Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.3%

+480

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (1.79 HR/9) · park 79

Batting #4Projected lineup

2+ RBI

13.5%

+641

RBI 1+

36.6%

+173

Hits 1+

67.3%

-206

Hits 2+

25.3%

+295

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.0%

95% CI · 20.5–21.4%

+376

Fair odds

1st AB

6.0%

Through AB2

11.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind-2%
vs SP+4%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+15%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0410 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+4% (×1.04) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+760

High

+2605

Low

+245

Med

+640

Avg

+701

+760

Low +245High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.6

Proj PA

240

HR / PA

.044

ISO

.205

wOBA

.333

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

22.7

Hard%

42.2

FB%

30.3

Pull%

47.7

Soft%

12.8

GB%

44.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

30.3

FB%

30.3

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

18.2

GB%

45.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

21.7

Hard%

47.4

FB%

30.3

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

10.5

GB%

44.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

43.0

FB%

34.2

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

10.5

GB%

43.9

Away

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

41.3

FB%

26.0

Pull%

49.0

Soft%

15.4

GB%

45.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
14.2% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
56.8% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SL)
Hot streak: 1.027 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (79)
Elite barrel% (14.2)
High barrels/PA (8.5%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.383↑ vs season .27253 PA · 15d

OPS

1.027

ISO

.191

RBI

K-BB

15-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ WSH	5	1	0	0	1	.200
06-16	@ WSH	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-15	@ WSH	4	2	0	0	1	.750
06-14	vs HOU	4	1	1	0	3	.250
06-13	vs HOU	2	0	0	2	0	—
06-12	vs HOU	5	0	0	0	3	—
06-11	vs TEX	4	2	0	0	1	.500
06-10	vs TEX	5	4	1	0	1	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball64PA	.263	.412	22.9	68.6	57	26.4
🐾SLSlider39PA	.223	.427	17.4	69.6	74	46.3
🐾CUCurveball27PA	.154	.274	7.7	37.5	85	36.4
🐾CHChangeup27PA	.217	.356	11.1	41.2	72	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.300	.389	25.0	75.0	25	38.5	106	11
vs RHP	.250	.417	22.6	67.7	61	22.9	117	54

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.357	.437	10.0	50.0	80	38.5	106	14
vs RHP	.131	.423	23.1	84.6	69	49.1	117	26

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.166	.270	8.3	33.3	83	36.6	117	18

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.096	.297	6.2	43.8	69	34.2	117	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Caglianone.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Projected0 of 1 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #7 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.164

Barrel %

14.2

Hard Hit %

56.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.356

xBA

.272

Brl / PA %

8.50

Max EV (mph)

116.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.4

Avg EV on HRs

108.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

408

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/5

Avg LA on HRs

32.0°

Brl / PA %

8.50

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.412
Whiff%
26.4
HH%
68.6
BRL%
22.9
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.427
Whiff%
46.3
HH%
69.6
BRL%
17.4
Pull%
74
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.274
Whiff%
36.4
HH%
37.5
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
85
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.

Career vs Matthew Liberatore

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Matthew Liberatore arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .482). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP184PA	.161	.426	.779	17.4%	5
vs LHP74PA	.172	.443	.754	6.0%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home143PA	.186	.442	.771	13.8%	5
Away115PA	.135	.417	.774	13.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day92PA	.081	.302	.574	15.0%	2
🐾Night166PA	.212	.507	.887	13.1%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty90PA	.178	.456	.823	3
Runners On115PA	.129	.370	.657	3
RISP57PA	.132	.340	.603	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs79PA	.158	.429	.783	2
1 Out87PA	.141	.385	.707	2
2 Outs92PA	.190	.476	.824	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.