Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

5.2%

+1835

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #7Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

6.8%

+1362

RBI 1+

30.6%

+227

Hits 1+

61.6%

-160

Hits 2+

19.5%

+414

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.3%

95% CI · 3.1–3.5%

+2912

Fair odds

1st AB

0.8%

Through AB2

1.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Contact-18%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0172 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-18% (×0.82)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+795

High

+2000

Low

+700

Med

+825

Avg

+876

🐾+795

Low +700🐾 HR money zoneHigh +2000

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7002026-07-03vs LAAbook line

AwayBat 5thoff LHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.1

Proj PA

244

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.143

wOBA

.314

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.0

Hard%

29.3

FB%

34.2

Pull%

46.3

Soft%

21.1

GB%

48.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

30.4

FB%

36.4

Pull%

42.0

Soft%

11.6

GB%

45.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

28.8

FB%

33.3

Pull%

48.0

Soft%

24.9

GB%

49.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

26.1

FB%

38.3

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

23.4

GB%

46.7

Away

HR/FB

14.6

Hard%

31.9

FB%

30.8

Pull%

49.6

Soft%

19.3

GB%

49.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.211↓ vs season .23841 PA · 15d

OPS

.639

ISO

.184

RBI

K-BB

4-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs TOR	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs TEX	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-13	vs TEX	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	vs TEX	3	0	0	1	0	0	—
06-10	@ TB	4	3	2	2	0	0	2.250
💣 388ft · 101.2 EV · Slider💣 415ft · 107.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	@ TB	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-08	@ TB	2	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	@ NYY	3	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball66PA	.161	.318	5.8	36.4	39	8.8
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider34PA	.094	.211	3.2	14.3	61	24.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.048	.343	0.0	44.4	28	3.1	74	26
vs RHP	.182	.306	8.8	35.3	44	9.6	42	49

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.183	0.0	14.3	64	27.7	42	35

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Durbin.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Confirmed0 of 2 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 2 of 2 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.117

Barrel %

2.8

Hard Hit %

29.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.280

xBA

.238

Brl / PA %

2.20

Max EV (mph)

107.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

98.7

Avg EV on HRs

98.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

386

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

32.0°

Brl / PA %

2.20

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.318
Whiff%
8.8
HH%
36.4
BRL%
5.8
Pull%
39
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.211
Whiff%
24.6
HH%
14.3
BRL%
3.2
Pull%
61
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 34 PA this season.

Career vs Trey Yesavage

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .339). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

EP1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 15 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP171PA	.120	.302	.536	2.1%	2
vs LHP55PA	.109	.326	.628	4.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home111PA	.080	.250	.479	1.9%	0
Away115PA	.152	.362	.632	3.3%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day105PA	.171	.362	.629	4.2%	3
Night121PA	.072	.261	.496	1.0%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty66PA	.101	.186	.368	1
Runners On107PA	.139	.394	.708	1
RISP70PA	.158	.456	.838	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs76PA	.139	.333	.560	2
1 Out76PA	.046	.231	.498	0
2 Outs74PA	.162	.353	.610	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.