Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.0%

+489

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

13.3%

+650

RBI 1+

36.5%

+174

Hits 1+

66.3%

-197

Hits 2+

24.3%

+312

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.6%

95% CI · 10.3–11.0%

+840

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact-5%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+4%
SP Statcast+4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0216 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+4% (×1.04)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+490

High

+1105

Low

+565

Med

+725

Avg

+761

🐾+490

Low +565🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1105

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.1

Proj PA

343

HR / PA

.021

ISO

.144

wOBA

.323

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.0

Hard%

30.0

FB%

44.8

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

14.3

GB%

35.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.2

FB%

30.2

Pull%

52.4

Soft%

19.0

GB%

49.2

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

9.9

Hard%

30.0

FB%

50.6

Pull%

38.8

Soft%

12.5

GB%

30.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.9

Hard%

27.6

FB%

45.9

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

17.3

GB%

34.7

Away

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

32.0

FB%

44.0

Pull%

48.0

Soft%

12.0

GB%

36.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
High barrels/PA (6.0%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.280↑ vs season .26655 PA · 15d

OPS

.725

ISO

.100

RBI

K-BB

7-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SEA	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ SF	5	4	0	2	0	0	.800
06-09	@ SF	2	1	0	2	2	0	1.500
06-08	@ SF	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250
06-07	@ ARI	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ ARI	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-05	@ ARI	6	3	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 393ft · 101.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-03	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR70PA	.258	.346	14.0	46.0	54	20.5
🐾SLSlidervR23PA	.273	.314	13.3	46.7	53	21.4
🐾SISinkervR22PA	.333	.548	10.0	45.0	40	21.1
🐾CHChangeupvR49PA	.086	.286	2.3	32.6	70	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.345	0.0	22.2	44	28.6	88	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.258	.346	14.0	46.0	54	20.5	115	70

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.199	0.0	31.8	55	26.1	88	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.273	.314	13.3	46.7	53	21.4	115	23

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.133	.425	0.0	40.0	73	2.6	88	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.333	.548	10.0	45.0	40	21.1	115	22

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.086	.286	2.3	32.6	70	20.0	115	49

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lile.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 3 of 4 career HRs (75%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.158

Barrel %

8.1

Hard Hit %

37.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.331

xBA

.266

Brl / PA %

6.00

Max EV (mph)

109.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.2

Avg EV on HRs

104.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/8

Avg LA on HRs

29.4°

Brl / PA %

6.00

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.346
Whiff%
20.5
HH%
46.0
BRL%
14.0
Pull%
54
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.314
Whiff%
21.4
HH%
46.7
BRL%
13.3
Pull%
53
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.548
Whiff%
21.1
HH%
45.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
40
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .466). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider2

SI🐾Sinker2

FSSplitter1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

SVSlurve1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP215PA	.204	.464	.776	9.8%	8
vs LHP88PA	.039	.308	.649	3.0%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home138PA	.154	.374	.671	7.0%	4
Away165PA	.159	.457	.796	8.5%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day140PA	.077	.308	.579	4.4%	0
Night163PA	.229	.521	.883	11.0%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty107PA	.099	.337	.617	1
Runners On144PA	.164	.422	.735	5
RISP83PA	.155	.366	.643	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs92PA	.190	.494	.864	3
1 Out116PA	.153	.410	.729	4
2 Outs95PA	.134	.367	.641	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-058PA	.258	.724	1.190	2
1-023PA	.272	.636	.984	2
0-135PA	.114	.257	.400	1
2-06PA	.334	.667	1.000	0
0-231PA	.193	.387	.581	2
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-244PA	.069	.209	.346	0
2-242PA	.049	.195	.338	0
3-236PA	.143	.238	.710	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.