Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

24.8%

+303

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

17.7%

+466

RBI 1+

40.4%

+147

Hits 1+

57.7%

-137

Hits 2+

16.1%

+523

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

38.4%

95% CI · 37.9–39.0%

+160

Fair odds

1st AB

12.6%

Through AB2

23.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Contact+24%
SP Contact+6%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0499 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+330

High

+1300

Low

+220

Med

+598

Avg

+591

+330

Low +220High +1300

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.0

Proj PA

271

HR / PA

.059

ISO

.244

wOBA

.334

wRC+

113

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.2

Hard%

34.1

FB%

51.8

Pull%

51.8

Soft%

20.5

GB%

30.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

25.8

Hard%

31.4

FB%

44.3

Pull%

58.6

Soft%

20.0

GB%

37.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

18.1

Hard%

35.3

FB%

55.3

Pull%

48.7

Soft%

20.7

GB%

27.3

Home

HR/FB

18.0

Hard%

30.2

FB%

47.2

Pull%

58.5

Soft%

21.7

GB%

34.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

21.9

Hard%

37.7

FB%

56.1

Pull%

45.6

Soft%

19.3

GB%

26.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
Elite power: .277 ISO
13.9% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (40% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .907 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
Elite barrel% (13.9)
High barrels/PA (8.0%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.206↓ vs season .21738 PA · 15d

OPS

.907

ISO

.412

RBI

K-BB

13-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ NYY	4	2	2	4	0	0	2.000
💣 412ft · 104.9 EV · Changeup💣 384ft · 100.1 EV · Slider
06-16	@ NYY	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs LAD	4	2	1	2	0	2	1.500
💣 410ft · 101.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-13	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs LAD	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	@ PHI	3	1	0	0	2	2	.667
06-06	@ PHI	4	1	1	1	1	2	1.000
💣 380ft · 97.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05	@ PHI	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball105PA	.204	.272	9.4	43.9	58	37.6
🐾CHChangeup29PA	.500	.438	19.0	35.0	91	34.5
🐾SISinker44PA	.189	.360	11.5	68.0	69	38.9
🐾STSweeper20PA	—	.200	10.0	44.4	80	46.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.312	.389	15.4	53.8	54	22.9	137	18
vs RHP	.159	.254	7.8	43.1	59	33.1	119	98

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.461	.496	21.1	36.8	90	36.1	119	29

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.174	.319	7.7	46.2	77	38.3	137	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.200	.433	15.4	92.3	62	22.2	119	17

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.184	20.0	40.0	60	38.9	137	10
vs RHP	—	.222	0.0	40.0	100	55.0	119	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Montgomery.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed2 of 10 HRs · 20%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 4 of 10 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#5#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.277

Barrel %

13.9

Hard Hit %

46.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.328

xBA

.217

Brl / PA %

8.00

Max EV (mph)

114.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Avg EV on HRs

103.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/12

Avg LA on HRs

30.1°

Brl / PA %

8.00

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.272
Whiff%
37.6
HH%
43.9
BRL%
9.4
Pull%
58
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 105 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
.438
Whiff%
34.5
HH%
35.0
BRL%
19.0
Pull%
91
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
.360
Whiff%
38.9
HH%
68.0
BRL%
11.5
Pull%
69

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .566). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter4

FF4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider2

CHChangeup2

KCKnuckle-Curve1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.0 games · 8 PA (4 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP206PA	.261	.483	.803	13.1%	13
vs LHP82PA	.315	.548	.865	12.7%	6

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home135PA	.277	.521	.854	11.8%	9
🐾Away153PA	.276	.485	.792	14.1%	10

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day138PA	.292	.522	.892	13.9%	9
🐾Night150PA	.265	.486	.759	12.2%	10

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty79PA	.411	.685	1.014	8
Runners On147PA	.165	.378	.698	5
RISP92PA	.200	.413	.728	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs95PA	.329	.532	.869	8
1 Out74PA	.239	.478	.789	4
2 Outs119PA	.261	.495	.806	7

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.