Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.9%

+815

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 79

2+ RBI

10.0%

+899

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.6%

95% CI · 10.2–10.9%

+847

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Contact+24%
SP Contact+7%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0262 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+815

High

+1070

Low

+460

Med

+745

Avg

+747

+815

Low +460High +1070

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.9

Proj PA

100

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.151

wOBA

.309

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

45.9

FB%

37.8

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

5.4

GB%

40.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

44.1

FB%

35.3

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

5.9

GB%

44.1

Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

40.9

FB%

31.8

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

4.5

GB%

45.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

53.3

FB%

46.7

Pull%

26.7

Soft%

6.7

GB%

33.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.130↓ vs season .25028 PA · 15d

OPS

.590

ISO

.174

RBI

K-BB

7-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SD	1	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-16	vs SD	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-15	vs SD	3	1	0	2	0	0	.667
06-12	@ MIN	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 374ft · 97.5 EV · Sweeper
06-09	@ NYM	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	vs CIN	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	vs CIN	3	0	0	1	2	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball17PA	.063	.355	16.7	50.0	8	16.7
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.077	.314	9.1	45.5	9	7.7	74	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Crooks.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.355
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
50.0
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
8
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .934). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 28 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP32PA	.142	.321	.602	4.8%	1
vs LHP5PA	.250	.500	.900	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home25PA	.096	.286	.606	—	0
🐾Away12PA	.273	.455	.705	25.0%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day8PA	.428	.571	.821	20.0%	1
🐾Night29PA	.080	.280	.590	5.6%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty10PA	—	.125	.425	0
Runners On16PA	.285	.571	.946	1
RISP10PA	.445	.778	1.178	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs16PA	.267	.400	.588	1
1 Out11PA	—	.182	.364	0
2 Outs10PA	.167	.500	1.100	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.