Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.0%

+616

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Mike Burrows (RHP) (2.09 HR/9) · park 79

2+ RBI

11.7%

+756

RBI 1+

35.0%

+186

Hits 1+

53.2%

-114

Hits 2+

12.6%

+696

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.6%

95% CI · 13.2–14.0%

+635

Fair odds

1st AB

3.9%

Through AB2

7.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact-7%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+10%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Mike Burrows (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0310 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+10% (×1.10)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games · 1 HR

Now

+615

High

+725

Low

+340

Med

+590

Avg

+550

🐾+615

Low +340🐾 HR money zoneHigh +725

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.5

Proj PA

261

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.171

wOBA

.316

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.0

Hard%

34.8

FB%

51.8

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

15.6

GB%

32.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

26.3

FB%

34.2

Pull%

34.2

Soft%

21.1

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

37.9

FB%

58.3

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

13.6

GB%

26.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

33.3

FB%

50.0

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

19.4

GB%

29.2

Away

HR/FB

16.2

Hard%

36.2

FB%

53.6

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

11.6

GB%

36.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Mike Burrows is leaky — 2.09 HR/9 allowed
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (6.0%)
Pitcher HR-prone (2.09 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.191→ vs season .19451 PA · 15d

OPS

.599

ISO

.192

RBI

K-BB

16-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs HOU	4	1	0	1	1	1	.250
06-11	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-09	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-07	@ MIN	3	1	0	1	0	2	.333
06-06	@ MIN	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 384ft · 102.1 EV · Knuckle-Curve
06-05	@ MIN	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	@ MIN	6	1	0	2	0	3	.333
06-03	@ CIN	5	0	0	0	0	4	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR59PA	.245	.283	9.4	46.9	41	30.4
🐾CHChangeupvR19PA	.052	.241	0.0	31.2	75	29.7
🐾SLSlidervR29PA	—	.218	18.8	43.8	63	29.8
🐾CUCurveballvR14PA	.083	.280	14.3	42.9	57	36.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.273	0.0	60.0	40	21.4	68	10
vs RHPTONIGHT	.245	.283	9.4	46.9	41	30.4	84	59

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.052	.241	0.0	31.2	75	29.7	84	19

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.230	0.0	14.3	57	48.0	68	14
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.218	18.8	43.8	63	29.8	84	29

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.083	.280	14.3	42.9	57	36.4	84	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jensen.

Season Statcast

ISO

.170

Barrel %

9.9

Hard Hit %

41.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.271

xBA

.194

Brl / PA %

6.00

Max EV (mph)

113.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.7

Avg EV on HRs

107.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

387

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/6

Avg LA on HRs

24.2°

Brl / PA %

6.00

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Mike Burrows · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.283
Whiff%
30.4
HH%
46.9
BRL%
9.4
Pull%
41
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.241
Whiff%
29.7
HH%
31.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.218
Whiff%
29.8
HH%
43.8
BRL%
18.8
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 29 PA this season.

Mike Burrows (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.8	16.7	50.8	52	.434	14.3
CHChangeup	27.5	3.2	27.1	76	.281	18.6
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.3	6.1	31.1	59	.301	21.8
CUCurveball	14.6	24.0	45.5	68	.319	17.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	18.0	56.0	50	.441	13.0	66
vs RHB	12.5	50.0	56	.416	14.7	23

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	3.6	23.6	75	.300	10.8	71
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	57.1	86	.216	34.3	22

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	38.1	67	.411	24.2	32
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	54	.191	13.3	32

CUCurveball15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	26.7	46.7	73	.391	15.4	20
vs RHB	20.0	30.0	60	.237	18.4	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .550). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

FCCutter2

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP180PA	.198	.408	.691	11.8%	8
vs LHP57PA	.077	.308	.606	2.4%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home118PA	.134	.365	.670	7.7%	2
Away119PA	.200	.400	.669	10.8%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day95PA	.241	.482	.777	10.4%	6
🐾Night142PA	.119	.317	.599	8.2%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty82PA	.214	.427	.707	4
Runners On93PA	.139	.405	.728	2
RISP55PA	.093	.326	.635	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs85PA	.106	.253	.500	2
1 Out91PA	.246	.481	.745	5
2 Outs61PA	.132	.415	.792	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-026PA	.208	.583	.929	1
1-011PA	.600	.900	1.173	2
0-122PA	.137	.455	.773	0
2-05PA	.200	.400	.600	0
0-217PA	—	—	—	0
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-230PA	.033	.200	.367	0
2-242PA	.166	.333	.500	2
3-248PA	.088	.176	.510	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.