Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.4%

+860

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 84

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.7%

+928

RBI 1+

33.2%

+201

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (2-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.7%

95% CI · 8.4–9.0%

+1050

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP-5%
SP Contact-11%
Discipline-1%

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0322 · blended_2sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.7

Proj PA

156

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.152

wOBA

.293

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

28.6

FB%

35.4

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

8.2

GB%

45.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

50.0

FB%

70.0

Pull%

20.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

20.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

23.1

FB%

26.3

Pull%

41.0

Soft%

5.1

GB%

52.6

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

23.1

FB%

40.0

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

7.7

GB%

40.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

34.8

FB%

30.4

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

8.7

GB%

52.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
Park drag (84)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Watson.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Tonight's SP throws (top 3)

FF 28%
SI 22%
SL 20%

Heatmap below = batter's season-wide damage on all pitches. Per-pitch slices populate on the next pipeline refresh.

Hover / tap a cell to inspect.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.