Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.0%

+905

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 79

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.5%

+956

RBI 1+

33.0%

+203

Hits 1+

64.7%

-183

Hits 2+

22.5%

+344

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.9%

95% CI · 8.6–9.2%

+1026

Fair odds

1st AB

2.4%

Through AB2

4.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Lineup+3%
Contact-1%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0262 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+775

High

+1145

Low

+535

Med

+852

Avg

+834

🐾+775

Low +535🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1145

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+9002026-07-04vs CHCbook line

AwayBat 1stoff LHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.2

Proj PA

269

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.161

wOBA

.338

wRC+

115

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

36.3

FB%

39.2

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

11.4

GB%

40.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.0

Hard%

41.2

FB%

42.2

Pull%

24.5

Soft%

8.8

GB%

35.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

33.7

FB%

37.6

Pull%

43.3

Soft%

12.8

GB%

43.5

Home

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

36.3

FB%

34.6

Pull%

36.3

Soft%

12.1

GB%

47.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

36.4

FB%

44.7

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

10.6

GB%

32.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (5.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.316↑ vs season .25642 PA · 15d

OPS

.776

ISO

.079

RBI

K-BB

5-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SD	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-16	vs SD	4	3	0	0	1	0	.750
06-15	vs SD	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	@ MIN	5	2	1	3	0	1	1.000
💣 380ft · 101.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-13	@ MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ MIN	4	2	0	1	1	2	.500
06-11	@ NYM	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ NYM	5	3	0	0	0	0	.600

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball103PA	.330	.420	20.0	54.5	53	24.2
🐾CHChangeup29PA	.142	.285	4.2	30.4	71	25.9
🐾FCCutter21PA	—	.328	6.2	25.0	75	23.9
🐾CUCurveball17PA	.076	.384	0.0	46.2	85	12.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.348	.434	27.8	66.7	39	22.4	114	27
vs RHP	.300	.416	17.3	51.9	58	21.9	119	82

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.154	.312	4.5	31.8	77	24.5	119	27

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.311	6.7	20.0	73	24.4	119	20

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.091	.271	0.0	40.0	80	8.7	119	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wetherholt.

Season Statcast

ISO

.140

Barrel %

7.4

Hard Hit %

46.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.354

xBA

.256

Brl / PA %

5.20

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Avg EV on HRs

103.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/9

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

5.20

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.420
Whiff%
24.2
HH%
54.5
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
.285
Whiff%
25.9
HH%
30.4
BRL%
4.2
Pull%
71
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.328
Whiff%
23.9
HH%
25.0
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
75

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .590). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball7

CHChangeup1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 32 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP207PA	.160	.420	.773	7.2%	8
vs LHP101PA	.098	.354	.730	11.1%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home153PA	.140	.397	.724	8.3%	6
🐾Away155PA	.142	.402	.796	8.7%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day127PA	.149	.355	.670	13.4%	5
🐾Night181PA	.134	.429	.821	4.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty84PA	.122	.311	.597	2
Runners On103PA	.171	.488	.925	4
RISP64PA	.100	.420	.858	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs141PA	.145	.419	.774	5
1 Out89PA	.162	.446	.839	3
2 Outs78PA	.108	.308	.641	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.