Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.1%

+801

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 79

Batting #9Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.1%

+889

RBI 1+

33.6%

+198

Hits 1+

62.5%

-166

Hits 2+

20.3%

+393

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.7%

95% CI · 5.5–6.0%

+1651

Fair odds

1st AB

1.6%

Through AB2

3.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Contact-8%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+6%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0183 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+940

High

+1500

Low

+665

Med

+800

Avg

+832

+940

Low +665High +1500

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.8

Proj PA

148

HR / PA

.026

ISO

.136

wOBA

.299

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.3

Hard%

31.4

FB%

35.9

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

21.1

GB%

49.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

24.4

FB%

34.9

Pull%

31.1

Soft%

24.4

GB%

53.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

33.6

FB%

36.2

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

20.0

GB%

47.8

Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

30.5

FB%

35.9

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

20.0

GB%

51.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

32.2

FB%

36.0

Pull%

34.4

Soft%

22.2

GB%

47.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Hot streak: .780 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (6.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.321↑ vs season .24331 PA · 15d

OPS

.780

ISO

.072

RBI

K-BB

9-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SD	2	1	0	0	0	.500
06-16	vs SD	3	1	1	1	0	.333
06-15	vs SD	2	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	@ MIN	3	2	0	1	1	.667
06-13	@ MIN	4	1	0	0	2	.250
06-12	@ MIN	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	3	.500
06-10	@ NYM	4	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball53PA	.043	.317	8.6	38.7	34	22.4
🐾CHChangeup41PA	.097	.244	6.1	32.3	55	26.7
🐾FCCutter11PA	.888	.510	10.0	66.7	90	18.5
🐾CUCurveball10PA	.111	.314	0.0	33.3	73	12.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.111	.248	0.0	33.3	33	17.4	59	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.046	.330	10.3	34.5	35	19.3	103	49

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.093	.244	6.1	30.3	55	26.0	103	43

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.888	.514	11.1	55.6	89	14.8	103	11

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.111	.396	0.0	44.4	67	7.1	103	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Church.

Season Statcast

ISO

.132

Barrel %

9.0

Hard Hit %

31.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.292

xBA

.243

Brl / PA %

6.40

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Avg EV on HRs

104.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

387

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

25.4°

Brl / PA %

6.40

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.317
Whiff%
22.4
HH%
38.7
BRL%
8.6
Pull%
34
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
.244
Whiff%
26.7
HH%
32.3
BRL%
6.1
Pull%
55
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 41 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.510
Whiff%
18.5
HH%
66.7
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
90
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Noah Cameron

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

1.500

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .559). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

CHChangeup1

SISinker1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP144PA	.165	.421	.727	9.1%	5
vs LHP43PA	.025	.293	.572	5.6%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home86PA	.165	.456	.782	11.3%	3
🐾Away101PA	.105	.337	.614	5.3%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day81PA	.190	.514	.884	9.9%	3
🐾Night106PA	.090	.300	.545	6.7%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty64PA	.133	.400	.713	2
Runners On79PA	.189	.527	.881	3
RISP33PA	.097	.355	.597	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs69PA	.109	.359	.649	1
1 Out51PA	.240	.457	.732	3
2 Outs67PA	.078	.375	.703	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.