Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

21.8%

+358

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

16.0%

+525

RBI 1+

38.9%

+157

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

16.1%

95% CI · 15.7–16.5%

+521

Fair odds

1st AB

4.7%

Through AB2

9.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Contact+19%
SP Contact+12%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (season) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0239 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+500

High

+2605

Low

+585

Med

+752

Avg

+915

+500

Low +585High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.4

Proj PA

221

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.139

wOBA

.302

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

39.5

FB%

30.0

Pull%

38.3

Soft%

7.4

GB%

57.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.3

FB%

33.3

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

4.5

GB%

42.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

44.1

FB%

28.8

Pull%

35.6

Soft%

8.5

GB%

62.7

Home

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

41.3

FB%

28.9

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

2.2

GB%

53.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

37.1

FB%

31.4

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

14.3

GB%

62.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for SHB)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.222↓ vs season .25028 PA · 15d

OPS

.657

ISO

.185

RBI

K-BB

8-1

Game Log · Last 7

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ NYY	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-16	@ NYY	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs LAD	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-13	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	vs LAD	3	0	0	1	1	1	—
06-10	vs ATL	4	2	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-09	vs ATL	5	2	1	3	0	2	1.000
💣 343ft · 98.6 EV · Changeup

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seamer6PA	.200	.495	25.0	75.0	25	18.2
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

🐾vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Montgomery.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.495
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
75.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
25
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 7.0 games · 28 PA (1 HR in 7 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP19PA	.222	.444	.707	15.4%	1
vs LHP9PA	.111	.333	.555	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home20PA	.263	.526	.826	14.3%	1
🐾Away8PA	—	.125	.250	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day7PA	—	.143	.286	—	0
🐾Night21PA	.250	.500	.786	14.3%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty10PA	.100	.400	.700	0
Runners On11PA	.300	.500	.773	1
RISP9PA	.375	.625	.958	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs11PA	.091	.364	.637	0
1 Out10PA	—	—	.100	0
2 Outs7PA	.571	1.000	1.429	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.