Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

13.9%

+618

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

11.7%

+757

RBI 1+

35.0%

+186

Hits 1+

62.6%

-168

Hits 2+

20.5%

+389

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.1%

95% CI · 12.8–13.5%

+661

Fair odds

1st AB

3.4%

Through AB2

6.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+3%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact+16%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast+23%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·10 mph wind out to OF
·94F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0268 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+3% (×1.03)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+620

High

+8030

Low

+505

Med

+700

Avg

+1257

🐾+620

Low +505🐾 HR money zoneHigh +8030

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.1

Proj PA

305

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.163

wOBA

.325

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.7

Hard%

38.2

FB%

35.0

Pull%

33.1

Soft%

15.3

GB%

45.2

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

35.7

FB%

33.3

Pull%

26.2

Soft%

19.0

GB%

45.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.2

Hard%

39.1

FB%

35.7

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

13.9

GB%

45.2

Home

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

35.7

FB%

32.9

Pull%

31.4

Soft%

14.3

GB%

50.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

40.2

FB%

36.8

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

16.1

GB%

41.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
13.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, FC)
95°F — ball flies in warm air
Elite barrel% (13.4)
High barrels/PA (8.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.239↓ vs season .24451 PA · 15d

OPS

.792

ISO

.239

RBI

K-BB

14-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ KC	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200
06-10	@ LAA	4	1	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 408ft · 102.8 EV · Splitter
06-09	@ LAA	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-08	@ LAA	5	2	0	1	0	2	.800
06-07	vs ATH	3	2	0	0	1	1	.667
06-06	vs ATH	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs ATH	4	0	0	0	0	4	—
06-04	vs PIT	4	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL26PA	.273	.378	11.8	64.7	41	19.1
🐾CHChangeupvL12PA	.273	.414	28.6	28.6	57	57.1
🐾FCCuttervL4PA	—	.407	0.0	—	75	12.5
🐾CUCurveball10PA	.143	.338	0.0	40.0	80	40.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.273	.378	11.8	64.7	41	19.1	98	26
vs RHP	.213	.402	22.9	57.1	60	22.0	89	57

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.273	.414	28.6	28.6	57	57.1	98	12
vs RHP	—	.133	0.0	25.0	50	60.9	89	14

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.407	0.0	0.0	75	12.5	98	4
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.231	.465	16.7	33.3	50	26.9	89	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Smith.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 2 of 4 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.146

Barrel %

13.4

Hard Hit %

45.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.338

xBA

.244

Brl / PA %

8.10

Max EV (mph)

114.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.1

Avg EV on HRs

107.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

406

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.8°

Brl / PA %

8.10

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.378
Whiff%
19.1
HH%
64.7
BRL%
11.8
Pull%
41
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.414
Whiff%
57.1
HH%
28.6
BRL%
28.6
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs LHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.407
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .435). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP199PA	.133	.351	.659	16.1%	5
🐾vs LHP66PA	.173	.397	.700	9.3%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home127PA	.105	.257	.543	13.5%	2
🐾Away138PA	.173	.449	.775	15.1%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day99PA	.090	.295	.588	14.3%	2
🐾Night166PA	.174	.403	.718	14.4%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty92PA	.181	.434	.760	4
Runners On120PA	.096	.288	.565	1
RISP71PA	.121	.362	.705	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs78PA	.145	.348	.643	2
1 Out103PA	.113	.295	.570	2
2 Outs84PA	.173	.453	.810	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-023PA	.137	.364	.625	0
1-021PA	.048	.238	.429	0
0-118PA	.376	.688	1.021	2
2-06PA	1.000	1.333	1.667	2
0-224PA	.084	.167	.250	0
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-243PA	.048	.167	.306	0
2-251PA	.081	.265	.481	1
3-230PA	.048	.286	.752	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.