Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.7%

+753

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

10.4%

+857

RBI 1+

33.9%

+195

Hits 1+

63.2%

-171

Hits 2+

21.0%

+377

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.6%

95% CI · 9.3–10.0%

+937

Fair odds

1st AB

2.3%

Through AB2

4.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
vs SP-12%
Contact-5%
SP Contact-7%

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0270 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+755

High

+1175

Low

+520

Med

+752

Avg

+795

🐾+755

Low +520🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1175

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.6

Proj PA

378

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.164

wOBA

.339

wRC+

117

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

36.9

FB%

41.9

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

12.1

GB%

39.9

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

6.9

Hard%

41.5

FB%

44.6

Pull%

29.2

Soft%

9.2

GB%

35.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

34.6

FB%

40.6

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

13.5

GB%

42.1

Home

HR/FB

15.0

Hard%

40.2

FB%

37.4

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

14.0

GB%

43.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

7.0

Hard%

33.0

FB%

47.3

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

9.9

GB%

35.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
Connor Prielipp stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, CU)
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (4.9%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.341↑ vs season .24745 PA · 15d

OPS

.766

ISO

.025

RBI

K-BB

4-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIN	4	2	1	1	2	.500
06-11	@ NYM	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ NYM	5	3	0	0	0	.600
06-09	@ NYM	5	1	2	0	0	.200
06-07	vs CIN	3	0	0	2	1	—
06-02	vs TEX	5	2	0	0	0	.400
06-01	vs TEX	4	0	0	0	0	—
05-31	vs CHC	3	2	0	1	1	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlidervL14PA	—	.240	0.0	36.4	64	12.5
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL26PA	.363	.424	29.4	64.7	41	23.4
🐾CUCurveball17PA	.076	.384	0.0	46.2	85	12.9
🐾CHChangeup28PA	.148	.290	4.3	31.8	70	26.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.240	0.0	36.4	64	12.5	103	14
vs RHP	.166	.227	0.0	78.6	71	25.0	119	18

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.363	.424	29.4	64.7	41	23.4	103	26
vs RHP	.276	.414	16.7	52.1	56	23.4	119	77

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.091	.271	0.0	40.0	80	8.7	119	12

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.160	.319	4.8	33.3	76	25.0	119	26

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

107

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wetherholt.

Season Statcast

ISO

.140

Barrel %

7.1

Hard Hit %

47.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.350

xBA

.247

Brl / PA %

4.90

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Avg EV on HRs

103.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/9

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

4.90

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Connor Prielipp · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.240
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
36.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
64
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 14 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.424
Whiff%
23.4
HH%
64.7
BRL%
29.4
Pull%
41
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.384
Whiff%
12.9
HH%
46.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
85
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Connor Prielipp (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	31.7	12.8	43.6	51	.293	19.6
FF4-Seam Fastball	30.6	8.3	30.6	33	.397	10.0
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	20.0	90	.074	23.8
CHChangeup	12.6	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	21.1	47.4	42	.314	17.9	28
vs RHB	5.0	40.0	60	.278	20.6	38

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	33	.494	20.0	11
vs RHB	3.3	23.3	33	.361	6.8	41

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	75	.127	5.3	5
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	16.7	100	.061	31.8	21

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .590). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball7

CHChangeup1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP195PA	.153	.412	.766	6.3%	7
🐾vs LHP95PA	.105	.342	.710	12.1%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home140PA	.153	.403	.724	9.1%	6
🐾Away150PA	.123	.377	.770	7.1%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day118PA	.133	.327	.641	12.4%	4
Night172PA	.141	.432	.822	5.0%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty77PA	.135	.299	.572	2
Runners On96PA	.145	.461	.899	3
RISP62PA	.104	.417	.852	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs134PA	.128	.402	.760	4
1 Out85PA	.172	.443	.831	3
2 Outs71PA	.119	.305	.629	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-033PA	.250	.625	1.019	2
1-014PA	—	.214	.429	0
0-126PA	.136	.409	.717	1
2-05PA	.600	.800	1.000	1
0-213PA	.250	.417	.647	1
3-07PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-239PA	.027	.243	.500	0
2-255PA	.039	.154	.299	0
3-246PA	.226	.581	1.146	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.