Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.2%

+794

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (RHP) (0.99 HR/9) · park 85

2+ RBI

10.2%

+885

RBI 1+

33.6%

+198

Hits 1+

62.6%

-168

Hits 2+

20.5%

+389

FG · Blended (2-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

0.3%

95% CI · 0.3–0.4%

+31479

Fair odds

1st AB

0.1%

Through AB2

0.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
vs SP-34%
Contact-30%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast-17%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs José Soriano (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0018 · blended_2sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-34% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-30% (×0.70)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+795

High

+4120

Low

+535

Med

+1270

Avg

+1448

+795

Low +535High +4120

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.0

Proj PA

301

ISO

.051

wOBA

.289

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.0

FB%

21.8

Pull%

26.9

Soft%

15.6

GB%

57.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

8.7

FB%

26.6

Pull%

27.5

Soft%

11.6

GB%

57.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

21.0

FB%

19.6

Pull%

26.6

Soft%

17.5

GB%

57.2

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

13.6

FB%

25.5

Pull%

28.2

Soft%

10.7

GB%

55.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.2

FB%

18.3

Pull%

25.7

Soft%

20.2

GB%

59.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Angel Stadium suppresses HRs (85)
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.094↓ vs season .24435 PA · 15d

OPS

.265

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

6-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ LAA	3	1	0	—
06-10	vs BOS	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs BOS	4	0	2	—
06-08	vs BOS	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ MIA	0	1	0	—
06-05	@ MIA	2	0	0	—
06-03	vs DET	4	0	1	—
06-02	vs DET	4	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR19PA	.052	.291	16.7	44	3.4
🐾CUCurveballvR8PA	—	.392	16.7	50	23.1
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR81PA	—	.252	18.6	31	2.9
🐾FSSplit-FingervR13PA	—	.226	8.3	67	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.062	.260	0.0	13.3	67	2.5	35	33
vs RHPTONIGHT	.052	.291	0.0	16.7	44	3.4	94	19

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.392	0.0	16.7	50	23.1	94	8

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.250	0.0	10.0	25	3.3	35	23
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.252	0.0	18.6	31	2.9	94	81

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.226	0.0	8.3	67	4.3	94	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Simpson.

Season Statcast

ISO

.051

Barrel %

7.5

Hard Hit %

15.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.253

xBA

.244

Brl / PA %

6.18

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

99.1

Avg EV on HRs

99.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

344

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

22.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.291
Whiff%
3.4
HH%
16.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
44
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.392
Whiff%
23.1
HH%
16.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.252
Whiff%
2.9
HH%
18.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
31
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 81 PA this season.

Career vs José Soriano (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

1-0

José Soriano (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	26.5	9.3	47.3	69	.383	17.6
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.2	—	26.2	—	.249	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	18.0	47.9	50	.417	18.1
FSSplit-Finger	19.4	2.5	17.9	73	.200	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	58.3	72	.472	4.5	45
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	38.5	67	.311	25.8	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	57	.464	16.3	49
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.6	40

FSSplit-Finger19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	18.8	78	.197	25.3	56
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.214	23.8	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .346). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP173PA	.050	.344	.683	—	0
vs LHP85PA	.051	.266	.504	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home127PA	.042	.294	.577	—	0
🐾Away131PA	.059	.342	.670	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day117PA	.027	.275	.566	—	0
🐾Night141PA	.069	.354	.673	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty81PA	.064	.359	.680
Runners On99PA	.023	.244	.525
RISP56PA	—	.319	.689

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs101PA	.055	.352	.679
1 Out71PA	.029	.275	.543
2 Outs86PA	.063	.316	.630

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-045PA	.069	.395	.706	1
1-028PA	—	.250	.500	0
0-141PA	.100	.450	.791	0
2-05PA	—	.400	.800	0
0-219PA	—	.105	.211	0
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-235PA	—	.200	.400	0
2-228PA	.074	.259	.438	0
3-224PA	—	.333	.833	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.