Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

14.8%

+576

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Brandon Sproat (RHP) (1.80 HR/9) · park 84

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

12.1%

+724

RBI 1+

35.4%

+182

Hits 1+

60.0%

-150

Hits 2+

18.0%

+456

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.1%

95% CI · 19.6–20.5%

+399

Fair odds

1st AB

5.5%

Through AB2

10.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP+1%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+6%
Statcast+19%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Brandon Sproat (RHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0430 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+19% (×1.19)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+575

High

+690

Low

+370

Med

+500

Avg

+513

🐾+575

Low +370🐾 HR money zoneHigh +690

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+6002026-06-02vs NYYbook line

AwayBat 4thoff RHPCutter

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.8

Proj PA

298

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.208

wOBA

.334

wRC+

112

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.6

Hard%

35.8

FB%

40.3

Pull%

47.5

Soft%

13.3

GB%

37.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

34.8

FB%

39.1

Pull%

56.5

Soft%

26.1

GB%

34.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

36.1

FB%

40.6

Pull%

45.4

Soft%

10.3

GB%

37.5

Home

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

29.8

FB%

32.1

Pull%

59.6

Soft%

10.5

GB%

44.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

41.3

FB%

47.6

Pull%

36.5

Soft%

15.9

GB%

30.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Brandon Sproat is leaky — 1.80 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (58% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.096 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (84)
High barrels/PA (6.5%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.80 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.345↑ vs season .22934 PA · 15d

OPS

1.096

ISO

.310

RBI

K-BB

7-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs DET	1	1	0	0	0	1.000
06-12	vs DET	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs NYY	4	2	0	1	1	.500
06-08	vs NYY	1	1	1	1	0	1.000
06-07	@ TEX	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	@ TEX	3	1	1	2	1	.667
06-05	@ TEX	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-04	@ NYY	1	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR26PA	.218	.416	15.4	61.5	54	30.0
🐾FCCuttervR18PA	.214	.264	9.1	54.5	64	20.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR59PA	.098	.299	9.1	48.5	73	20.3
🐾CUCurveballvR10PA	—	.290	0.0	—	75	7.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.083	.620	18.2	54.5	82	16.0	162	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.218	.416	15.4	61.5	54	30.0	93	26

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.214	.264	9.1	54.5	64	20.0	93	18

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.719	20.0	40.0	100	26.3	162	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.098	.299	9.1	48.5	73	20.3	93	59

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.290	0.0	0.0	75	7.7	93	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Manzardo.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected3 of 26 HRs · 12%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 15 of 26 career HRs (58%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.160

Barrel %

11.7

Hard Hit %

42.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.317

xBA

.229

Brl / PA %

6.50

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Avg EV on HRs

105.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

408

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

32.2°

Brl / PA %

6.50

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Brandon Sproat · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.416
Whiff%
30.0
HH%
61.5
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
54
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.264
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
54.5
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
64
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.299
Whiff%
20.3
HH%
48.5
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
73

Brandon Sproat (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	27.4	5.7	41.2	55	.341	17.4
FCCutter	26.4	4.9	38.5	63	.371	14.7
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	19.5	11.5	57.7	42	.374	22.9
CUCurveball	11.5	27.8	58.8	61	.406	20.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	50.0	46	.368	20.7	36
vs RHB	3.2	32.3	61	.320	15.9	43

FCCutter26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.9	47.1	71	.466	10.5	21
vs RHB	4.2	33.3	58	.314	17.6	31

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	57.1	36	.316	19.6	28
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	50	.446	30.8	24

CUCurveball12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	36.4	36	.283	24.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	57.1	85.7	100	.866	13.3	9

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .445). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SL🐾Slider2

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP177PA	.168	.381	.686	11.4%	6
vs LHP37PA	.121	.485	.917	14.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home112PA	.095	.337	.685	12.9%	2
🐾Away102PA	.225	.462	.766	11.4%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day65PA	.197	.411	.719	15.4%	3
🐾Night149PA	.144	.394	.730	10.8%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty61PA	.236	.471	.832	3
Runners On103PA	.151	.398	.709	3
RISP57PA	.154	.385	.666	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs74PA	.062	.234	.518	1
1 Out68PA	.373	.763	1.219	5
2 Outs72PA	.062	.231	.481	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Wed.