Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.8%

+825

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #7Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.0%

+905

RBI 1+

33.4%

+199

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

22.6%

95% CI · 22.1–23.1%

+343

Fair odds

1st AB

5.9%

Through AB2

11.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
Contact+6%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast+25%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0384 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+1190

High

+3300

Low

+505

Med

+648

Avg

+792

🐾+1190

Low +505🐾 HR money zoneHigh +3300

BELOW ZONEspot score 53

Longer price than he's homered at (+505 to +505). Model sees less pop tonight.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+5052026-07-09vs COLbook line

HomeBat 6thoff RHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.7

Proj PA

190

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.188

wOBA

.322

wRC+

105

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

45.6

FB%

35.3

Pull%

45.6

Soft%

11.8

GB%

39.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

36.4

FB%

30.3

Pull%

48.5

Soft%

12.1

GB%

42.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

48.5

FB%

36.9

Pull%

44.7

Soft%

11.7

GB%

37.9

Home

HR/FB

22.7

Hard%

53.1

FB%

34.4

Pull%

54.7

Soft%

12.5

GB%

37.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

38.9

FB%

36.1

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

11.1

GB%

40.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (CH, SI)
Hot streak: 1.172 OPS over last 15 days
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.400↑ vs season .25059 PA · 15d

OPS

1.172

ISO

.280

RBI

K-BB

8-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ATL	5	1	1	1	0	1	.800
💣 406ft · 100.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-16	@ ATL	4	2	0	1	1	0	.500
06-14	vs CHC	3	1	0	1	1	0	.333
06-13	vs CHC	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-12	vs CHC	4	3	1	1	0	1	1.500
💣 377ft · 105.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	vs WSH	4	1	1	4	1	1	1.000
💣 326ft · 98.1 EV · Slider
06-09	vs WSH	3	2	1	1	2	0	2.000
💣 405ft · 105.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-08	vs WSH	5	2	0	1	0	1	.600

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup17PA	.125	.409	15.4	30.8	62	32.3
🐾SISinker23PA	.053	.504	6.7	60.0	73	9.7
🐾FCCutter15PA	.143	.218	0.0	41.7	77	22.2
🐾CUCurveball11PA	—	.241	—	42.9	—	21.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.111	.409	15.4	30.8	62	34.4	161	19

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.636	0.0	33.3	83	27.3	193	7
vs RHP	—	.475	11.1	77.8	67	4.8	161	16

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.167	.249	0.0	45.5	91	22.2	161	13

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.295	0.0	33.3	33	25.0	161	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Eldridge.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.0

Avg EV on HRs

101.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

364

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

42.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.409
Whiff%
32.3
HH%
30.8
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
62
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.504
Whiff%
9.7
HH%
60.0
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
73
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.218
Whiff%
22.2
HH%
41.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
77
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .708). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.0 games · 9 PA (4 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP105PA	.236	.539	.939	14.5%	5
vs LHP26PA	.250	.625	1.048	11.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home61PA	.294	.588	.998	15.0%	4
🐾Away70PA	.193	.532	.932	13.0%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day48PA	.219	.585	1.043	11.8%	2
🐾Night83PA	.250	.542	.915	15.4%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty43PA	.325	.568	.917	3
Runners On61PA	.100	.420	.846	1
RISP38PA	.134	.367	.735	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs44PA	.341	.707	1.116	3
1 Out40PA	.188	.563	1.038	1
2 Outs47PA	.175	.400	.740	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.