Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

10.0%

+896

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Cade Cavalli (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

9.5%

+950

RBI 1+

33.0%

+203

Hits 1+

67.8%

-210

Hits 2+

25.8%

+287

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.5%

95% CI · 6.2–6.8%

+1437

Fair odds

1st AB

1.4%

Through AB2

2.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP-24%
Contact-6%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast-7%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cade Cavalli (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0195 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-24% (×0.76) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+895

High

+895

Low

+550

Med

+762

Avg

+730

+895

Low +550High +895

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.8

Proj PA

322

HR / PA

.021

ISO

.127

wOBA

.302

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.2

Hard%

30.3

FB%

40.5

Pull%

49.3

Soft%

22.9

GB%

37.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

31.7

FB%

36.5

Pull%

57.1

Soft%

27.0

GB%

42.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

5.2

Hard%

29.7

FB%

42.3

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

21.0

GB%

34.3

Home

HR/FB

6.1

Hard%

29.5

FB%

35.1

Pull%

48.4

Soft%

20.0

GB%

39.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

31.1

FB%

45.3

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

25.5

GB%

34.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.310↑ vs season .27562 PA · 15d

OPS

.742

ISO

.104

RBI

K-BB

5-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ WSH	5	2	0	0	0	0	.400
06-11	@ BAL	5	3	1	1	0	1	1.200
💣 364ft · 105.3 EV · Curveball
06-10	@ BAL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ BAL	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-07	@ DET	5	2	0	1	0	1	.400
06-06	@ DET	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-05	@ DET	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR87PA	.133	.330	8.2	44.3	57	16.4
🐾CUCurveballvR10PA	.375	.398	16.7	66.7	100	14.3
🐾SISinkervR26PA	.042	.485	9.5	52.4	57	15.7
🐾STSweepervR8PA	.428	.153	33.3	66.7	100	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.214	.229	8.3	50.0	33	20.5	67	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.133	.330	8.2	44.3	57	16.4	115	87

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.375	.398	16.7	66.7	100	14.3	115	10

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.069	.366	0.0	34.5	72	6.4	67	30
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.042	.485	9.5	52.4	57	15.7	115	26

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.185	0.0	0.0	100	42.9	67	11
vs RHPTONIGHT	.428	.153	33.3	66.7	100	35.7	115	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Young.

Season Statcast

ISO

.108

Barrel %

5.5

Hard Hit %

37.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.332

xBA

.275

Brl / PA %

3.90

Max EV (mph)

111.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Avg EV on HRs

105.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

3.90

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Cade Cavalli · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.330
Whiff%
16.4
HH%
44.3
BRL%
8.2
Pull%
57
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.398
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
66.7
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
100
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.485
Whiff%
15.7
HH%
52.4
BRL%
9.5
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Cade Cavalli (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	34.6	14.3	41.3	48	.375	18.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	29.5	—	31.9	—	.268	28.4
SISinker	15.2	4.9	52.6	76	.345	26.9
STSweeper	11.6	4.3	35.0	52	.320	15.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	33.3	53	.357	16.4	78
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	54.2	33	.410	20.7	43

SISinker15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	70	.501	25.0	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	6.5	51.6	77	.285	25.0	41

STSweeper12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	—	—	—	.271	25.0	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	52	.337	10.0	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .443). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SL🐾Slider2

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP200PA	.102	.379	.731	7.3%	3
vs LHP86PA	.114	.329	.585	4.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home138PA	.099	.361	.697	2.0%	2
🐾Away148PA	.112	.366	.677	10.5%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day107PA	.158	.474	.861	8.4%	3
Night179PA	.074	.298	.583	5.3%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty103PA	.052	.351	.691	0
Runners On123PA	.115	.375	.719	2
RISP74PA	.187	.475	.859	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.152	.329	.573	3
1 Out104PA	.044	.337	.712	0
2 Outs91PA	.130	.424	.765	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-033PA	.031	.455	.879	0
1-023PA	.348	.826	1.304	2
0-133PA	.100	.467	.861	0
2-06PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-229PA	.214	.393	.600	2
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-246PA	.068	.182	.312	1
2-236PA	.206	.471	.748	1
3-235PA	.035	.071	.300	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.