Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

20.2%

+396

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

15.1%

+563

RBI 1+

38.1%

+163

Hits 1+

69.2%

-224

Hits 2+

27.5%

+264

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.3%

95% CI · 17.8–18.7%

+447

Fair odds

1st AB

5.3%

Through AB2

10.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Lineup+3%
Contact+2%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast+8%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0261 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+450

High

+2605

Low

+535

Med

+928

Avg

+928

+450

Low +535High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.2

Proj PA

213

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.155

wOBA

.322

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.1

Hard%

36.7

FB%

33.7

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

14.1

GB%

42.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

30.5

FB%

28.8

Pull%

33.9

Soft%

20.3

GB%

44.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

38.4

FB%

35.1

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

12.3

GB%

42.2

Home

HR/FB

6.0

Hard%

33.8

FB%

36.8

Pull%

35.3

Soft%

14.7

GB%

40.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

19.5

Hard%

39.6

FB%

30.6

Pull%

34.3

Soft%

13.4

GB%

44.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)
High barrels/PA (6.4%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.236↓ vs season .28458 PA · 15d

OPS

.640

ISO

.128

RBI

K-BB

13-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ CIN	5	1	0	0	.600
06-16	@ CIN	5	0	0	1	—
06-15	@ CIN	5	1	0	1	.200
06-14	vs ATL	4	2	1	1	.500
06-13	vs ATL	3	0	1	1	—
06-12	vs ATL	3	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs STL	4	1	0	2	.250
06-10	vs STL	4	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR11PA	.091	.234	11.1	33.3	33	26.1
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR90PA	.099	.337	5.0	41.7	42	18.2
🐾SISinkervR27PA	.044	.264	6.2	56.2	50	12.9
🐾CHChangeupvR27PA	.154	.315	9.5	47.6	43	26.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.295	0.0	50.0	0	33.3	148	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.091	.234	11.1	33.3	33	26.1	85	11

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.556	22.2	44.4	44	18.9	148	15
vs RHPTONIGHT	.099	.337	5.0	41.7	42	18.2	85	90

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.372	0.0	25.0	42	15.8	148	15
vs RHPTONIGHT	.044	.264	6.2	56.2	50	12.9	85	27

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.154	.315	9.5	47.6	43	26.0	85	27

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Benge.

Season Statcast

ISO

.131

Barrel %

9.0

Hard Hit %

43.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.347

xBA

.284

Brl / PA %

6.40

Max EV (mph)

109.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.7

Avg EV on HRs

105.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

403

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.7°

Brl / PA %

6.40

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
34
xwOBA
.234
Whiff%
26.1
HH%
33.3
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
33
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 11 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.337
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
41.7
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
42
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.264
Whiff%
12.9
HH%
56.2
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .432). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

STSweeper1

FSSplitter1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP228PA	.127	.363	.652	7.6%	5
vs LHP55PA	.145	.458	.858	13.9%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home138PA	.103	.373	.706	6.0%	3
🐾Away145PA	.157	.388	.678	11.3%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day136PA	.158	.408	.746	8.8%	4
Night147PA	.107	.357	.643	8.7%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty94PA	.147	.427	.799	2
Runners On98PA	.109	.337	.613	1
RISP66PA	.111	.349	.622	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs110PA	.136	.388	.688	4
1 Out94PA	.113	.352	.639	1
2 Outs79PA	.145	.406	.760	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.