Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.9%

+621

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (1.79 HR/9) · park 79

Batting #9Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.6%

+760

RBI 1+

34.9%

+186

Hits 1+

56.6%

-130

Hits 2+

15.1%

+561

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.0%

95% CI · 10.6–11.3%

+811

Fair odds

1st AB

2.9%

Through AB2

5.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind-2%
vs SP+4%
Contact-9%
SP Contact+15%
Statcast+5%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0320 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+4% (×1.04) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+5% (×1.05)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+625

High

+2605

Low

+340

Med

+715

Avg

+784

+625

Low +340High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.3

Proj PA

197

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.186

wOBA

.322

wRC+

101

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.4

Hard%

39.0

FB%

49.3

Pull%

39.0

Soft%

14.1

GB%

33.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

35.5

FB%

38.7

Pull%

33.9

Soft%

16.1

GB%

41.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

40.4

FB%

53.6

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

13.2

GB%

29.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

36.5

FB%

49.0

Pull%

39.4

Soft%

17.3

GB%

31.7

Away

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

41.3

FB%

49.5

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

11.0

GB%

34.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
Hot streak: .816 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (5.5%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.280↑ vs season .21154 PA · 15d

OPS

.816

ISO

.240

RBI

K-BB

14-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ WSH	4	4	1	1	1	0	2.000
💣 366ft · 96.4 EV · Splitter
06-15	@ WSH	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-14	vs HOU	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-13	vs HOU	5	2	0	3	0	0	.800
06-12	vs HOU	4	1	0	1	1	1	.250
06-11	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-09	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-07	@ MIN	3	1	0	1	0	2	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball72PA	.200	.278	7.3	45.0	42	30.8
🐾SLSlider48PA	—	.233	10.7	42.3	61	34.9
🐾CUCurveball25PA	.272	.354	10.0	37.5	70	25.0
🐾CHChangeup23PA	.087	.280	4.8	35.0	71	30.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.320	0.0	60.0	40	21.4	91	11
vs RHP	.222	.272	8.3	44.4	42	28.4	94	64

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.261	0.0	30.0	60	43.8	91	18
vs RHP	—	.218	16.7	44.4	61	30.4	94	33

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.154	.319	12.5	50.0	63	34.8	94	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.091	.268	0.0	36.8	74	29.3	94	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jensen.

Season Statcast

ISO

.181

Barrel %

8.8

Hard Hit %

43.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.282

xBA

.211

Brl / PA %

5.50

Max EV (mph)

113.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.7

Avg EV on HRs

107.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

387

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/6

Avg LA on HRs

24.2°

Brl / PA %

5.50

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.278
Whiff%
30.8
HH%
45.0
BRL%
7.3
Pull%
42
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 72 PA this season.
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.233
Whiff%
34.9
HH%
42.3
BRL%
10.7
Pull%
61
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 48 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.354
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
37.5
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
70

Matthew Liberatore arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .550). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

FCCutter2

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP194PA	.211	.435	.729	10.5%	9
vs LHP61PA	.089	.357	.685	2.2%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home127PA	.142	.381	.688	6.7%	2
Away128PA	.221	.451	.748	9.9%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day104PA	.263	.538	.865	9.5%	7
🐾Night151PA	.126	.333	.618	7.3%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty86PA	.228	.456	.747	4
Runners On103PA	.137	.432	.782	2
RISP59PA	.107	.362	.684	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs92PA	.134	.293	.543	3
1 Out95PA	.250	.500	.784	5
2 Outs68PA	.150	.467	.864	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.