Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.4%

+705

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs J.T. Ginn (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

10.8%

+823

RBI 1+

34.2%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.5%

95% CI · 8.2–8.8%

+1077

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP-2%
Contact-26%
SP Contact-1%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·93F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0262 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-26% (×0.74)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 4 games

Now

+705

High

+795

Low

+585

Med

+750

Avg

+720

+705

Low +585High +795

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.9

Proj PA

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.135

wOBA

.286

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

23.1

FB%

36.4

Pull%

46.2

Soft%

15.4

GB%

45.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.6

FB%

20.0

Pull%

57.1

Soft%

14.3

GB%

60.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

0.0

FB%

42.9

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

28.6

GB%

42.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.000↓ vs season .2500 PA · 15d

OPS

.000

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	SLG
06-13	vs MIA	0	—
06-10	vs LAD	0	—
05-20	@ STL	0	—
05-15	vs PHI	0	—
05-14	vs COL	0	—
05-12	vs COL	0	—
05-10	@ SF	1	—
05-09	@ SF	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Cook.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

J.T. Ginn · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

SISinker
Use%
35
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

J.T. Ginn (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.0	6.8	41.2	62	.351	29.1
FCCutter	18.6	8.3	38.2	75	.343	15.8
CHChangeup	18.3	5.6	26.5	75	.180	23.1
SLSlider	16.0	5.7	39.4	66	.292	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	9.4	40.6	75	.404	25.6	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	45.2	52	.309	31.4	68

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.6	50.0	82	.454	12.5	31
vs RHB	0.0	21.4	64	.143	—	15

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	29.4	77	.190	24.2	51
vs RHB	no sample

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.6	50.0	50	.391	18.5	24
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	82	.202	19.1	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .541). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP8PA	—	.250	.500	5.3%	0
vs LHP13PA	—	.154	.308	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home6PA	—	.667	1.334	—	0
🐾Away15PA	—	—	—	8.3%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day16PA	—	.188	.376	—	0
🐾Night5PA	—	.200	.400	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty7PA	—	.143	.286
Runners On7PA	—	.429	.858
RISP4PA	—	.250	.500

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs11PA	—	.182	.364
1 Out7PA	—	.286	.572
2 Outs3PA	—	—	—

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.