Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.4%

+592

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.9%

+737

RBI 1+

35.2%

+184

Hits 1+

65.0%

-186

Hits 2+

22.9%

+337

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

31.2%

95% CI · 30.7–31.7%

+221

Fair odds

1st AB

6.7%

Through AB2

12.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
vs SP-35%
Lineup+3%
Contact+22%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast+25%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0575 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+22% (×1.22)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+440

High

+825

Low

+185

Med

+410

Avg

+468

🐾+440

Low +185🐾 HR money zoneHigh +825

BELOW ZONEspot score 65

Longer price than he's homered at (+210 to +210). Model sees less pop tonight.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+2102026-07-03vs MIAbook line

HomeBat 1stoff RHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.6

Proj PA

230

HR / PA

.068

ISO

.297

wOBA

.401

wRC+

156

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

27.4

Hard%

48.0

FB%

36.0

Pull%

32.4

Soft%

13.7

GB%

40.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

40.3

FB%

36.1

Pull%

29.2

Soft%

19.4

GB%

40.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

29.8

Hard%

52.3

FB%

35.9

Pull%

34.1

Soft%

10.6

GB%

41.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

32.6

Hard%

52.5

FB%

42.6

Pull%

28.7

Soft%

13.9

GB%

40.6

Away

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

43.7

FB%

29.4

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

13.6

GB%

41.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Elite power: .261 ISO
17.9% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
57.7% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (CU, FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (46% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.156 OPS over last 15 days
Already has 1 HR / 2 RBI off this SP in 14 PA
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Elite barrel% (17.9)
High barrels/PA (9.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.302↑ vs season .25866 PA · 15d

OPS

1.156

ISO

.415

RBI

K-BB

18-13

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs PIT	4	1	0	0	0	3	.250
06-16	vs PIT	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250
06-15	vs PIT	4	3	2	5	1	0	2.250
💣 380ft · 106.0 EV · 4-Seamer💣 407ft · 112.0 EV · Slider
06-14	vs COL	3	1	0	2	1	0	.667
06-13	vs COL	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-12	vs COL	5	2	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 471ft · 108.9 EV · Splitter
06-10	vs MIL	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-09	vs MIL	3	1	1	1	2	1	1.333
💣 402ft · 98.3 EV · Sweeper

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker64PA	.076	.325	2.4	54.1	59	22.4
🐾CUCurveball14PA	.417	.394	0.0	75.0	80	41.4
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball99PA	.415	.492	29.2	70.8	56	33.5
🐾FSSplit-Finger22PA	.200	.299	25.0	66.7	88	55.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.033	.316	0.0	50.0	64	19.7	132	33
vs RHP	.107	.334	5.3	63.2	53	18.0	189	36

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.011	0.0	75.0	75	40.0	189	7

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.435	.419	25.0	66.7	58	33.3	132	29
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.400	.522	30.6	72.2	56	27.6	189	72

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.222	.324	25.0	75.0	88	56.7	189	20

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Kurtz.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected2 of 24 HRs · 8%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 11 of 24 career HRs (46%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.261

Barrel %

17.9

Hard Hit %

57.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.395

xBA

.258

Brl / PA %

9.00

Max EV (mph)

115.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

115.9

Avg EV on HRs

109.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

411

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

4/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/8

Avg LA on HRs

25.8°

Brl / PA %

9.00

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.325
Whiff%
22.4
HH%
54.1
BRL%
2.4
Pull%
59
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
.394
Whiff%
41.4
HH%
75.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
80
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.492
Whiff%
33.5
HH%
70.8
BRL%
29.2
Pull%
56
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.250AVG · limited (14 PA)

OPS

.940

RBI

K-BB

5-2

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .550). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

SLSlider2

CS1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.0 games · 9 PA (4 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP227PA	.297	.599	1.070	22.5%	13
vs LHP107PA	.195	.467	.841	8.8%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home169PA	.328	.641	1.108	21.3%	12
Away165PA	.195	.466	.878	14.8%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day115PA	.262	.595	1.108	22.4%	5
🐾Night219PA	.261	.533	.935	16.0%	13

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty108PA	.253	.517	.924	7
Runners On135PA	.339	.689	1.193	8
RISP70PA	.380	.800	1.386	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs117PA	.206	.467	.886	5
1 Out114PA	.297	.574	.978	7
2 Outs103PA	.282	.628	1.133	6

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.