Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.5%

+852

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 84

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.8%

+923

RBI 1+

33.3%

+201

Hits 1+

59.4%

-146

Hits 2+

17.5%

+472

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

16.0%

95% CI · 15.6–16.4%

+525

Fair odds

1st AB

4.2%

Through AB2

8.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP-5%
Contact+20%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+16%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0422 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+16% (×1.16)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+760

High

+2605

Low

+375

Med

+745

Avg

+799

+760

Low +375High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.2

Proj PA

225

HR / PA

.049

ISO

.216

wOBA

.334

wRC+

114

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.9

Hard%

34.1

FB%

41.1

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

11.4

GB%

36.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

25.6

FB%

33.3

Pull%

56.4

Soft%

17.9

GB%

38.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

15.3

Hard%

36.5

FB%

43.4

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

9.5

GB%

35.3

Home

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

28.6

FB%

35.5

Pull%

55.8

Soft%

9.1

GB%

43.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

38.4

FB%

45.5

Pull%

37.4

Soft%

13.1

GB%

30.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (58% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .847 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (84)
High barrels/PA (6.3%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.281↑ vs season .22637 PA · 15d

OPS

.847

ISO

.188

RBI

K-BB

9-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ MIL	4	1	0	0	2	.250
06-16	@ MIL	3	0	0	1	2	—
06-13	vs DET	1	1	0	0	0	1.000
06-12	vs DET	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs NYY	4	2	0	1	1	.500
06-08	vs NYY	1	1	1	1	0	1.000
06-07	@ TEX	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	@ TEX	3	1	1	2	1	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball62PA	.094	.333	10.3	51.5	76	26.8
🐾SISinker36PA	.182	.467	16.0	56.5	68	24.6
🐾SLSlider29PA	.240	.256	33.3	50.0	75	50.0
🐾FCCutter20PA	.187	.296	7.7	46.2	69	21.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.715	20.0	40.0	100	26.3	147	8
vs RHP	.092	.300	8.8	50.0	74	22.5	92	62

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.076	.572	16.7	50.0	83	15.4	147	13
vs RHP	.218	.416	15.4	61.5	54	29.4	92	26

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.231	.091	20.0	40.0	40	60.0	147	13
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.400	.356	42.9	57.1	100	37.5	92	19

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.214	.264	9.1	54.5	64	19.2	92	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Manzardo.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Confirmed3 of 26 HRs · 12%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 15 of 26 career HRs (58%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.154

Barrel %

11.4

Hard Hit %

42.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.313

xBA

.226

Brl / PA %

6.30

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Avg EV on HRs

105.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

408

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

32.2°

Brl / PA %

6.30

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.333
Whiff%
26.8
HH%
51.5
BRL%
10.3
Pull%
76
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
.467
Whiff%
24.6
HH%
56.5
BRL%
16.0
Pull%
68
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
.256
Whiff%
50.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 29 PA this season.

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .445). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SL🐾Slider2

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP181PA	.163	.377	.681	11.3%	6
vs LHP41PA	.111	.444	.859	13.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home112PA	.095	.337	.685	12.9%	2
🐾Away110PA	.210	.440	.740	11.0%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day65PA	.197	.411	.719	15.4%	3
Night157PA	.136	.381	.712	10.4%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.227	.453	.802	3
Runners On108PA	.145	.392	.707	3
RISP60PA	.146	.364	.631	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs77PA	.060	.242	.541	1
1 Out71PA	.355	.726	1.163	5
2 Outs74PA	.060	.224	.467	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.