Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.9%

+817

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Lake Bachar (RHP) (1.25 HR/9) · park 86

2+ RBI

10.0%

+900

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

16.2%

95% CI · 15.8–16.6%

+518

Fair odds

1st AB

4.6%

Through AB2

8.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-14%
Temp+5%
vs SP+7%
Contact+23%
SP Contact+7%
SP Statcast-4%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Lake Bachar (RHP)

·88F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0372 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+7% (×1.07) · blended_proj

Park-14% (×0.86)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+23% (×1.23)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.7

Proj PA

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.176

wOBA

.319

wRC+

100

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

44.4

FB%

66.7

Pull%

11.1

Soft%

0.0

GB%

33.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

50.0

Hard%

50.0

FB%

50.0

Pull%

0.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

50.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

50.0

FB%

66.7

Pull%

0.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

33.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

PNC Park suppresses HRs (86)
88°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (86)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.000↓ vs season .2503 PA · 15d

OPS

.000

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Game Log · Last 7

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs MIA	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs LAD	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
05-27	vs CHC	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
05-26	vs CHC	4	1	1	3	1	2	1.000
💣 415ft · 105.5 EV · Slider
05-24	@ TOR	3	1	1	2	0	2	1.333
💣 345ft · 94.3 EV · Sweeper
05-23	@ TOR	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
05-22	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	1	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seamer8PA	—	.121	0.0	50.0	100	50.0
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

PNC Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Valdez.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Lake Bachar · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.121
Whiff%
50.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
SLSlider
Use%
24
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
STSweeper
Use%
20
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Lake Bachar (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	32.9	8.6	51.4	51	.292	15.9
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.9	5.9	37.5	71	.254	42.4
STSweeper	19.5	11.8	52.9	77	.273	20.8
CUCurveball	11.9	0.0	57.1	57	.235	30.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.5	57.1	52	.321	14.8	28
vs RHB	7.1	42.9	50	.250	15.8	19

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	30.0	90	.291	52.4	25
vs RHB	0.0	42.9	43	.176	31.2	12

STSweeper20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	66.7	67	.384	16.7	9
vs RHB	9.1	45.5	82	.224	21.6	20

CUCurveball12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	50.0	50	.185	23.5	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	66.7	67	.286	44.4	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 42.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Tonight's SP throws (top 3)

FF 33%
SL 24%
ST 20%

Heatmap below = batter's season-wide damage on all pitches. Per-pitch slices populate on the next pipeline refresh.

Hover / tap a cell to inspect.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP12PA	.273	.364	.531	—	1
vs LHP9PA	.375	.500	.722	40.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home12PA	.273	.364	.531	50.0%	1
Away9PA	.375	.500	.722	—	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day5PA	.600	.800	1.000	—	1
Night16PA	.215	.286	.474	42.9%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty4PA	—	—	—	0
Runners On14PA	.461	.615	.829	2
RISP5PA	.750	1.000	1.400	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs7PA	—	—	.143	0
1 Out9PA	.375	.500	.722	1
2 Outs5PA	.600	.800	1.000	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-15PA	.600	.800	1.000	1
2-01PA	—	—	—	0
0-22PA	—	—	—	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-23PA	—	—	—	0
2-26PA	.500	.667	.833	1
3-22PA	—	—	.500	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.