Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

13.2%

+657

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

11.3%

+788

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.8%

95% CI · 10.5–11.2%

+823

Fair odds

1st AB

2.7%

Through AB2

5.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
vs SP-12%
Contact+18%
SP Contact-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Connor Prielipp (LHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (season) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0253 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 4 games

Now

+655

High

+815

Low

+585

Med

+690

Avg

+695

+655

Low +585High +815

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.0

Proj PA

190

HR / PA

.026

ISO

.139

wOBA

.308

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

35.7

FB%

42.9

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

0.0

GB%

35.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

33.3

FB%

41.7

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

0.0

GB%

41.7

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.2

FB%

22.2

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

0.0

GB%

44.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
Connor Prielipp stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .25028 PA · 15d

OPS

.646

ISO

.160

RBI

K-BB

8-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIN	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 374ft · 97.5 EV · Sweeper
06-09	@ NYM	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	vs CIN	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	vs CIN	3	0	0	1	2	2	—
06-02	vs TEX	4	2	0	1	0	0	.750
06-01	vs TEX	2	1	0	0	0	1	.500
05-30	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball10PA	—	.474	33.3	50.0	17	20.0
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.388	20.0	40.0	20	16.7	—	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

107

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Crooks.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Connor Prielipp · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SLSlider
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.474
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
17
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Connor Prielipp (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	31.7	12.8	43.6	51	.293	19.6
FF4-Seam Fastball	30.6	8.3	30.6	33	.397	10.0
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	20.0	90	.074	23.8
CHChangeup	12.6	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	21.1	47.4	42	.314	17.9	28
vs RHB	5.0	40.0	60	.278	20.6	38

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	33	.494	20.0	11
vs RHB	3.3	23.3	33	.361	6.8	41

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	75	.127	5.3	5
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	16.7	100	.061	31.8	21

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .934). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP24PA	.136	.318	.568	8.3%	1
🐾vs LHP4PA	.334	.667	1.167	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home16PA	.072	.286	.599	—	0
🐾Away12PA	.273	.455	.705	40.0%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day6PA	.500	.667	.834	—	1
Night22PA	.052	.263	.581	10.0%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty9PA	—	.125	.347	0
Runners On9PA	.375	.750	1.194	1
RISP6PA	.600	1.000	1.500	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs14PA	.308	.462	.676	1
1 Out9PA	—	.222	.444	0
2 Outs5PA	—	.333	.933	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-02PA	1.500	2.000	2.500	1
1-02PA	—	—	—	0
0-13PA	—	—	—	0
0-21PA	—	—	—	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-23PA	.334	.667	1.000	0
2-28PA	—	.125	.250	0
3-21PA	—	—	—	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.