Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.2%

+790

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 78

2+ RBI

10.2%

+882

RBI 1+

33.6%

+197

Hits 1+

65.8%

-193

Hits 2+

23.7%

+321

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.9%

95% CI · 3.7–4.1%

+2466

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

2.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-22%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact+5%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast-4%
SP Statcast+4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·90F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0119 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park-22% (×0.78)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-4% (×0.96)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+790

High

+9900

Low

+500

Med

+1190

Avg

+1669

🐾+790

Low +500🐾 HR money zoneHigh +9900

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.5

Proj PA

263

HR / PA

.006

ISO

.076

wOBA

.284

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

28.7

FB%

39.9

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

15.8

GB%

39.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

23.5

FB%

48.0

Pull%

35.3

Soft%

15.7

GB%

22.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

16.3

Hard%

30.8

FB%

36.4

Pull%

35.0

Soft%

15.8

GB%

46.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

25.9

FB%

38.0

Pull%

42.0

Soft%

21.0

GB%

43.0

Away

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

31.1

FB%

41.6

Pull%

28.9

Soft%

11.1

GB%

36.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Nationals Park suppresses HRs (78)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (78)
High barrels/PA (4.8%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.229↓ vs season .26337 PA · 15d

OPS

.699

ISO

.200

RBI

K-BB

12-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	K	SLG
06-12	vs SEA	3	0	2	—
06-10	@ SF	5	1	2	.200
06-09	@ SF	4	2	1	1.000
06-08	@ SF	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ ARI	3	0	1	—
06-06	@ ARI	4	1	1	.750
06-05	@ ARI	1	0	0	—
06-03	vs MIA	4	1	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR50PA	.256	.360	8.3	41.7	50	10.4
🐾SLSlidervR30PA	.107	.377	8.7	34.8	39	28.3
🐾SISinkervR46PA	.022	.274	2.7	37.8	60	4.5
🐾CHChangeupvR6PA	.600	.361	25.0	50.0	100	25.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.278	.349	7.7	61.5	31	14.0	87	20
vs RHPTONIGHT	.256	.360	8.3	41.7	50	10.4	91	50

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.044	0.0	20.0	80	22.2	87	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.107	.377	8.7	34.8	39	28.3	91	30

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.090	.429	0.0	36.4	27	12.5	87	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	.022	.274	2.7	37.8	60	4.5	91	46

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.077	.274	0.0	8.3	67	32.1	87	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.600	.361	25.0	50.0	100	25.0	91	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

111

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Young.

Season Statcast

ISO

.160

Barrel %

6.4

Hard Hit %

37.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.312

xBA

.263

Brl / PA %

4.80

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.3

Avg EV on HRs

102.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/5

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

4.80

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.360
Whiff%
10.4
HH%
41.7
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
50
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.377
Whiff%
28.3
HH%
34.8
BRL%
8.7
Pull%
39
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.274
Whiff%
4.5
HH%
37.8
BRL%
2.7
Pull%
60
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 46 PA this season.

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .363). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP163PA	.170	.399	.675	7.1%	7
vs LHP68PA	.129	.371	.670	3.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home109PA	.138	.386	.682	3.6%	4
Away122PA	.176	.395	.665	8.3%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day122PA	.123	.325	.579	5.2%	3
Night109PA	.198	.465	.780	7.2%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty80PA	.120	.293	.518	1
Runners On100PA	.233	.500	.833	6
RISP54PA	.143	.367	.663	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs78PA	.054	.351	.676	1
1 Out71PA	.212	.364	.575	3
2 Outs82PA	.213	.453	.758	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-022PA	.143	.381	.608	1
1-015PA	.143	.429	.762	0
0-131PA	.032	.355	.677	0
2-03PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-217PA	—	.250	.544	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-239PA	.106	.211	.339	1
2-240PA	.411	.667	.942	4
3-223PA	—	.067	.458	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.