Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.5%

+850

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.8%

+921

RBI 1+

33.3%

+201

Hits 1+

67.6%

-209

Hits 2+

25.7%

+290

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.9%

95% CI · 6.6–7.2%

+1349

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
Lineup+3%
Contact-7%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast-7%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0204 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+695

High

+4000

Low

+580

Med

+750

Avg

+966

+695

Low +580High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.8

Proj PA

233

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.140

wOBA

.305

wRC+

100

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

31.9

FB%

39.9

Pull%

47.9

Soft%

20.9

GB%

37.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.7

Hard%

30.5

FB%

37.8

Pull%

57.3

Soft%

26.8

GB%

42.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.9

Hard%

32.5

FB%

40.7

Pull%

44.0

Soft%

18.5

GB%

35.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

10.4

Hard%

27.8

FB%

38.4

Pull%

46.8

Soft%

19.0

GB%

38.4

Away

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

35.3

FB%

41.0

Pull%

48.7

Soft%

22.4

GB%

36.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
High barrels/PA (4.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.281↑ vs season .27458 PA · 15d

OPS

.679

ISO

.105

RBI

K-BB

5-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs BAL	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 375ft · 101.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-16	vs BAL	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	@ WSH	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-13	@ WSH	5	2	0	0	0	1	.400
06-12	@ WSH	5	2	0	0	0	0	.400
06-11	@ BAL	5	3	1	1	0	1	1.200
💣 364ft · 105.3 EV · Curveball
06-10	@ BAL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball105PA	.140	.313	8.0	42.5	52	18.2
🐾CUCurveball14PA	.250	.378	14.3	60.0	100	12.0
🐾FCCutter20PA	.059	.428	0.0	26.7	71	22.7
🐾CHChangeup36PA	—	.231	0.0	16.0	82	32.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.200	.214	7.7	46.2	31	20.0	73	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.147	.331	8.1	44.6	55	15.1	109	100

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.375	.398	16.7	66.7	100	13.3	109	10

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.142	.490	0.0	16.7	83	21.4	73	8
vs RHP	.076	.402	0.0	27.3	64	16.2	109	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.243	0.0	15.4	81	26.7	109	36

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Young.

Season Statcast

ISO

.110

Barrel %

5.4

Hard Hit %

38.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.328

xBA

.274

Brl / PA %

4.00

Max EV (mph)

111.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Avg EV on HRs

105.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

4.00

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.313
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
42.5
BRL%
8.0
Pull%
52
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.378
Whiff%
12.0
HH%
60.0
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
100
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.428
Whiff%
22.7
HH%
26.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Shane Baz

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

.500

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .443). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SL🐾Slider2

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP214PA	.110	.377	.715	7.2%	4
vs LHP89PA	.109	.341	.611	4.3%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home146PA	.115	.369	.693	2.7%	3
Away157PA	.105	.364	.676	9.5%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day116PA	.145	.462	.845	7.8%	3
Night187PA	.089	.308	.586	5.5%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty112PA	.076	.368	.698	1
Runners On129PA	.109	.364	.700	2
RISP76PA	.180	.459	.832	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs97PA	.177	.365	.615	4
1 Out109PA	.042	.320	.678	0
2 Outs97PA	.121	.418	.758	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.