Home Run
15.1%
+560
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs Sean Sullivan (LHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 95
Batting #2Confirmed lineup
2+ RBI
12.3%
+711
RBI 1+
35.6%
+181
Hits 1+
64.5%
-182
Hits 2+
22.3%
+348
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter41.1%
95% CI · 40.5–41.6%
+143
Fair odds
1st AB
13.0%
Through AB2
24.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park-5%
- Temp+5%
- vs SP+34%
- Lineup+3%
- Contact+24%
- Statcast+25%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sean Sullivan (LHP)
- ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
- ·91F game
- ·Big bats hitting behind
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0564 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+34% (×1.34) · blended_proj
Park-5% (×0.95)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup+3% (×1.03)
Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 15 games · 3 HR
Now
+560
High
+865
Low
+250
Med
+385
Avg
+429
🐾🐾🐾+560
Low +250🐾 HR money zoneHigh +865
WARMspot score 92
Just below his HR money zone (+360 to +435). Close, not prime.
Recent — tap a game
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
23.8
Proj PA
386
HR / PA
.062
ISO
.280
wOBA
.401
wRC+
154
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
26.3
Hard%
47.0
FB%
38.0
Pull%
34.4
Soft%
13.2
GB%
39.3
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
23.8
Hard%
38.8
FB%
42.9
Pull%
28.6
Soft%
18.4
GB%
36.7
vs RHP
HR/FB
27.8
Hard%
51.0
FB%
35.6
Pull%
37.3
Soft%
10.8
GB%
40.6
🐾Home
HR/FB
28.1
Hard%
51.5
FB%
48.5
Pull%
30.3
Soft%
15.2
GB%
39.4
Away
HR/FB
24.0
Hard%
43.5
FB%
29.8
Pull%
37.6
Soft%
11.8
GB%
39.3
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- 18.5% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
- 58.3% hard-hit — punisher
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (46% of career HRs)
- Hot streak: 1.321 OPS over last 15 days
- 92°F — ball flies in warm air
- Elite barrel% (18.5)
- High barrels/PA (9.2%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.333↑ vs season .25560 PA · 15d
OPS
1.321
ISO
.521
HR
8
RBI
13
K-BB
15-12
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | vs COL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 06-10 | vs MIL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
| 06-09 | vs MIL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.333 |
| 💣 — · Sweeper | ||||||||
| 06-08 | vs MIL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.500 |
| 💣 447ft · 110.3 EV · 4-Seamer💣 374ft · 97.4 EV · Sinker | ||||||||
| 06-07 | @ HOU | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .800 |
| 💣 389ft · 113.9 EV · 4-Seamer | ||||||||
| 06-06 | @ HOU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 06-05 | @ HOU | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 06-04 | @ CHC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC16PA | .300 | .579 | 33.3 | 60.0 | 50 | 37.5 |
| CU11PA | .556 | .502 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 80 | 33.3 |
| FFvL28PA | .455 | .430 | 27.3 | 72.7 | 55 | 39.1 |
| STvL11PA | .300 | .164 | 0.0 | 28.6 | 29 | 37.5 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .300 | .612 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 50 | 37.8 | 179 | 16 |
CUCurveball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | — | .014 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 75 | 38.9 | 179 | 6 |
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHPTONIGHT | .455 | .430 | 27.3 | 72.7 | 55 | 39.1 | 138 | 28 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .360 | .530 | 35.5 | 74.2 | 58 | 28.6 | 179 | 65 |
STSweeper
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHPTONIGHT | .300 | .164 | 0.0 | 28.6 | 29 | 37.5 | 138 | 11 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .364 | .611 | 33.3 | 77.8 | 44 | 27.3 | 179 | 13 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
95
vs RHB
114
vs SHB
104
Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Kurtz.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed5 of 24 HRs · 21%
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 11 of 24 career HRs (46%).
2
1
·
5
2
🐾
11
3
🐾
3
4
·
5
·
3
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.
Season Statcast
ISO
.246
Barrel %
18.5
Hard Hit %
58.3
Pull % (HRs)
50
xwOBA
.397
xBA
.255
Brl / PA %
9.20
Max EV (mph)
115.9
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
115.9
Avg EV on HRs
109.3
Avg HR Distance (ft)
411
HRs in sample
8
No-doubters (110+ mph)
4/8
Crushed (105+ mph)
7/8
Avg LA on HRs
25.8°
Brl / PA %
9.20
Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Career vs Sean Sullivan (LHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)
OPS
1.000
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-0
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .550). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft
8 HRs this season
vs RHP 7vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4
SLSlider2
CS1
FCCutter1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP208PA | .261 | .554 | 1.020 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 🐾vs LHP98PA | .217 | .482 | .860 | 9.6% | 5 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home141PA | .308 | .607 | 1.075 | 23.6% | 9 |
| Away165PA | .195 | .466 | .878 | 14.8% | 6 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day111PA | .260 | .593 | 1.107 | 23.6% | 5 |
| 🐾Night195PA | .239 | .497 | .892 | 16.2% | 10 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty100PA | .238 | .488 | .888 | 6 |
| Runners On121PA | .307 | .659 | 1.171 | 6 |
| RISP62PA | .372 | .837 | 1.466 | 3 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs109PA | .221 | .477 | .890 | 5 |
| 1 Out101PA | .293 | .561 | .967 | 6 |
| 2 Outs96PA | .223 | .556 | 1.056 | 4 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-026PA | .538 | 1.038 | 1.538 | 4 |
| 1-016PA | .438 | 1.000 | 1.562 | 1 |
| 0-123PA | .305 | .696 | 1.087 | 1 |
| 2-04PA | — | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| 0-218PA | .176 | .294 | .461 | 1 |
| 3-010PA | — | — | 1.000 | 0 |
| 1-241PA | .025 | .171 | .317 | 0 |
| 2-252PA | .352 | .627 | .916 | 5 |
| 3-268PA | — | .091 | .503 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Fri.