Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.8%

+1033

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #4Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.9%

+1029

RBI 1+

32.4%

+208

Hits 1+

65.3%

-189

Hits 2+

23.2%

+331

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.8%

95% CI · 3.6–4.0%

+2513

Fair odds

1st AB

0.8%

Through AB2

1.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-35%
Contact-16%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast-16%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0165 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+925

High

+1355

Low

+680

Med

+998

Avg

+1007

+925

Low +680High +1355

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.2

Proj PA

263

HR / PA

.008

ISO

.087

wOBA

.312

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

23.6

FB%

27.9

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

16.1

GB%

50.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

22.6

FB%

36.7

Pull%

22.6

Soft%

17.7

GB%

45.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

24.1

FB%

24.1

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

15.3

GB%

52.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

22.3

FB%

35.1

Pull%

34.0

Soft%

21.3

GB%

44.7

Away

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

24.8

FB%

21.4

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

11.4

GB%

55.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (44% of career HRs)
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.211↓ vs season .26021 PA · 15d

OPS

.549

ISO

.052

RBI

K-BB

2-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs PIT	3	1	2	0	0	.333
06-16	vs PIT	4	1	0	1	1	.250
06-15	vs PIT	5	1	0	0	1	.400
06-13	vs COL	4	1	2	0	0	.250
06-12	vs COL	3	0	0	1	0	—
05-10	@ BAL	2	1	0	0	0	.500
05-09	@ BAL	5	0	0	0	3	—
05-08	@ BAL	3	2	1	1	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker61PA	.138	.320	1.6	42.9	43	7.7
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball40PA	.028	.225	3.1	22.2	34	19.0
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.404	0.0	50.0	33	14.3	70	7
vs RHP	.140	.309	1.8	45.5	44	5.0	96	59

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.182	0.0	6.2	25	11.5	70	20
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.044	.265	6.2	50.0	44	17.0	96	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wilson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Projected0 of 9 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 4 of 9 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.100

Barrel %

1.9

Hard Hit %

27.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.271

xBA

.260

Brl / PA %

1.60

Max EV (mph)

105.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.3

Avg EV on HRs

99.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

368

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

1.60

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.320
Whiff%
7.7
HH%
42.9
BRL%
1.6
Pull%
43
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.225
Whiff%
19.0
HH%
22.2
BRL%
3.1
Pull%
34
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 40 PA this season.

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.667AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

1.467

RBI

K-BB

0-2

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .345). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker2

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP138PA	.114	.402	.721	2.4%	3
vs LHP51PA	.062	.333	.613	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home93PA	.104	.391	.724	2.2%	2
Away96PA	.096	.376	.660	1.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day75PA	.095	.392	.699	2.8%	1
🐾Night114PA	.103	.377	.687	1.0%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty53PA	.098	.373	.675	1
Runners On81PA	.145	.434	.747	2
RISP51PA	.043	.298	.592	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs73PA	.114	.443	.790	1
1 Out59PA	.161	.411	.682	2
2 Outs57PA	.019	.278	.576	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.