Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

10.3%

+874

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 131

2+ RBI

9.7%

+936

RBI 1+

33.1%

+202

Hits 1+

58.5%

-141

Hits 2+

16.7%

+499

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.8%

95% CI · 6.5–7.1%

+1370

Fair odds

1st AB

1.5%

Through AB2

3.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
vs SP-13%
Contact-20%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0207 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-20% (×0.80)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+1895

High

+1150

Low

+690

Med

+858

Avg

+896

+1895

Low +690High +1150

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.7

Proj PA

294

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.136

wOBA

.313

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.1

Hard%

27.2

FB%

44.0

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

19.1

GB%

33.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

35.5

FB%

43.3

Pull%

45.2

Soft%

16.1

GB%

36.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

3.3

Hard%

25.4

FB%

44.2

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

19.7

GB%

32.6

Home

HR/FB

4.9

Hard%

34.4

FB%

45.1

Pull%

36.6

Soft%

16.1

GB%

29.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

3.0

Hard%

18.8

FB%

42.9

Pull%

42.5

Soft%

22.5

GB%

37.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Park boost (131)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.226↑ vs season .22141 PA · 15d

OPS

.705

ISO

.064

RBI

K-BB

8-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ PIT	3	1	0	0	1	.667
06-12	@ PIT	4	0	0	1	3	—
06-11	vs ARI	2	1	1	1	0	.500
06-10	vs ARI	3	1	0	1	0	.667
06-09	vs ARI	5	1	0	0	1	.200
06-07	vs TB	1	1	0	2	0	1.000
06-06	vs TB	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs TB	2	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR92PA	.117	.292	3.2	28.6	52	6.7
🐾SISinkervR27PA	—	.334	5.6	33.3	56	10.5
🐾STSweeper15PA	—	.241	0.0	50.0	75	33.3
🐾FSSplit-FingervR14PA	.167	.342	10.0	50.0	50	40.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.077	.364	12.5	62.5	38	18.2	101	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.117	.292	3.2	28.6	52	6.7	83	92

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.300	0.0	30.0	60	17.4	101	20
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.334	5.6	33.3	56	10.5	83	27

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.197	0.0	50.0	67	25.0	101	12
vs RHP	no sample

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.167	.342	10.0	50.0	50	40.0	83	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Marsee.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 2 of 3 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.102

Barrel %

3.5

Hard Hit %

35.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.309

xBA

.221

Brl / PA %

2.10

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

374

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

24.3°

Brl / PA %

2.10

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.292
Whiff%
6.7
HH%
28.6
BRL%
3.2
Pull%
52
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.334
Whiff%
10.5
HH%
33.3
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
56
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.241
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.

Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	38.9	9.1	43.2	46	.244	22.7
SISinker	16.7	10.3	35.9	49	.321	14.3
STSweeper	13.5	5.9	23.5	71	.341	17.1
FSSplit-Finger	12.7	4.2	29.2	75	.257	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	41.2	47	.258	19.1	53
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	40	.208	31.0	20

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.117	15.4	6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	40.0	51	.354	13.6	39

STSweeper14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	71	.633	0.0	8
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	70	.204	20.7	17

FSSplit-Finger13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.3	31.6	74	.326	9.4	22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	80	.119	42.9	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .373). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP220PA	.085	.299	.628	3.4%	2
vs LHP65PA	.164	.327	.681	3.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home148PA	.091	.283	.621	3.2%	2
🐾Away137PA	.112	.328	.659	3.5%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day120PA	.106	.287	.645	1.5%	1
Night165PA	.099	.317	.634	4.5%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty94PA	.087	.309	.639	1
Runners On105PA	.090	.308	.712	1
RISP56PA	.125	.400	.864	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs112PA	.153	.347	.633	2
1 Out93PA	.027	.194	.542	0
2 Outs80PA	.106	.364	.752	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.