Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
18.3%
+447
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110
2+ RBI
14.1%
+612
RBI 1+
37.1%
+169
Hits 1+
64.7%
-183
Hits 2+
22.5%
+344
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter24.9%
95% CI · 24.4–25.4%
+301
Fair odds
1st AB
6.3%
Through AB2
12.8%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+10%
- Contact+16%
- Statcast+23%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
- ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0411 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park+10% (×1.10)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 15 games
Now
+325
High
+725
Low
+320
Med
+510
Avg
+515
+325
Low +320High +725
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
16.5
Proj PA
346
HR / PA
.048
ISO
.217
wOBA
.361
wRC+
125
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
17.3
Hard%
41.7
FB%
37.7
Pull%
32.2
Soft%
12.6
GB%
45.2
vs LHP
HR/FB
26.3
Hard%
47.6
FB%
45.2
Pull%
26.2
Soft%
21.4
GB%
33.3
vs RHP
HR/FB
14.3
Hard%
40.1
FB%
35.7
Pull%
33.8
Soft%
10.2
GB%
48.4
🐾Home
HR/FB
16.2
Hard%
40.0
FB%
41.1
Pull%
26.7
Soft%
12.2
GB%
40.0
Away
HR/FB
18.4
Hard%
43.1
FB%
34.9
Pull%
36.7
Soft%
12.8
GB%
49.5
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
5.0 🐾ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
- Great American Ball Park mild HR boost (+10)
- 14.6% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
- Park boost (110)
- Elite barrel% (14.6)
- High barrels/PA (9.6%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.182↓ vs season .25652 PA · 15d
OPS
.603
ISO
.113
HR
1
RBI
5
K-BB
13-8
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 | vs ARI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-12 | vs ARI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 06-10 | @ SD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 |
| 06-09 | @ SD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 |
| 💣 407ft · 106.9 EV · Splitter | ||||||||
| 06-08 | @ SD | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .333 |
| 06-07 | @ STL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-06 | @ STL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 06-05 | @ STL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI70PA | .180 | .438 | 15.8 | 45.5 | 40 | 21.2 |
| FC22PA | .181 | .427 | 9.5 | 40.0 | 38 | 22.7 |
| CH25PA | .200 | .392 | 6.7 | 46.2 | 67 | 33.3 |
| FF76PA | .312 | .370 | 16.7 | 59.5 | 24 | 35.7 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .231 | .456 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 42 | 8.7 | 144 | 15 |
| vs RHP | .160 | .434 | 13.3 | 48.9 | 40 | 15.1 | 107 | 58 |
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .334 | .390 | 12.5 | 37.5 | 50 | 15.0 | 144 | 9 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .071 | .445 | 7.7 | 46.2 | 31 | 29.6 | 107 | 14 |
CHChangeup
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .083 | .246 | 0.0 | 37.5 | 63 | 25.0 | 144 | 13 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .333 | .477 | 14.3 | 57.1 | 71 | 33.3 | 107 | 16 |
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES | .438 | .463 | 16.7 | 50.0 | 17 | 27.9 | 144 | 23 |
| vs RHP | .255 | .343 | 16.7 | 63.3 | 27 | 33.3 | 107 | 60 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
98
🐾vs RHB
110
vs SHB
104
Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Stewart.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).
1
·
1
2
🐾
3
·
1
4
🐾
1
5
🐾
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#2#4#5
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.201
Barrel %
14.6
Hard Hit %
41.2
Pull % (HRs)
33
xwOBA
.362
xBA
.256
Brl / PA %
9.60
Max EV (mph)
111.4
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
108.6
Avg EV on HRs
103.6
Avg HR Distance (ft)
388
HRs in sample
12
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/12
Crushed (105+ mph)
4/12
Avg LA on HRs
28.0°
Brl / PA %
9.60
Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .640). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft
12 HRs this season
vs RHP 9vs LHP 3
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5
SISinker3
SLSlider2
CHChangeup1
STSweeper1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
3
games since last HR
13
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 8.0 games · 36 PA (1 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP229PA | .174 | .423 | .755 | 12.1% | 8 |
| vs LHP72PA | .293 | .534 | .923 | 20.0% | 5 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home145PA | .218 | .460 | .812 | 16.1% | 6 |
| Away156PA | .185 | .437 | .777 | 12.3% | 7 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day130PA | .149 | .342 | .634 | 17.4% | 4 |
| 🐾Night171PA | .241 | .531 | .917 | 11.4% | 9 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty93PA | .213 | .493 | .912 | 3 |
| Runners On142PA | .192 | .432 | .749 | 7 |
| RISP82PA | .283 | .552 | .930 | 6 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs96PA | .230 | .460 | .762 | 5 |
| 1 Out90PA | .250 | .539 | .917 | 5 |
| 2 Outs115PA | .136 | .365 | .722 | 3 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.