Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.3%

+716

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 99

2+ RBI

10.7%

+831

RBI 1+

34.1%

+193

Hits 1+

69.2%

-224

Hits 2+

27.5%

+264

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.1%

95% CI · 10.7–11.4%

+802

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-1%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact-2%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+10%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)

·90F game
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0262 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park-1% (×0.99)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+10% (×1.10)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 2 HR

Now

+715

High

+1045

Low

+450

Med

+700

Avg

+706

🐾🐾+715

Low +450🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1045

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.0

Proj PA

281

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.155

wOBA

.323

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.7

Hard%

38.0

FB%

33.5

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

13.4

GB%

41.9

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

37.9

FB%

34.5

Pull%

31.0

Soft%

13.8

GB%

37.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

38.0

FB%

33.3

Pull%

32.0

Soft%

13.3

GB%

42.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

37.8

FB%

36.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

12.2

GB%

41.1

Away

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

38.2

FB%

30.3

Pull%

30.3

Soft%

14.6

GB%

42.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Hot streak: .935 OPS over last 15 days
90°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (6.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.288→ vs season .28456 PA · 15d

OPS

.935

ISO

.308

RBI

K-BB

16-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ATL	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs STL	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-10	vs STL	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs STL	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-07	@ SD	5	5	1	2	0	0	2.000
💣 389ft · 106.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-06	@ SD	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-05	@ SD	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ SEA	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup24PA	.087	.305	5.0	47.4	45	27.7
🐾SISinkervL7PA	—	.421	0.0	—	33	4.5
🐾FCCutter23PA	.272	.520	18.2	50.0	50	3.2
🐾CUCurveballvL7PA	—	.295	0.0	50.0	0	40.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.083	.306	5.0	45.0	45	25.5	88	25

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.421	0.0	0.0	33	4.5	176	7
vs RHP	.050	.270	7.7	53.8	46	15.4	88	23

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.316	.519	15.8	52.6	53	3.6	88	20

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.295	0.0	50.0	0	40.0	176	7
vs RHP	.100	.258	12.5	37.5	38	25.0	88	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Benge.

Season Statcast

ISO

.136

Barrel %

9.5

Hard Hit %

44.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.349

xBA

.284

Brl / PA %

6.70

Max EV (mph)

109.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.7

Avg EV on HRs

105.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

403

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.7°

Brl / PA %

6.70

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.305
Whiff%
27.7
HH%
47.4
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
45
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.421
Whiff%
4.5
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
33
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.520
Whiff%
3.2
HH%
50.0
BRL%
18.2
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.8	8.3	23.6	83	.270	18.3
SISinker	29.5	8.9	49.0	75	.403	11.6
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.5	7.7	45.7	49	.302	30.0
CUCurveball	9.7	0.0	50.0	80	.325	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	28.6	86	.161	21.3	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.5	22.6	83	.302	15.3	70

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	36.7	77	.437	6.5	36
vs RHB	7.7	57.7	73	.370	14.0	39

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	25	.128	21.4	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	51.4	51	.329	33.3	51

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	40.0	80	.412	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .432). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

STSweeper1

FSSplitter1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP213PA	.127	.364	.655	7.7%	5
🐾vs LHP46PA	.175	.525	.960	16.7%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home129PA	.109	.378	.704	6.5%	3
Away130PA	.159	.403	.711	11.8%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day122PA	.157	.407	.743	8.6%	4
Night137PA	.115	.377	.676	9.5%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty88PA	.130	.403	.767	2
Runners On91PA	.118	.365	.662	1
RISP60PA	.123	.386	.686	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs98PA	.152	.413	.719	4
1 Out88PA	.097	.329	.613	1
2 Outs73PA	.157	.438	.808	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-027PA	.186	.593	1.000	1
1-017PA	.764	1.235	1.706	4
0-117PA	.411	.882	1.353	1
2-07PA	—	.143	.286	0
0-222PA	—	.091	.182	0
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-241PA	.049	.244	.439	0
2-236PA	.029	.286	.563	0
3-249PA	.026	.184	.531	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.