Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.5%

+641

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

11.4%

+775

RBI 1+

34.8%

+188

Hits 1+

61.9%

-163

Hits 2+

19.8%

+405

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.0%

95% CI · 7.6–8.3%

+1158

Fair odds

1st AB

1.9%

Through AB2

3.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
vs SP-12%
Contact-5%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast+6%

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0210 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 5 games

Now

+640

High

+1125

Low

+745

Med

+820

Avg

+902

+640

Low +745High +1125

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.4

Proj PA

187

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.131

wOBA

.303

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.2

Hard%

30.1

FB%

34.2

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

20.3

GB%

50.0

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

16.7

FB%

25.0

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

23.3

GB%

57.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.7

Hard%

34.4

FB%

37.0

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

19.4

GB%

47.8

Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

32.8

FB%

35.6

Pull%

41.0

Soft%

21.3

GB%

47.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

27.4

FB%

32.8

Pull%

35.5

Soft%

19.4

GB%

52.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
Connor Prielipp stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.286↑ vs season .24014 PA · 15d

OPS

.715

ISO

.143

RBI

K-BB

5-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIN	2	0	1	—
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	3	.500
06-10	@ NYM	4	0	1	—
06-09	@ NYM	4	3	0	1.000
05-20	vs PIT	4	1	2	.250
05-19	vs PIT	4	1	1	.250
05-17	vs KC	4	0	1	—
05-16	vs KC	3	2	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlidervL12PA	—	.326	11.1	22.2	67	20.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL11PA	.111	.248	0.0	33.3	33	18.2
🐾CUCurveball10PA	.111	.314	0.0	33.3	73	12.5
🐾CHChangeup38PA	.105	.233	6.5	31.0	55	27.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.326	11.1	22.2	67	20.0	66	12
vs RHP	.210	.168	7.1	21.4	71	28.1	98	20

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.111	.248	0.0	33.3	33	18.2	66	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.051	.325	11.1	37.0	33	18.0	98	44

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.111	.396	0.0	44.4	67	7.1	98	9

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.100	.233	6.5	29.0	55	26.1	98	40

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

107

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Church.

Season Statcast

ISO

.146

Barrel %

8.9

Hard Hit %

32.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.287

xBA

.240

Brl / PA %

6.50

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Avg EV on HRs

104.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

387

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

25.4°

Brl / PA %

6.50

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Connor Prielipp · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.326
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
22.2
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
67
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.248
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
33
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 11 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.314
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
73

Connor Prielipp (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	31.7	12.8	43.6	51	.293	19.6
FF4-Seam Fastball	30.6	8.3	30.6	33	.397	10.0
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	20.0	90	.074	23.8
CHChangeup	12.6	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	21.1	47.4	42	.314	17.9	28
vs RHB	5.0	40.0	60	.278	20.6	38

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	33	.494	20.0	11
vs RHB	3.3	23.3	33	.361	6.8	41

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	75	.127	5.3	5
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	16.7	100	.061	31.8	21

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .559). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

CHChangeup1

SISinker1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP132PA	.177	.419	.699	9.6%	5
🐾vs LHP38PA	.028	.306	.595	3.2%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home77PA	.180	.472	.784	10.8%	3
🐾Away93PA	.114	.330	.588	5.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day71PA	.215	.523	.875	10.8%	3
Night99PA	.094	.305	.537	5.7%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty60PA	.141	.404	.704	2
Runners On73PA	.206	.515	.844	3
RISP30PA	.107	.321	.521	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs60PA	.123	.386	.669	1
1 Out47PA	.262	.476	.753	3
2 Outs63PA	.082	.344	.630	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.115	.538	1.003	0
1-015PA	.071	.214	.348	0
0-113PA	—	.154	.308	0
2-01PA	1.000	2.000	3.000	0
0-226PA	—	.038	.077	0
3-03PA	—	—	.667	0
1-236PA	.115	.286	.452	1
2-225PA	.120	.360	.600	0
3-214PA	—	.300	.800	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.