Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

8.1%

+1137

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sandy Alcantara (RHP) (1.11 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #8Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1084

RBI 1+

32.0%

+212

Hits 1+

61.2%

-158

Hits 2+

19.1%

+423

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.8%

95% CI · 3.6–4.0%

+2529

Fair odds

1st AB

0.9%

Through AB2

1.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
vs SP-12%
Contact-25%
SP Contact+2%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sandy Alcantara (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0122 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-25% (×0.75)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+1140

High

+1545

Low

+625

Med

+1145

Avg

+1143

+1140

Low +625High +1545

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.8

Proj PA

306

HR / PA

.009

ISO

.090

wOBA

.300

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.7

Hard%

28.4

FB%

28.5

Pull%

29.7

Soft%

22.6

GB%

58.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

13.0

FB%

5.0

Pull%

30.4

Soft%

34.8

GB%

70.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

31.1

FB%

32.1

Pull%

29.5

Soft%

20.5

GB%

56.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

22.2

FB%

29.5

Pull%

25.9

Soft%

27.2

GB%

55.1

Away

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

35.1

FB%

27.4

Pull%

33.8

Soft%

17.6

GB%

61.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Park boost (131)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.281↑ vs season .23633 PA · 15d

OPS

.616

ISO

.032

RBI

K-BB

9-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-15	vs MIA	4	3	1	0	.750
06-14	@ MIL	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-13	@ MIL	1	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	3	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	1	0	1	.250
06-09	@ TOR	2	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ TOR	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-07	vs CHW	4	1	1	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR27PA	.125	.273	0.0	50.0	28	9.1
🐾CHChangeupvR28PA	.037	.283	0.0	28.6	67	23.4
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR59PA	.111	.264	5.1	33.3	21	16.5
🐾FCCuttervR17PA	.062	.252	0.0	33.3	67	21.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.336	0.0	57.1	43	4.8	33	11
vs RHPTONIGHT	.125	.273	0.0	50.0	28	9.1	85	27

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.333	.118	0.0	25.0	75	28.6	33	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.037	.283	0.0	28.6	67	23.4	85	28

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.189	0.0	42.9	43	26.3	33	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.111	.264	5.1	33.3	21	16.5	85	59

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.062	.252	0.0	33.3	67	21.2	85	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Crawford.

Season Statcast

ISO

.096

Barrel %

1.3

Hard Hit %

33.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.267

xBA

.236

Brl / PA %

0.90

Max EV (mph)

106.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.4

Avg EV on HRs

100.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

382

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

0.90

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sandy Alcantara · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.273
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
28
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
23
xwOBA
.283
Whiff%
23.4
HH%
28.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.264
Whiff%
16.5
HH%
33.3
BRL%
5.1
Pull%
21
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 59 PA this season.

Sandy Alcantara (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	23.9	6.1	41.1	54	.320	16.1
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.5	4.6	34.5	71	.312	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	19.7	10.6	47.5	42	.349	19.0
FCCutter	13.0	3.4	25.0	55	.292	14.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.6	46.2	46	.323	15.6	68
vs RHB	2.1	31.9	62	.317	15.0	57

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.5	27.3	64	.331	17.6	81
vs RHB	4.8	57.1	95	.269	31.2	34

FF4-Seam Fastball20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.0	52.2	46	.401	15.6	61
vs RHB	5.0	50.0	35	.234	28.6	29

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.1	28.6	50	.352	10.7	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	60	.240	33.3	22

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .419). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP182PA	.112	.365	.667	1.4%	2
vs LHP33PA	—	.172	.445	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home113PA	.116	.404	.749	1.2%	1
Away102PA	.074	.263	.508	1.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day84PA	.064	.308	.606	1.3%	0
Night131PA	.115	.355	.653	1.1%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty75PA	.131	.435	.795	1
Runners On86PA	.103	.321	.612	1
RISP55PA	.084	.292	.601	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs70PA	.060	.299	.570	0
1 Out68PA	.098	.328	.637	1
2 Outs77PA	.126	.380	.692	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Wed.