Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

20.9%

+379

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 117

2+ RBI

15.5%

+546

RBI 1+

38.4%

+160

Hits 1+

71.4%

-249

Hits 2+

30.2%

+232

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.9%

95% CI · 7.6–8.3%

+1159

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Contact-5%
SP Contact+6%
Statcast+4%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0140 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+4% (×1.04)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+950

High

+1075

Low

+490

Med

+750

Avg

+748

+950

Low +490High +1075

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.7

Proj PA

227

HR / PA

.021

ISO

.132

wOBA

.334

wRC+

113

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

32.1

FB%

28.2

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

12.4

GB%

48.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.8

FB%

18.2

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

24.4

GB%

72.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.3

Hard%

35.8

FB%

30.8

Pull%

34.7

Soft%

9.2

GB%

42.4

Home

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

26.5

FB%

27.0

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

13.3

GB%

50.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

38.1

FB%

29.5

Pull%

34.3

Soft%

11.4

GB%

46.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Hot streak: .972 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (5.6%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.306↑ vs season .29945 PA · 15d

OPS

.972

ISO

.222

RBI

K-BB

9-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ NYY	4	1	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 422ft · 105.1 EV · Sinker
06-16	@ NYY	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-14	vs LAD	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 415ft · 104.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-13	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-12	vs LAD	4	1	0	1	1	1	.250
06-09	vs ATL	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-07	@ PHI	4	2	0	1	0	2	.500
06-06	@ PHI	3	0	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball68PA	.151	.442	12.8	45.7	47	15.0
🐾CHChangeup28PA	—	.267	0.0	18.2	52	20.0
🐾SISinker42PA	.200	.427	9.4	51.6	59	10.0
🐾STSweeper17PA	.154	.279	0.0	10.0	55	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.157	.444	13.6	47.7	46	15.3	149	65

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.294	0.0	19.0	52	15.8	149	26

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.240	0.0	22.2	78	9.5	12	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.269	.531	13.0	65.2	52	4.8	149	30

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.223	0.0	0.0	80	16.7	12	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.320	0.0	16.7	33	11.1	149	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Antonacci.

Season Statcast

ISO

.114

Barrel %

7.9

Hard Hit %

36.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.373

xBA

.299

Brl / PA %

5.60

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

98.0

Avg EV on HRs

98.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

1.0°

Brl / PA %

5.60

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.442
Whiff%
15.0
HH%
45.7
BRL%
12.8
Pull%
47
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
.267
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
18.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
52
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 28 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
.427
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
51.6
BRL%
9.4
Pull%
59
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .688). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP173PA	.143	.463	.876	8.5%	3
vs LHP43PA	—	.111	.349	3.7%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home108PA	.096	.376	.734	6.5%	1
🐾Away108PA	.133	.411	.809	8.8%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day85PA	.094	.297	.595	4.9%	1
🐾Night131PA	.129	.459	.890	9.4%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty66PA	.068	.407	.816	0
Runners On67PA	.169	.509	.955	1
RISP41PA	.161	.548	1.048	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs107PA	.143	.363	.687	3
1 Out57PA	.100	.580	1.106	0
2 Outs52PA	.071	.238	.565	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.