Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.2%

+560

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

12.3%

+711

RBI 1+

35.6%

+181

Hits 1+

54.4%

-119

Hits 2+

13.5%

+644

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

53wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

37wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.4%

95% CI · 6.1–6.7%

+1462

Fair odds

1st AB

1.7%

Through AB2

3.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Contact-20%
SP Contact+12%
Statcast-17%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0180 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-20% (×0.80)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+665

High

+1385

Low

+635

Med

+825

Avg

+885

+665

Low +635High +1385

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.0

Proj PA

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.110

wOBA

.295

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

29.3

FB%

37.2

Pull%

31.0

Soft%

12.9

GB%

50.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

28.3

FB%

51.1

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

10.9

GB%

37.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.0

FB%

27.9

Pull%

22.9

Soft%

14.3

GB%

58.8

Home

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

30.0

FB%

41.7

Pull%

24.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

47.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.8

FB%

33.8

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

15.2

GB%

52.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for SHB)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.222↑ vs season .20018 PA · 15d

OPS

.444

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

5-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	K	SLG
06-17	@ NYY	4	3	0	.750
06-16	@ NYY	0	0	0	—
06-13	vs LAD	3	0	0	—
06-10	vs ATL	4	0	3	—
06-09	vs ATL	1	1	0	1.000
06-07	@ PHI	2	0	1	—
06-05	@ PHI	4	0	1	—
06-02	@ MIN	3	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball61PA	.075	.252	4.8	40.0	50	33.6
🐾CHChangeup25PA	—	.240	0.0	25.0	55	21.2
🐾SISinker29PA	—	.211	0.0	44.0	52	10.0
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.150	.240	7.7	30.8	62	25.5	37	23
vs RHP	.024	.258	3.4	44.8	45	31.7	53	48

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.242	0.0	38.5	54	10.0	37	19
vs RHP	—	.235	0.0	14.3	57	23.5	53	10

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.184	0.0	44.4	56	4.2	37	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.229	0.0	43.8	50	15.4	53	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

🐾vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Quero.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Confirmed0 of 1 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.051

Barrel %

1.9

Hard Hit %

34.3

xwOBA

.253

xBA

.200

Brl / PA %

1.30

Max EV (mph)

106.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.8

Avg EV on HRs

103.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

407

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

24.0°

Brl / PA %

1.30

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.252
Whiff%
33.6
HH%
40.0
BRL%
4.8
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 61 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
.240
Whiff%
21.2
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 25 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
.211
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
44.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
52
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 29 PA this season.

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .330). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP98PA	.011	.241	.533	1.4%	0
vs LHP61PA	.120	.260	.490	2.2%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home76PA	.108	.354	.661	1.9%	2
🐾Away83PA	—	.153	.385	1.6%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day65PA	.127	.327	.619	2.1%	2
🐾Night94PA	—	.195	.445	1.4%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty41PA	—	.135	.355	0
Runners On90PA	.054	.230	.480	1
RISP52PA	.108	.243	.503	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs47PA	.073	.390	.746	1
1 Out55PA	.093	.349	.694	1
2 Outs57PA	—	.057	.180	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.