Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.0%

+900

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Carlos Rodón (LHP) (0.58 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #7Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.5%

+952

RBI 1+

33.0%

+203

Hits 1+

71.4%

-249

Hits 2+

30.2%

+232

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.3%

95% CI · 4.1–4.5%

+2226

Fair odds

1st AB

1.1%

Through AB2

2.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Wind+6%
vs SP-6%
Contact-18%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast+3%
SP Statcast-6%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Carlos Rodón (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·12 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0115 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-6% (×0.94) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind+6% (×1.06)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-18% (×0.82)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed-6% (×0.94)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+900

High

+1665

Low

+470

Med

+945

Avg

+909

+900

Low +470High +1665

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.4

Proj PA

304

HR / PA

.018

ISO

.123

wOBA

.330

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.1

Hard%

30.6

FB%

26.9

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

12.2

GB%

48.3

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

12.5

FB%

21.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

25.0

GB%

78.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

34.1

FB%

27.9

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

9.8

GB%

42.6

Home

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

28.6

FB%

26.7

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

14.3

GB%

48.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

32.9

FB%

27.1

Pull%

30.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

48.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Carlos Rodón stingy: only 0.58 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
13 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (5.3%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.58 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.278↓ vs season .29945 PA · 15d

OPS

.839

ISO

.139

RBI

K-BB

8-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ NYY	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-14	vs LAD	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 415ft · 104.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-13	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-12	vs LAD	4	1	0	1	1	1	.250
06-09	vs ATL	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-07	@ PHI	4	2	0	1	0	2	.500
06-06	@ PHI	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-05	@ PHI	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball66PA	.154	.436	13.0	46.7	46	14.9
🐾SLSlidervL8PA	—	.159	33.3	33.3	33	20.0
🐾SISinkervL12PA	—	.255	0.0	12.5	75	11.1
🐾CHChangeup27PA	—	.277	0.0	18.2	52	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.157	.439	13.6	47.7	46	14.9	145	64

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.159	33.3	33.3	33	20.0	7	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.360	10.0	60.0	80	11.1	145	15

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.255	0.0	12.5	75	11.1	7	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.160	.483	9.1	63.6	50	5.1	145	29

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.307	0.0	19.0	52	15.8	145	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Antonacci.

Season Statcast

ISO

.103

Barrel %

7.5

Hard Hit %

35.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.370

xBA

.299

Brl / PA %

5.30

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

98.0

Avg EV on HRs

98.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

1.0°

Brl / PA %

5.30

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Carlos Rodón · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.436
Whiff%
14.9
HH%
46.7
BRL%
13.0
Pull%
46
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.159
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
33.3
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
33
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.255
Whiff%
11.1
HH%
12.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 12 PA this season.

Carlos Rodón (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.0	8.0	52.0	52	.383	18.0
SLSlider	25.8	11.1	33.3	67	.220	21.9
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	25.0	65	.217	30.0
CHChangeup	12.8	0.0	18.2	82	.228	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	28.6	42.9	71	.480	25.0	12
vs RHB	0.0	55.6	44	.356	16.3	41

SLSlider26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	37.5	75	.283	13.0	12
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	30.0	60	.184	26.8	21

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	63	.175	40.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	67	.244	20.0	14

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	0.0	18.2	82	.228	17.9	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .688). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP171PA	.124	.441	.853	7.8%	2
🐾vs LHP41PA	—	.118	.368	4.0%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home108PA	.096	.376	.734	6.5%	1
🐾Away104PA	.105	.384	.788	7.9%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day85PA	.094	.297	.595	4.9%	1
🐾Night127PA	.105	.438	.875	8.7%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty66PA	.068	.407	.816	0
Runners On66PA	.173	.519	.972	1
RISP41PA	.161	.548	1.048	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs104PA	.114	.330	.654	2
1 Out57PA	.100	.580	1.106	0
2 Outs51PA	.073	.244	.577	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Wed.