Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.4%

+645

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) (2.21 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

11.4%

+778

RBI 1+

34.7%

+188

Hits 1+

66.5%

-198

Hits 2+

24.4%

+309

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.4%

95% CI · 7.1–7.7%

+1256

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact-11%
SP Contact+16%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Freeland (LHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·87F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0155 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.6

Proj PA

316

HR / PA

.008

ISO

.089

wOBA

.320

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

22.4

FB%

27.7

Pull%

34.3

Soft%

16.1

GB%

50.4

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

15.4

FB%

35.1

Pull%

20.5

Soft%

17.9

GB%

45.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

25.0

FB%

25.0

Pull%

39.4

Soft%

15.4

GB%

51.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

19.0

FB%

34.9

Pull%

34.9

Soft%

22.2

GB%

42.9

Away

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

25.0

FB%

21.8

Pull%

33.8

Soft%

11.3

GB%

56.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
Kyle Freeland is leaky — 2.21 HR/9 allowed
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (44% of career HRs)
87°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)
Pitcher HR-prone (2.21 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.000↓ vs season .2674 PA · 15d

OPS

.250

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs COL	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
05-10	@ BAL	2	1	0	0	0	0	.500
05-09	@ BAL	5	0	0	0	0	3	—
05-08	@ BAL	3	2	0	1	1	0	.667
05-07	@ PHI	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 350ft · 99.5 EV · Sinker
05-06	@ PHI	5	1	0	1	0	1	.200
05-05	@ PHI	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
05-03	vs CLE	4	1	0	0	1	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL18PA	—	.168	0.0	7.1	29	10.2
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter10PA	.400	.288	12.5	25.0	75	38.1
🐾CHChangeupvL19PA	.111	.214	0.0	11.8	41	20.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.168	0.0	7.1	29	10.2	78	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.050	.285	7.1	57.1	50	23.7	100	22

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.500	.325	20.0	20.0	60	40.0	100	6

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.111	.214	0.0	11.8	41	20.8	78	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.270	0.0	30.0	90	14.3	100	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wilson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 4 of 9 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.106

Barrel %

2.1

Hard Hit %

30.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.275

xBA

.267

Brl / PA %

1.80

Max EV (mph)

105.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.3

Avg EV on HRs

99.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

368

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

1.80

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Freeland · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.168
Whiff%
10.2
HH%
7.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
29
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
23
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.288
Whiff%
38.1
HH%
25.0
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
75

Kyle Freeland (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.2	11.5	42.9	60	.450	8.8
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.6	—	52.6	—	.382	19.7
FCCutter	17.9	12.9	33.3	71	.363	16.7
CHChangeup	15.9	6.7	51.2	60	.371	15.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	44.4	56	.359	4.3	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.0	39.5	61	.465	11.3	58

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	16.7	67	.429	16.7	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.0	40.0	72	.348	15.0	29

CHChangeup16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	6.7	51.1	60	.372	14.0	54

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .345). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker2

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP125PA	.116	.408	.728	2.6%	3
🐾vs LHP47PA	.068	.341	.624	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home76PA	.112	.408	.750	2.7%	2
Away96PA	.096	.376	.660	1.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day75PA	.095	.392	.699	2.8%	1
🐾Night97PA	.111	.389	.702	1.2%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty48PA	.108	.391	.704	1
Runners On72PA	.147	.426	.722	2
RISP44PA	.049	.293	.566	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs68PA	.108	.446	.804	1
1 Out54PA	.173	.404	.645	2
2 Outs50PA	.021	.298	.618	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.214	.607	1.000	1
1-09PA	—	.444	.889	0
0-127PA	.148	.370	.593	1
2-01PA	—	—	—	0
0-215PA	—	.133	.267	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-235PA	.118	.353	.582	1
2-212PA	.083	.333	.583	0
3-210PA	—	—	—	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Sat.