Home Run
14.6%
+584
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs Sean Sullivan (LHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 114
Batting #9Confirmed lineup
2+ RBI
12.0%
+730
RBI 1+
35.3%
+183
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter12.1%
95% CI · 11.7–12.4%
+729
Fair odds
1st AB
3.3%
Through AB2
6.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+14%
- Temp+5%
- vs SP+34%
- Contact+12%
- Statcast-15%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sean Sullivan (LHP)
- ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
- ·91F game
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0219 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+34% (×1.34) · blended_proj
Park+14% (×1.14)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
5.7
Proj PA
229
HR / PA
.025
ISO
.147
wOBA
.320
wRC+
99
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
7.1
Hard%
40.7
FB%
25.9
Pull%
38.9
Soft%
16.7
GB%
63.0
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
50.0
Hard%
50.0
FB%
16.7
Pull%
50.0
Soft%
8.3
GB%
50.0
vs RHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
38.1
FB%
28.6
Pull%
35.7
Soft%
19.0
GB%
66.7
🐾Home
HR/FB
14.3
Hard%
43.3
FB%
23.3
Pull%
40.0
Soft%
13.3
GB%
63.3
Away
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
37.5
FB%
29.2
Pull%
37.5
Soft%
20.8
GB%
62.5
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
- Hot streak: .850 OPS over last 15 days
- 92°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park boost (114)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.325↑ vs season .25045 PA · 15d
OPS
.850
ISO
.125
HR
1
RBI
3
K-BB
18-1
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | vs COL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
| 06-10 | vs MIL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 |
| 06-09 | vs MIL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 |
| 💣 446ft · 106.9 EV · Changeup | ||||||||
| 06-08 | vs MIL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .167 |
| 06-07 | @ HOU | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-06 | @ HOU | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 06-05 | @ HOU | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 06-04 | @ CHC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .750 |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIvL9PA | — | .189 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 50 | 18.2 |
| SL16PA | .143 | .222 | 0.0 | 36.4 | 64 | 32.3 |
| FFvL8PA | — | .339 | 33.3 | 100.0 | 67 | 43.8 |
| ST11PA | .091 | .193 | 0.0 | 71.4 | 86 | 29.4 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHPTONIGHT | — | .189 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 50 | 18.2 | 177 | 9 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | — | .303 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 33 | 36.4 | 85 | 21 |
SLSlider
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .100 | .245 | 0.0 | 37.5 | 50 | 37.5 | 85 | 12 |
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT | — | .339 | 33.3 | 100.0 | 67 | 43.8 | 177 | 8 |
| vs RHP | .111 | .081 | 20.0 | 60.0 | 40 | 28.6 | 85 | 9 |
STSweeper
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .083 | .193 | 0.0 | 71.4 | 86 | 27.8 | 85 | 12 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
95
🐾vs RHB
114
vs SHB
104
Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bolte.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .438). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP64PA | .036 | .304 | .648 | 2.2% | 0 |
| 🐾vs LHP28PA | .200 | .560 | .989 | 16.7% | 1 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home47PA | .070 | .372 | .712 | 9.4% | 1 |
| Away45PA | .106 | .395 | .795 | — | 0 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day20PA | .062 | .250 | .600 | 7.7% | 0 |
| 🐾Night72PA | .092 | .415 | .790 | 4.5% | 1 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty38PA | — | .206 | .495 | 0 |
| Runners On42PA | .200 | .629 | 1.129 | 1 |
| RISP19PA | — | .231 | .652 | 0 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs25PA | .120 | .400 | .680 | 1 |
| 1 Out37PA | .066 | .333 | .711 | 0 |
| 2 Outs30PA | .077 | .423 | .856 | 0 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-015PA | .071 | .357 | .690 | 0 |
| 1-012PA | .181 | .636 | 1.136 | 0 |
| 0-19PA | — | .500 | 1.056 | 0 |
| 2-01PA | — | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0 |
| 0-213PA | .077 | .154 | .231 | 0 |
| 3-01PA | — | — | 1.000 | 0 |
| 1-213PA | .083 | .333 | .641 | 0 |
| 2-216PA | — | .250 | .500 | 0 |
| 3-211PA | — | — | .455 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Fri.