Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.4%

+960

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #9Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.2%

+988

RBI 1+

32.7%

+206

Hits 1+

60.9%

-156

Hits 2+

18.8%

+432

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.0%

95% CI · 3.8–4.3%

+2379

Fair odds

1st AB

1.1%

Through AB2

2.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact-25%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-17%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0113 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-25% (×0.75)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+960

High

+1750

Low

+725

Med

+995

Avg

+1062

+960

Low +725High +1750

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.3

Proj PA

225

HR / PA

.006

ISO

.077

wOBA

.291

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.5

Hard%

27.3

FB%

28.2

Pull%

27.8

Soft%

22.5

GB%

54.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

9.4

FB%

10.3

Pull%

28.1

Soft%

34.4

GB%

65.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

30.5

FB%

31.2

Pull%

27.7

Soft%

20.3

GB%

52.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.2

Hard%

21.9

FB%

30.7

Pull%

24.8

Soft%

26.7

GB%

51.5

Away

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

32.7

FB%

25.7

Pull%

30.8

Soft%

18.3

GB%

57.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.257↑ vs season .23436 PA · 15d

OPS

.564

ISO

.029

RBI

K-BB

11-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-17	vs MIA	4	1	0	1	.250
06-16	vs MIA	3	0	0	1	—
06-15	vs MIA	4	3	1	0	.750
06-14	@ MIL	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-13	@ MIL	1	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	3	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	1	0	1	.250
06-09	@ TOR	2	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball62PA	.104	.250	4.3	38.1	24	21.1
🐾STSweeper17PA	.375	.296	0.0	25.0	83	24.1
🐾SISinker36PA	.100	.288	0.0	47.8	32	16.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.168	0.0	42.9	43	30.0	25	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.111	.264	5.1	33.3	21	16.2	82	59

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.461	.319	0.0	27.3	91	13.0	82	14

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.336	0.0	57.1	43	4.3	25	11
vs RHP	.125	.273	0.0	50.0	28	8.2	82	27

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Crawford.

Season Statcast

ISO

.092

Barrel %

1.3

Hard Hit %

33.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.264

xBA

.234

Brl / PA %

0.90

Max EV (mph)

106.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.4

Avg EV on HRs

100.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

382

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

0.90

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.250
Whiff%
21.1
HH%
38.1
BRL%
4.3
Pull%
24
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 62 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
.296
Whiff%
24.1
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
83
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.288
Whiff%
16.9
HH%
47.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
32

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .419). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP187PA	.109	.360	.659	1.4%	2
vs LHP35PA	—	.161	.418	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home120PA	.108	.387	.720	1.1%	1
Away102PA	.074	.263	.508	1.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day88PA	.061	.305	.600	1.3%	0
Night134PA	.113	.347	.638	1.1%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty77PA	.127	.423	.774	1
Runners On87PA	.101	.316	.603	1
RISP55PA	.084	.292	.601	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs74PA	.057	.296	.566	0
1 Out70PA	.095	.317	.617	1
2 Outs78PA	.125	.375	.683	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.