Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.3%

+478

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (LHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

13.5%

+640

RBI 1+

36.6%

+173

Hits 1+

60.3%

-152

Hits 2+

18.3%

+446

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

30.1%

95% CI · 29.5–30.6%

+233

Fair odds

1st AB

7.6%

Through AB2

15.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact+23%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Gage Jump (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·91F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0529 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+23% (×1.23)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 4 HR

Now

+295

High

+4000

Low

+245

Med

+358

Avg

+638

🐾🐾🐾🐾+295

Low +245🐾 HR money zoneHigh +4000

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 4× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

18.2

Proj PA

335

HR / PA

.054

ISO

.245

wOBA

.354

wRC+

112

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

26.9

Hard%

42.0

FB%

44.7

Pull%

53.3

Soft%

16.0

GB%

33.3

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

28.6

Hard%

44.4

FB%

38.9

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

16.7

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

26.4

Hard%

41.2

FB%

46.5

Pull%

56.1

Soft%

15.8

GB%

28.1

Home

HR/FB

22.6

Hard%

43.8

FB%

42.5

Pull%

54.8

Soft%

19.2

GB%

34.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

30.6

Hard%

40.3

FB%

46.8

Pull%

51.9

Soft%

13.0

GB%

32.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
Elite power: .273 ISO
15.3% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (72% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.040 OPS over last 15 days
92°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)
Elite barrel% (15.3)
High barrels/PA (8.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.245↑ vs season .23160 PA · 15d

OPS

1.040

ISO

.428

RBI

K-BB

18-10

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ ATH	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-11	vs CHC	5	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-10	vs CHC	3	2	0	0	1	1	.667
06-09	vs CHC	3	1	1	2	2	0	1.333
💣 413ft · 106.0 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	vs MIL	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 424ft · 99.9 EV · Changeup
06-06	vs MIL	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-05	vs MIL	3	1	1	2	1	1	1.333
💣 411ft · 106.4 EV · Curveball
06-03	@ LAA	3	1	0	0	1	1	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL27PA	.280	.339	17.6	58.8	53	17.5
🐾SLSlidervL7PA	.571	.283	33.3	66.7	67	30.8
🐾STSweepervL9PA	.333	.146	50.0	50.0	100	66.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.280	.339	17.6	58.8	53	17.5	88	27
vs RHP	.192	.297	17.2	51.7	48	21.6	125	56

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.571	.283	33.3	66.7	67	30.8	88	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.369	27.3	54.5	86	41.0	125	40

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.333	.146	50.0	50.0	100	66.7	88	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.208	.339	5.9	29.4	88	44.6	125	27

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Goodman.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed4 of 29 HRs · 14%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 21 of 29 career HRs (72%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.273

Barrel %

15.3

Hard Hit %

46.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.327

xBA

.231

Brl / PA %

8.60

Max EV (mph)

112.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.4

Avg EV on HRs

106.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

4/13

Crushed (105+ mph)

8/13

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

8.60

Sampled across 13 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
49
xwOBA
.339
Whiff%
17.5
HH%
58.8
BRL%
17.6
Pull%
53
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.283
Whiff%
30.8
HH%
66.7
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
67
STSweepervs LHP
Use%
9
xwOBA
.146
Whiff%
66.7
HH%
50.0
BRL%
50.0
Pull%
100

Gage Jump (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.4	4.2	29.2	54	.288	13.5
SLSlider	23.8	6.7	33.3	67	.356	13.3
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.6	0.0	33.3	83	.208	38.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.8	33.3	62	.283	14.7	28

SLSlider24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	50.0	67	.506	—	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	22.2	67	.276	15.4	13

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	75	.116	50.0	7
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 38.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .480). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

13 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider4

FF4-Seam Fastball3

CUCurveball2

STSweeper2

SISinker1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP191PA	.289	.538	.868	15.5%	14
🐾vs LHP75PA	.232	.464	.757	15.0%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home130PA	.236	.447	.747	9.3%	7
🐾Away136PA	.307	.581	.919	21.7%	11

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day84PA	.130	.312	.562	7.5%	3
🐾Night182PA	.342	.615	.967	19.0%	15

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty97PA	.274	.516	.805	7
Runners On117PA	.228	.416	.707	6
RISP69PA	.207	.397	.701	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs75PA	.424	.788	1.228	8
1 Out97PA	.258	.438	.675	7
2 Outs94PA	.169	.386	.695	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-041PA	.350	.575	.819	4
1-020PA	.600	1.150	1.700	4
0-129PA	.172	.517	.862	1
2-03PA	1.500	2.000	2.667	1
0-240PA	.282	.436	.586	3
3-08PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-241PA	.103	.231	.402	1
2-247PA	.234	.447	.660	3
3-236PA	.136	.318	.818	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Fri.