Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

17.6%

+469

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Mike Burrows (RHP) (2.09 HR/9) · park 79

2+ RBI

13.7%

+632

RBI 1+

36.8%

+172

Hits 1+

67.8%

-210

Hits 2+

25.8%

+287

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

25.2%

95% CI · 24.7–25.7%

+296

Fair odds

1st AB

7.8%

Through AB2

14.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind+3%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+24%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Mike Burrows (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·10 mph wind out to OF
·94F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0411 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind+3% (×1.03)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+470

High

+795

Low

+415

Med

+550

Avg

+564

+470

Low +415High +795

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.7

Proj PA

317

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.193

wOBA

.333

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

18.6

Hard%

41.1

FB%

30.5

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

10.6

GB%

40.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

30.0

Hard%

29.3

FB%

24.4

Pull%

34.1

Soft%

14.6

GB%

43.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

15.2

Hard%

46.0

FB%

33.0

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

9.0

GB%

39.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

19.2

Hard%

42.5

FB%

32.5

Pull%

47.5

Soft%

10.0

GB%

40.0

Away

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

39.3

FB%

27.9

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

11.5

GB%

41.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Mike Burrows is leaky — 2.09 HR/9 allowed
15.6% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
57.4% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SL)
Hot streak: 1.119 OPS over last 15 days
95°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (79)
Elite barrel% (15.6)
High barrels/PA (9.5%)
Pitcher HR-prone (2.09 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.404↑ vs season .27554 PA · 15d

OPS

1.119

ISO

.234

RBI

K-BB

15-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs HOU	5	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-11	vs TEX	4	2	0	0	0	1	.500
06-10	vs TEX	5	4	0	1	0	1	1.000
06-09	vs TEX	3	3	2	3	1	0	3.000
💣 431ft · 105.0 EV · Changeup💣 421ft · 107.9 EV · Curveball
06-06	@ MIN	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ MIN	3	2	0	1	1	0	1.000
06-04	@ MIN	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-03	@ CIN	4	2	0	0	0	2	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR49PA	.279	.454	23.3	66.7	60	18.3
🐾CHChangeupvR22PA	.106	.300	6.7	40.0	67	31.2
🐾SLSlidervR23PA	.150	.441	25.0	91.7	67	53.5
🐾CUCurveballvR17PA	.176	.236	9.1	36.4	82	38.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.300	.389	25.0	75.0	25	38.5	125	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.279	.454	23.3	66.7	60	18.3	123	49

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.106	.300	6.7	40.0	67	31.2	123	22

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.417	.414	12.5	50.0	88	40.9	125	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.150	.441	25.0	91.7	67	53.5	123	23

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.176	.236	9.1	36.4	82	38.5	123	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Caglianone.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #7 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.178

Barrel %

15.6

Hard Hit %

57.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.363

xBA

.275

Brl / PA %

9.50

Max EV (mph)

116.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.4

Avg EV on HRs

108.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

408

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/5

Avg LA on HRs

32.0°

Brl / PA %

9.50

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Mike Burrows · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.454
Whiff%
18.3
HH%
66.7
BRL%
23.3
Pull%
60
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.300
Whiff%
31.2
HH%
40.0
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
67
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.441
Whiff%
53.5
HH%
91.7
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Mike Burrows (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.8	16.7	50.8	52	.434	14.3
CHChangeup	27.5	3.2	27.1	76	.281	18.6
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.3	6.1	31.1	59	.301	21.8
CUCurveball	14.6	24.0	45.5	68	.319	17.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	18.0	56.0	50	.441	13.0	66
vs RHB	12.5	50.0	56	.416	14.7	23

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	3.6	23.6	75	.300	10.8	71
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	57.1	86	.216	34.3	22

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	38.1	67	.411	24.2	32
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	54	.191	13.3	32

CUCurveball15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	26.7	46.7	73	.391	15.4	20
vs RHB	20.0	30.0	60	.237	18.4	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .482). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP170PA	.166	.433	.786	18.6%	5
vs LHP66PA	.190	.476	.794	7.0%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home135PA	.195	.455	.781	14.6%	5
Away101PA	.144	.433	.799	15.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day83PA	.091	.312	.589	16.4%	2
🐾Night153PA	.221	.522	.901	14.4%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty85PA	.186	.453	.806	3
Runners On102PA	.135	.385	.679	3
RISP49PA	.153	.370	.635	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs73PA	.170	.462	.832	2
1 Out78PA	.142	.371	.679	2
2 Outs85PA	.205	.500	.853	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-039PA	.230	.692	1.154	2
1-013PA	.385	1.000	1.615	1
0-112PA	.166	.583	1.000	0
2-06PA	.667	1.167	1.667	1
0-222PA	—	.091	.182	0
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-233PA	—	.194	.436	0
2-235PA	—	.029	.057	0
3-236PA	.042	.125	.514	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.