Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.9%

+673

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.1%

+800

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.9%

95% CI · 3.7–4.2%

+2440

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

2.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact-26%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0150 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-26% (×0.74)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+870

High

+4000

Low

+400

Med

+990

Avg

+1298

+870

Low +400High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.8

Proj PA

HR / PA

.012

ISO

.097

wOBA

.298

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

2.7

Hard%

28.8

FB%

27.2

Pull%

25.9

Soft%

18.0

GB%

49.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

23.1

FB%

24.0

Pull%

19.2

Soft%

30.8

GB%

52.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

3.2

Hard%

30.1

FB%

27.9

Pull%

27.4

Soft%

15.0

GB%

48.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

26.6

FB%

28.6

Pull%

25.0

Soft%

18.8

GB%

47.6

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.7

FB%

26.0

Pull%

26.7

Soft%

17.3

GB%

50.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
94°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .25013 PA · 15d

OPS

.398

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

2-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIN	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-15	vs MIN	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	@ BOS	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-03	@ STL	1	0	0	1	0	—
06-02	@ STL	4	1	1	0	1	.250
06-01	@ STL	4	1	0	0	0	.250
05-31	vs KC	4	1	1	0	1	.250
05-30	vs KC	1	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball43PA	—	.384	0.0	44.4	53	13.3
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker15PA	.083	.324	0.0	40.0	36	5.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.387	0.0	43.3	53	9.6	88	48

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.188	0.0	20.0	40	0.0	—	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.401	0.0	66.7	33	8.3	88	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Osuna.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Confirmed0 of 1 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.384
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
44.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .616). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP110PA	.022	.261	.619	1.1%	0
vs LHP11PA	—	.300	.664	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home63PA	—	.216	.571	—	0
Away58PA	.039	.314	.676	1.9%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day21PA	—	.375	.875	4.8%	0
Night100PA	.023	.244	.574	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty42PA	.026	.237	.523
Runners On58PA	.021	.292	.678
RISP35PA	.035	.414	.885

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs38PA	—	.214	.619
1 Out41PA	.026	.237	.505
2 Outs42PA	.027	.333	.738

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.