Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

22.9%

+338

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Anthony Kay (LHP) (1.36 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

16.6%

+504

RBI 1+

39.4%

+154

Hits 1+

69.0%

-223

Hits 2+

27.3%

+267

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

32.6%

95% CI · 32.1–33.1%

+207

Fair odds

1st AB

9.6%

Through AB2

18.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
vs SP+7%
Lineup+3%
Contact+17%
SP Contact-13%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Anthony Kay (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0536 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+7% (×1.07) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 2 HR

Now

+340

High

+3495

Low

+305

Med

+415

Avg

+810

🐾🐾+340

Low +305🐾 HR money zoneHigh +3495

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+3902026-06-05vs BOSbook line

HomeBat 2ndoff RHPCurveball

🐾+3052026-05-29vs ATHbook line

AwayBat 2ndoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

18.7

Proj PA

358

HR / PA

.052

ISO

.241

wOBA

.370

wRC+

136

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

29.2

Hard%

40.3

FB%

36.9

Pull%

50.6

Soft%

10.2

GB%

42.6

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

29.4

Hard%

26.9

FB%

32.7

Pull%

51.9

Soft%

13.5

GB%

46.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

29.2

Hard%

46.0

FB%

38.7

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

8.9

GB%

41.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

34.5

Hard%

29.7

FB%

45.3

Pull%

48.4

Soft%

14.1

GB%

32.8

Away

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

46.4

FB%

32.1

Pull%

51.8

Soft%

8.0

GB%

48.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Elite power: .318 ISO
15.3% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (53% of career HRs)
Park boost (117)
Elite barrel% (15.3)
High barrels/PA (9.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.233↓ vs season .28350 PA · 15d

OPS

.735

ISO

.162

RBI

K-BB

13-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	@ TOR	5	2	1	2	0	2	1.000
💣 381ft · 101.2 EV · Slider
06-13	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-12	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	2	0	—
06-10	@ CLE	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-09	@ CLE	5	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-08	@ CLE	3	2	0	0	2	0	.667
06-07	vs BOS	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	vs BOS	3	2	1	1	1	1	1.667
💣 377ft · 96.9 EV · Curveball

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL24PA	.450	.462	15.4	53.8	46	27.8
🐾STSweepervL10PA	.333	.320	16.7	33.3	100	25.0
🐾SISinkervL18PA	.062	.280	0.0	27.3	55	16.7
🐾FCCutter30PA	.077	.344	0.0	22.7	70	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.450	.462	15.4	53.8	46	27.8	147	24
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.800	.608	37.9	69.0	59	12.8	182	41

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.333	.320	16.7	33.3	100	25.0	147	10
vs RHP	.083	.329	16.7	66.7	83	14.3	182	15

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.062	.280	0.0	27.3	55	16.7	147	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.260	.402	13.0	65.2	52	11.4	182	29

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.087	.390	0.0	25.0	65	10.6	182	27

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rice.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected6 of 30 HRs · 20%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 16 of 30 career HRs (53%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.318

Barrel %

15.3

Hard Hit %

48.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.389

xBA

.283

Brl / PA %

9.70

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.4

Avg EV on HRs

105.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

392

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/17

Crushed (105+ mph)

10/17

Avg LA on HRs

26.8°

Brl / PA %

9.70

Sampled across 17 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Anthony Kay · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.462
Whiff%
27.8
HH%
53.8
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
46
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweepervs LHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.320
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
33.3
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
100
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.280
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
27.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.

Anthony Kay (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	25.1	14.3	39.7	56	.395	14.0
STSweeper	20.6	4.2	31.8	67	.313	11.1
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	10.9	54.9	71	.407	19.2
FCCutter	17.7	17.0	36.1	72	.450	10.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	100	.091	30.8	12
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.8	44.3	54	.436	12.0	86

STSweeper21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	22.2	56	.240	17.8	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	40.0	73	.365	6.1	24

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.5	40.9	73	.296	20.6	35
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.2	66.7	70	.499	17.4	41

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	8.3	25.0	33	.406	14.3	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	42.9	86	.472	9.7	45

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .495). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

17 HRs this season

vs RHP 12vs LHP 5

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball9

CHChangeup3

SLSlider2

STSweeper1

SISinker1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 19 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP195PA	.347	.646	1.046	17.0%	14
🐾vs LHP84PA	.253	.533	.890	9.4%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home110PA	.369	.630	1.003	11.6%	10
Away169PA	.286	.599	.995	16.8%	9

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day102PA	.393	.674	1.047	21.1%	9
🐾Night177PA	.273	.573	.968	10.7%	10

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty109PA	.239	.479	.809	6
Runners On113PA	.337	.685	1.136	7
RISP66PA	.300	.580	1.004	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.313	.614	.977	6
1 Out95PA	.438	.738	1.127	10
2 Outs93PA	.198	.474	.883	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Wed.