Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.8%

+463

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (1.11 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

13.8%

+626

RBI 1+

36.9%

+171

Hits 1+

69.2%

-224

Hits 2+

27.5%

+264

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

39.1%

95% CI · 38.5–39.6%

+156

Fair odds

1st AB

12.1%

Through AB2

22.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+13%
Lineup+3%
Contact+18%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0543 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+13% (×1.13) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+370

High

+1000

Low

+215

Med

+458

Avg

+507

+370

Low +215High +1000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.8

Proj PA

274

HR / PA

.058

ISO

.255

wOBA

.371

wRC+

140

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

29.3

Hard%

43.5

FB%

39.9

Pull%

49.2

Soft%

9.3

GB%

42.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

26.7

Hard%

34.8

FB%

33.7

Pull%

52.8

Soft%

13.5

GB%

47.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

30.4

Hard%

48.4

FB%

43.4

Pull%

47.2

Soft%

6.9

GB%

39.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

31.9

Hard%

35.4

FB%

49.0

Pull%

47.9

Soft%

12.5

GB%

32.3

Away

HR/FB

26.9

Hard%

48.7

FB%

34.2

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

7.2

GB%

48.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Elite power: .320 ISO
15.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (53% of career HRs)
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
Elite barrel% (15.4)
High barrels/PA (9.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.234↓ vs season .28456 PA · 15d

OPS

.804

ISO

.213

RBI

K-BB

14-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CHW	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-16	vs CHW	4	1	1	2	2	1	1.000
💣 371ft · 96.9 EV · Curveball
06-14	@ TOR	5	2	1	2	0	2	1.000
💣 381ft · 101.2 EV · Slider
06-13	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-12	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	2	0	—
06-10	@ CLE	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-09	@ CLE	5	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-08	@ CLE	3	2	0	0	2	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball61PA	.680	.553	31.8	64.1	52	22.7
🐾CUCurveball36PA	.367	.302	5.9	33.3	71	31.7
🐾SLSlider48PA	.282	.396	13.8	58.6	79	36.3
🐾SISinker46PA	.166	.357	8.8	54.5	53	13.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.429	.453	14.3	50.0	43	26.3	150	26
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.757	.619	40.0	70.0	57	12.5	183	44

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.343	0.0	16.7	50	29.4	150	11
vs RHP	.476	.302	9.1	36.4	82	31.8	183	25

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.368	.370	15.4	61.5	92	40.6	150	20
vs RHP	.200	.403	12.5	56.2	69	30.0	183	27

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.062	.280	0.0	27.3	55	16.7	150	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.260	.402	13.0	65.2	52	10.9	183	29

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rice.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed16 of 30 HRs · 53%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 16 of 30 career HRs (53%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.320

Barrel %

15.4

Hard Hit %

48.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.393

xBA

.284

Brl / PA %

9.70

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.4

Avg EV on HRs

105.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

392

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/17

Crushed (105+ mph)

10/17

Avg LA on HRs

26.8°

Brl / PA %

9.70

Sampled across 17 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.553
Whiff%
22.7
HH%
64.1
BRL%
31.8
Pull%
52
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
22
xwOBA
.302
Whiff%
31.7
HH%
33.3
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
71
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
.396
Whiff%
36.3
HH%
58.6
BRL%
13.8
Pull%
79
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Sean Burke arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	36.9	11.8	37.3	48	.305	19.5
CUCurveball	21.7	—	40.5	—	.292	19.1
SLSlider	17.1	5.6	32.4	69	.290	17.4
SISinker	16.0	2.3	34.9	51	.333	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.9	40.7	58	.362	17.5	92
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.219	22.8	64

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	37.5	50	.284	21.7	17
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	75	.295	14.8	38

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	50.0	50	.358	19.0	24
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .495). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

17 HRs this season

vs RHP 12vs LHP 5

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball9

CHChangeup3

SLSlider2

STSweeper1

SISinker1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 20 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP201PA	.355	.651	1.049	17.4%	15
vs LHP89PA	.244	.526	.897	8.9%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home121PA	.370	.630	1.010	12.0%	11
Away169PA	.286	.599	.995	16.8%	9

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day102PA	.393	.674	1.047	21.1%	9
🐾Night188PA	.279	.576	.975	11.0%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty111PA	.234	.469	.793	6
Runners On120PA	.350	.701	1.159	8
RISP69PA	.289	.558	.978	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs95PA	.306	.600	.968	6
1 Out97PA	.463	.768	1.160	11
2 Outs98PA	.188	.463	.871	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.