Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

9.9%

+913

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Dustin May (RHP) (0.62 HR/9) · park 89

2+ RBI

9.4%

+960

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

61.8%

-162

Hits 2+

19.6%

+409

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.6%

95% CI · 12.2–13.0%

+695

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-11%
vs SP-21%
Contact+17%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast+12%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Dustin May (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0345 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-21% (×0.79) · blended_proj

Park-11% (×0.89)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+12% (×1.12)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 2 HR

Now

+470

High

+1070

Low

+365

Med

+578

Avg

+641

🐾🐾+470

Low +365🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1070

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4752026-06-13vs BALbook line

AwayBat 2ndoff RHPSlider

🐾+6752026-05-29vs WSHbook line

AwayBat 5thoff LHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.1

Proj PA

376

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.184

wOBA

.335

wRC+

116

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

36.0

FB%

40.7

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

14.5

GB%

38.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

25.5

FB%

36.2

Pull%

34.0

Soft%

17.0

GB%

44.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

39.6

FB%

42.2

Pull%

40.3

Soft%

13.7

GB%

36.3

Home

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

31.4

FB%

40.8

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

17.1

GB%

40.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

42.0

FB%

40.5

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

11.1

GB%

35.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Busch Stadium suppresses HRs (89)
Dustin May stingy: only 0.62 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (33% of career HRs)
Park drag (89)
High barrels/PA (6.9%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.62 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.224↓ vs season .23952 PA · 15d

OPS

.677

ISO

.184

RBI

K-BB

11-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ BAL	4	1	1	2	1	1	1.000
💣 372ft · 99.0 EV · Slider
06-12	@ BAL	5	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs CIN	4	2	0	0	0	0	.750
06-09	vs CIN	6	2	0	1	0	1	.667
06-08	vs CIN	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	vs NYM	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-06	vs NYM	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	vs NYM	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR78PA	.143	.336	17.0	55.3	49	22.6
🐾FCCuttervR15PA	—	.217	0.0	54.5	55	32.7
🐾STSweepervR13PA	—	.214	10.0	20.0	30	16.1
🐾SISinkervR23PA	.053	.483	5.9	64.7	59	9.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.077	.276	0.0	71.4	57	36.4	106	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.143	.336	17.0	55.3	49	22.6	63	78

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.217	0.0	54.5	55	32.7	63	15

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.186	0.0	20.0	40	37.5	106	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.214	10.0	20.0	30	16.1	63	13

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.305	.427	11.1	50.0	50	10.9	106	25
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.053	.483	5.9	64.7	59	9.8	63	23

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Busch Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Merrill.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 4 of 12 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#6#3#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.140

Barrel %

10.2

Hard Hit %

47.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.318

xBA

.239

Brl / PA %

6.90

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.4

Avg EV on HRs

105.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

408

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/4

Avg LA on HRs

31.8°

Brl / PA %

6.90

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Dustin May · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.336
Whiff%
22.6
HH%
55.3
BRL%
17.0
Pull%
49
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.217
Whiff%
32.7
HH%
54.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.214
Whiff%
16.1
HH%
20.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
30
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 13 PA this season.

Career vs Dustin May (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.333

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Dustin May (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	25.6	8.3	58.7	35	.306	18.8
FCCutter	22.3	3.5	35.7	72	.292	13.5
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.1	7.3	37.1	56	.284	25.7
SISinker	17.3	5.7	56.3	53	.317	18.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.8	64.9	41	.368	15.3	55
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	36.4	18	.152	23.3	22

FCCutter22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	2.0	38.8	76	.293	12.1	57
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.294	20.0	9

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	61	.235	28.9	49
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.7	47.8	52	.326	14.6	31

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	60.0	40	.352	20.0	13
vs RHB	4.7	58.1	56	.310	15.6	54

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .487). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (STL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Busch Stadium (336/400/335 ft) · elev 466ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 36 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP207PA	.124	.312	.575	10.0%	5
vs LHP70PA	.185	.431	.731	8.2%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home149PA	.119	.343	.640	7.0%	2
🐾Away128PA	.163	.342	.586	13.1%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day112PA	.164	.388	.697	8.6%	4
🐾Night165PA	.124	.314	.562	10.2%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty97PA	.053	.204	.390	1
Runners On111PA	.215	.480	.819	4
RISP66PA	.148	.426	.817	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs99PA	.188	.388	.687	4
1 Out95PA	.079	.318	.613	0
2 Outs83PA	.154	.321	.538	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.