Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.5%

+1083

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) (1.05 HR/9) · park 101

2+ RBI

8.6%

+1056

RBI 1+

32.2%

+210

Hits 1+

53.8%

-116

Hits 2+

13.0%

+669

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

56wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

22wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.0%

95% CI · 4.8–5.2%

+1903

Fair odds

1st AB

1.1%

Through AB2

2.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+1%
Temp+5%
vs SP-16%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-17%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·85F game
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0169 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+1% (×1.01)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+1085

High

+1210

Low

+635

Med

+825

Avg

+883

+1085

Low +635High +1210

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.0

Proj PA

170

HR / PA

.018

ISO

.102

wOBA

.295

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

26.5

FB%

35.8

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

11.2

GB%

50.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

28.2

FB%

52.6

Pull%

46.2

Soft%

7.7

GB%

36.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.4

FB%

24.6

Pull%

25.4

Soft%

13.6

GB%

59.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

29.8

FB%

37.8

Pull%

25.5

Soft%

10.6

GB%

51.1

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

23.5

FB%

34.0

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

11.8

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
86°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.227↑ vs season .19723 PA · 15d

OPS

.581

ISO

.137

RBI

K-BB

6-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-10	vs ATL	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-09	vs ATL	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-07	@ PHI	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ PHI	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-02	@ MIN	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-01	@ MIN	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
05-30	vs DET	3	2	1	2	0	0	1.667
💣 371ft · 97.7 EV · Curveball
05-29	vs DET	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR46PA	.025	.253	3.7	44.4	44	31.6
🐾FCCuttervR8PA	—	.327	0.0	33.3	50	6.7
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.150	.240	7.7	30.8	62	26.5	22	23
vs RHPTONIGHT	.025	.253	3.7	44.4	44	31.6	56	46

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.327	0.0	33.3	50	6.7	56	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

101

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Rate Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Quero.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.053

Barrel %

2.0

Hard Hit %

32.7

xwOBA

.252

xBA

.197

Brl / PA %

1.30

Max EV (mph)

106.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.8

Avg EV on HRs

103.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

407

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

24.0°

Brl / PA %

1.30

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Yoshinobu Yamamoto · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FSSplit-Finger
Use%
27
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.253
Whiff%
31.6
HH%
44.4
BRL%
3.7
Pull%
44
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 46 PA this season.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.327
Whiff%
6.7
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FSSplit-Finger	27.4	3.2	33.9	73	.197	20.3
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	14.0	52.4	47	.357	22.5
FCCutter	13.7	12.9	23.3	71	.390	20.6
CUCurveball	12.8	8.3	27.3	67	.346	11.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FSSplit-Finger27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	2.4	36.6	73	.231	15.9	53
vs RHB	4.5	31.8	73	.151	24.6	39

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.0	52.0	60	.394	18.0	40
vs RHB	16.7	55.6	28	.316	30.2	34

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	10.5	26.3	74	.441	21.4	28
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	67	.293	37.5	16

CUCurveball13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	7.1	79	.251	15.4	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	50.0	50	.572	0.0	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .330). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CHW)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Rate Field (330/400/335 ft) · elev 595ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats S · Switch hitter

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP93PA	.012	.244	.541	1.5%	0
vs LHP59PA	.125	.229	.432	2.3%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home73PA	.113	.371	.690	2.0%	2
Away79PA	—	.118	.323	1.7%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day62PA	.134	.346	.652	2.3%	2
Night90PA	—	.167	.394	1.5%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty37PA	—	.152	.395	0
Runners On88PA	.055	.208	.441	1
RISP52PA	.108	.243	.503	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs44PA	.079	.368	.701	1
1 Out53PA	.097	.341	.681	1
2 Outs55PA	—	.059	.186	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-027PA	.120	.520	.927	1
1-09PA	—	.429	.873	0
0-116PA	—	.188	.375	0
2-06PA	—	.167	.333	0
0-211PA	—	—	—	0
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-224PA	—	.087	.170	0
2-229PA	—	.111	.249	0
3-223PA	.059	.118	.422	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.