Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

9.0%

+1013

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kai-Wei Teng (RHP) (1.06 HR/9) · park 88

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.9%

+1018

RBI 1+

32.5%

+208

Hits 1+

66.6%

-200

Hits 2+

24.6%

+306

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.9%

95% CI · 8.6–9.2%

+1022

Fair odds

1st AB

2.3%

Through AB2

4.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
vs SP-5%
Contact-16%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+6%
SP Statcast-6%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kai-Wei Teng (RHP)

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0263 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed-6% (×0.94)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games · 1 HR

Now

+600

High

+8030

Low

+375

Med

+690

Avg

+1517

🐾+600

Low +375🐾 HR money zoneHigh +8030

WARMspot score 95

Just below his HR money zone (+485 to +485). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4852026-06-07vs SEAfair odds

HomeBat 2ndoff RHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.1

Proj PA

382

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.168

wOBA

.341

wRC+

115

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

28.2

FB%

46.8

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

19.0

GB%

30.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

22.8

FB%

38.6

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

24.6

GB%

36.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

30.2

FB%

49.7

Pull%

40.3

Soft%

17.0

GB%

27.7

Home

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

25.5

FB%

51.0

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

19.6

GB%

30.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.1

Hard%

30.7

FB%

43.0

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

18.4

GB%

29.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Daikin Park suppresses HRs (88)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Park drag (88)
High barrels/PA (6.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.244↓ vs season .26850 PA · 15d

OPS

.770

ISO

.146

RBI

K-BB

5-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ CLE	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200
06-12	@ CLE	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	vs MIN	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-10	vs MIN	2	0	0	0	3	0	—
06-09	vs MIN	4	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-07	vs SEA	4	2	1	3	1	1	1.250
💣 420ft · 109.4 EV · Slider
06-06	vs SEA	3	1	0	0	1	0	.667
06-05	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR11PA	—	.005	0.0	20.0	60	11.8
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR76PA	.154	.412	14.3	41.1	52	9.8
🐾SISinkervR44PA	.136	.411	9.1	57.6	61	7.1
🐾CHChangeupvR36PA	—	.329	4.2	25.0	79	24.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.200	.149	0.0	0.0	75	18.2	105	5
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.005	0.0	20.0	60	11.8	134	11

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.210	.402	12.5	43.8	63	7.7	105	25
vs RHPTONIGHT	.154	.412	14.3	41.1	52	9.8	134	76

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.042	.375	0.0	20.8	54	4.7	105	27
vs RHPTONIGHT	.136	.411	9.1	57.6	61	7.1	134	44

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.181	0.0	33.3	33	25.0	105	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.329	4.2	25.0	79	24.1	134	36

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

115

vs SHB

102

Daikin Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches McGonigle.

Season Statcast

ISO

.129

Barrel %

8.3

Hard Hit %

36.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.363

xBA

.268

Brl / PA %

6.00

Max EV (mph)

109.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.8

Avg EV on HRs

107.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

417

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

6.00

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kai-Wei Teng · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

STSweepervs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.005
Whiff%
11.8
HH%
20.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 11 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.412
Whiff%
9.8
HH%
41.1
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
52
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.411
Whiff%
7.1
HH%
57.6
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
61
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Kai-Wei Teng (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.4	3.7	29.6	59	.263	23.5
FF4-Seam Fastball	25.1	5.9	48.5	56	.350	12.2
SISinker	18.0	3.2	42.9	55	.330	23.1
CHChangeup	9.7	6.2	46.7	81	.417	11.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.0	25.0	65	.284	32.5	40
vs RHB	2.9	32.4	56	.248	20.0	56

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	42.9	62	.361	14.3	28
vs RHB	7.7	53.8	46	.335	10.2	21

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	44.4	67	.365	—	12
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	45.5	50	.314	25.0	29

CHChangeup10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	43.8	81	.417	13.6	20
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .506). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (HOU)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Daikin Park (315/409/326 ft) · elev 50ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 36 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP219PA	.146	.427	.820	11.2%	3
vs LHP81PA	.084	.352	.710	3.3%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home145PA	.141	.408	.801	8.3%	2
🐾Away155PA	.117	.404	.778	9.9%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day114PA	.188	.515	.919	12.1%	2
🐾Night186PA	.090	.335	.706	6.9%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty98PA	.114	.367	.765	1
Runners On116PA	.087	.359	.712	0
RISP60PA	.098	.392	.792	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs114PA	.190	.470	.838	3
1 Out100PA	.154	.452	.862	1
2 Outs86PA	.014	.264	.636	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.