Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

26.2%

+282

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

18.4%

+444

RBI 1+

41.1%

+143

Hits 1+

68.2%

-215

Hits 2+

26.4%

+279

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

33.0%

95% CI · 32.5–33.6%

+203

Fair odds

1st AB

9.6%

Through AB2

18.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact+18%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+26%
SP Statcast+4%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0463 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+26% (×1.26)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 2 HR

Now

+280

High

+640

Low

+280

Med

+415

Avg

+445

🐾🐾+280

Low +280🐾 HR money zoneHigh +640

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

18.4

Proj PA

379

HR / PA

.048

ISO

.231

wOBA

.380

wRC+

143

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

26.5

Hard%

50.6

FB%

41.0

Pull%

28.3

Soft%

9.6

GB%

38.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

26.3

Hard%

46.6

FB%

32.8

Pull%

24.1

Soft%

12.1

GB%

46.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

26.5

Hard%

52.8

FB%

45.4

Pull%

30.6

Soft%

8.3

GB%

33.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

27.0

Hard%

43.4

FB%

44.6

Pull%

25.3

Soft%

6.0

GB%

37.3

Away

HR/FB

25.8

Hard%

57.8

FB%

37.3

Pull%

31.3

Soft%

13.3

GB%

38.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Elite power: .263 ISO
25.3% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
58.4% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SL, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (55% of career HRs)
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
Elite barrel% (25.3)
High barrels/PA (13.0%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.265↓ vs season .27858 PA · 15d

OPS

.889

ISO

.245

RBI

K-BB

19-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SEA	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.250
06-10	@ SF	4	1	1	2	1	1	1.000
💣 405ft · 104.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	@ SF	5	3	0	1	0	2	.600
06-08	@ SF	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-07	@ ARI	2	0	0	0	2	0	—
06-06	@ ARI	4	1	0	0	1	3	.250
06-05	@ ARI	4	2	1	1	1	2	1.250
💣 419ft · 105.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-03	vs MIA	3	0	0	0	1	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR79PA	.344	.494	28.9	60.0	29	17.4
🐾SLSlidervR23PA	.369	.460	37.5	62.5	50	48.8
🐾SISinkervR23PA	.235	.586	33.3	66.7	42	9.1
🐾CHChangeupvR32PA	.041	.404	6.2	50.0	75	32.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.188	.484	16.7	50.0	25	21.2	140	19
vs RHPTONIGHT	.344	.494	28.9	60.0	29	17.4	170	79

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.304	.388	23.1	46.2	46	48.8	140	25
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.369	.460	37.5	62.5	50	48.8	170	23

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.485	18.2	63.6	46	17.0	140	29
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.235	.586	33.3	66.7	42	9.1	170	23

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.548	50.0	100.0	100	41.2	140	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	.041	.404	6.2	50.0	75	32.1	170	32

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wood.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 21 of 38 career HRs (55%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.263

Barrel %

25.3

Hard Hit %

58.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.431

xBA

.278

Brl / PA %

13.00

Max EV (mph)

116.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.5

Avg EV on HRs

108.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

405

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

5/14

Crushed (105+ mph)

11/14

Avg LA on HRs

27.4°

Brl / PA %

13.00

Sampled across 14 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.494
Whiff%
17.4
HH%
60.0
BRL%
28.9
Pull%
29
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.460
Whiff%
48.8
HH%
62.5
BRL%
37.5
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.586
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
66.7
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
42
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .660). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

14 HRs this season

vs RHP 11vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

SLSlider4

SISinker2

FCCutter1

FO1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP219PA	.291	.571	.996	27.1%	14
vs LHP107PA	.231	.495	.869	19.4%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home152PA	.309	.595	1.003	24.7%	11
Away174PA	.236	.500	.908	24.2%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day153PA	.252	.472	.845	24.4%	8
Night173PA	.286	.608	1.047	24.5%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty81PA	.123	.323	.681	2
Runners On121PA	.268	.548	.994	6
RISP79PA	.228	.474	.930	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs146PA	.323	.638	1.042	11
1 Out82PA	.394	.689	1.165	6
2 Outs98PA	.090	.282	.639	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-029PA	.393	.643	.919	3
1-014PA	.072	.429	.786	0
0-114PA	—	.308	.665	0
2-09PA	.111	.778	1.444	0
0-221PA	.333	.476	.619	2
3-019PA	—	—	.895	0
1-249PA	.204	.408	.612	3
2-255PA	.170	.340	.540	2
3-277PA	.226	.434	.889	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.