Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.1%

+1132

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ben Brown (RHP) (0.16 HR/9) · park 75

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1081

RBI 1+

32.1%

+212

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.5%

95% CI · 11.2–11.9%

+766

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

4.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-25%
vs SP-25%
Contact+27%
SP Contact-16%
Statcast+13%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ben Brown (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0367 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-25% (×0.75) · blended_proj

Park-25% (×0.75)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+27% (×1.27)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+13% (×1.13)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+1130

High

+1025

Low

+390

Med

+525

Avg

+593

+1130

Low +390High +1025

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.6

Proj PA

232

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.178

wOBA

.323

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

46.5

FB%

38.0

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

14.1

GB%

31.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

30.8

FB%

30.8

Pull%

46.2

Soft%

23.1

GB%

30.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

50.0

FB%

39.7

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

12.1

GB%

31.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

50.0

FB%

43.3

Pull%

53.3

Soft%

16.7

GB%

30.0

Away

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

43.9

FB%

34.1

Pull%

34.1

Soft%

12.2

GB%

31.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oracle Park suppresses HRs (75)
Ben Brown stingy: only 0.16 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Hot streak: 1.341 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (75)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.16 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.451↑ vs season .25060 PA · 15d

OPS

1.341

ISO

.373

RBI

K-BB

11-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs CHC	4	3	1	1	0	1	1.500
06-10	vs WSH	4	1	1	4	1	1	1.000
💣 326ft · 98.1 EV · Slider
06-09	vs WSH	3	2	1	1	2	0	2.000
💣 405ft · 105.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-08	vs WSH	5	2	0	1	0	1	.600
06-07	@ CHC	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-06	@ CHC	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-05	@ CHC	5	2	0	0	0	1	.400
06-04	@ MIL	4	3	0	1	1	0	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR27PA	.318	.413	18.8	62.5	47	15.7
🐾SISinkervR15PA	.333	.594	11.1	77.8	56	5.0
🐾CHChangeupvR16PA	.134	.481	18.2	36.4	64	34.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.318	.413	18.8	62.5	47	15.7	135	27

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.167	.636	0.0	33.3	83	27.3	—	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.333	.594	11.1	77.8	56	5.0	135	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.134	.481	18.2	36.4	64	34.6	135	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Eldridge.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.0

Avg EV on HRs

101.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

364

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

42.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ben Brown · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CUCurveball
Use%
37
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.413
Whiff%
15.7
HH%
62.5
BRL%
18.8
Pull%
47
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.594
Whiff%
5.0
HH%
77.8
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
56
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Ben Brown (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Ben Brown (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball	37.1	—	41.3	—	.229	29.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.6	5.5	46.3	53	.319	14.9
SISinker	20.0	2.7	36.1	65	.262	20.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.3	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	45.2	57	.331	14.9	59
vs RHB	7.7	46.2	39	.286	17.9	20

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.9	40.0	66	.272	21.1	44

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3	12
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 33.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .708). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP91PA	.231	.526	.911	10.2%	4
vs LHP22PA	.300	.700	1.155	7.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home53PA	.333	.622	1.018	9.7%	4
Away60PA	.169	.509	.909	9.5%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day44PA	.237	.605	1.060	12.9%	2
🐾Night69PA	.250	.533	.895	7.1%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty36PA	.290	.516	.849	2
Runners On53PA	.114	.409	.805	1
RISP34PA	.142	.321	.615	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs39PA	.389	.778	1.214	3
1 Out31PA	.240	.600	1.052	1
2 Outs43PA	.108	.324	.650	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-010PA	.400	.700	1.000	1
1-012PA	.181	.636	1.053	0
0-16PA	—	.167	.333	0
2-02PA	1.500	2.000	2.500	1
0-212PA	.084	.167	.250	0
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-217PA	.177	.412	.647	1
2-221PA	.048	.238	.429	0
3-217PA	.223	.667	1.373	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.