.000
06-08	@ LAA	2	1	0	0	0	.500
06-07	vs ATH	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs ATH	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs ATH	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	vs PIT	2	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL21PA	.158	.318	10.0	40.0	40	37.9
🐾CHChangeupvL13PA	—	.119	0.0	12.5	63	46.2
🐾FCCutter10PA	.300	.435	10.0	44.4	80	25.0
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.158	.318	10.0	40.0	40	37.9	63	21
vs RHP	.128	.333	12.0	56.0	64	35.4	57	47

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.119	0.0	12.5	63	46.2	63	13
vs RHP	no sample

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.289	0.0	42.9	71	30.8	57	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Matthews.

Season Statcast

ISO

.114

Barrel %

6.7

Hard Hit %

38.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.255

xBA

.190

Brl / PA %

4.10

Max EV (mph)

111.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.1

Avg EV on HRs

105.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

388

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/5

Avg LA on HRs

26.4°

Brl / PA %

4.10

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.318
Whiff%
37.9
HH%
40.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
40
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.119
Whiff%
46.2
HH%
12.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 13 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.435
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
44.4
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
80
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .511). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FCCutter1

STSweeper1

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP114PA	.087	.291	.556	5.3%	2
🐾vs LHP57PA	.218	.436	.682	11.4%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home73PA	.097	.222	.359	6.7%	2
🐾Away98PA	.163	.442	.793	7.7%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day67PA	.098	.262	.486	6.7%	2
🐾Night104PA	.155	.392	.674	7.7%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty62PA	.153	.322	.532	2
Runners On71PA	.077	.292	.549	1
RISP42PA	.111	.389	.730	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs53PA	.171	.426	.734	2
1 Out63PA	.167	.300	.475	3
2 Outs55PA	.059	.314	.623	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-015PA	.134	.667	1.200	0
1-010PA	.100	.500	.900	0
0-110PA	—	.200	.400	0
2-05PA	.600	1.000	1.400	1
0-218PA	—	—	—	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-230PA	—	.033	.067	0
2-224PA	.125	.250	.375	1
3-237PA	.069	.207	.531	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.