Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.1%

+725

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

10.7%

+838

RBI 1+

34.1%

+194

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.1%

95% CI · 12.7–13.5%

+663

Fair odds

1st AB

3.4%

Through AB2

6.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact-11%
SP Contact-10%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game
·Soft contact profile (season) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0404 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 5 games

Now

+725

High

+795

Low

+365

Med

+580

Avg

+604

+725

Low +365High +795

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.6

Proj PA

HR / PA

.034

ISO

.158

wOBA

.278

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

60.0

FB%

40.0

Pull%

20.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

20.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .25011 PA · 15d

OPS

.573

ISO

.100

RBI

K-BB

5-1

Game Log · Last 5

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-10	@ LAA	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	@ LAA	2	1	0	1	.500
06-08	@ LAA	4	1	0	2	.500
06-06	vs ATH	1	0	0	0	—
06-04	vs PIT	3	0	1	2	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Price.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Tonight's SP throws (top 3)

FF 29%
CH 22%
FC 19%

Heatmap below = batter's season-wide damage on all pitches. Per-pitch slices populate on the next pipeline refresh.

Hover / tap a cell to inspect.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP9PA	.125	.250	.472	—	0
🐾vs LHP2PA	—	.500	1.000	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Home5PA	—	—	.200	0
🐾Away6PA	.167	.500	.833	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Day1PA	—	—	—	0
🐾Night10PA	.111	.333	.633	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty4PA	.333	1.000	1.750
Runners On5PA	—	—	—
RISP3PA	—	—	—

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs3PA	—	—	—
1 Out1PA	1.000	2.000	3.000
2 Outs7PA	—	.167	.453

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0-01PA	—	—	—
1-01PA	—	—	—
2-01PA	—	—	—
0-25PA	—	—	—
1-21PA	—	—	—
2-22PA	—	.500	1.000
3-23PA	—	—	.333

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.