Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.1%

+564

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 107

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

12.3%

+714

RBI 1+

35.5%

+181

Hits 1+

60.9%

-156

Hits 2+

18.8%

+432

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.5%

95% CI · 7.2–7.8%

+1236

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Lineup+3%
Contact+1%
SP Contact+12%
Statcast-11%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0143 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-11% (×0.89)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+725

High

+4000

Low

+775

Med

+950

Avg

+1125

+725

Low +775High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.7

Proj PA

250

HR / PA

.011

ISO

.084

wOBA

.298

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

26.4

FB%

27.2

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

12.8

GB%

51.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

32.9

FB%

24.4

Pull%

44.3

Soft%

10.1

GB%

47.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.2

Hard%

23.5

FB%

28.5

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

14.0

GB%

52.9

Home

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

21.9

FB%

28.6

Pull%

40.1

Soft%

13.9

GB%

48.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

31.4

FB%

25.6

Pull%

42.1

Soft%

11.6

GB%

54.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Yankee Stadium mild HR boost (+7)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Hot streak: .781 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.302↑ vs season .23448 PA · 15d

OPS

.781

ISO

.117

RBI

K-BB

12-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ NYY	5	2	0	0	0	2	.600
06-16	@ NYY	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-14	vs LAD	3	1	1	2	0	1	1.333
💣 366ft · 99.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-13	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-12	vs LAD	3	3	0	2	1	0	1.000
06-10	vs ATL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	vs ATL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-07	@ PHI	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball83PA	.215	.380	9.1	52.2	49	16.4
🐾CHChangeup32PA	.064	.228	0.0	38.1	57	34.7
🐾SISinker72PA	.047	.291	1.6	37.5	61	8.1
🐾STSweeper22PA	.050	.157	0.0	—	79	24.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.292	.433	5.3	47.4	42	4.1	178	30
vs RHP	.241	.351	11.1	61.1	53	17.2	85	65

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.095	.248	0.0	43.8	50	28.1	178	21
vs RHP	.083	.202	0.0	28.6	71	40.0	85	13

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.182	.262	10.0	40.0	50	0.0	178	11
vs RHP	.017	.297	0.0	37.3	63	7.6	85	67

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.148	0.0	0.0	83	28.6	85	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

🐾vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Meidroth.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed2 of 3 HRs · 67%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 2 of 3 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.121

Barrel %

5.0

Hard Hit %

36.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.293

xBA

.234

Brl / PA %

3.30

Max EV (mph)

107.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.7

Avg EV on HRs

101.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

384

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

30.5°

Brl / PA %

3.30

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.380
Whiff%
16.4
HH%
52.2
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
49
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
.228
Whiff%
34.7
HH%
38.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
57
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 32 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
.291
Whiff%
8.1
HH%
37.5
BRL%
1.6
Pull%
61

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .333). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SL🐾Slider2

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP219PA	.094	.339	.655	5.1%	4
vs LHP80PA	.197	.563	.993	4.8%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home146PA	.133	.406	.746	5.3%	3
🐾Away153PA	.112	.393	.746	4.8%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day142PA	.129	.411	.764	6.7%	3
🐾Night157PA	.115	.388	.730	3.5%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty102PA	.033	.300	.647	0
Runners On99PA	.129	.388	.704	3
RISP60PA	.120	.340	.621	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs129PA	.198	.486	.856	4
1 Out87PA	.068	.338	.683	1
2 Outs83PA	.064	.333	.646	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.