Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

19.8%

+405

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

14.9%

+572

RBI 1+

37.9%

+164

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.7%

95% CI · 4.5–4.9%

+2032

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Contact-20%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast-9%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0101 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-20% (×0.80)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1145

High

+2000

Low

+535

Med

+725

Avg

+799

+1145

Low +535High +2000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.9

Proj PA

158

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.146

wOBA

.324

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

36.6

FB%

35.7

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

12.0

GB%

42.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

36.8

FB%

43.2

Pull%

39.5

Soft%

21.1

GB%

45.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

14.7

Hard%

36.5

FB%

33.0

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

8.7

GB%

41.7

Home

HR/FB

20.7

Hard%

39.0

FB%

35.8

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

15.9

GB%

45.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

33.3

FB%

35.6

Pull%

28.3

Soft%

6.7

GB%

39.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Hot streak: .793 OPS over last 15 days
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.283↑ vs season .25053 PA · 15d

OPS

.793

ISO

.152

RBI

K-BB

13-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ CIN	4	1	0	2	1	1	.500
06-16	@ CIN	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-15	@ CIN	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	vs ATL	5	3	1	2	0	1	1.400
💣 361ft · 94.2 EV · Cutter
06-13	vs ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs ATL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	vs STL	4	1	0	0	0	2	.500
06-10	vs STL	2	0	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR36PA	.214	.455	13.6	54.5	46	9.2
🐾SISinkervR10PA	—	.088	0.0	50.0	0	35.3
🐾CHChangeupvR11PA	—	.364	0.0	20.0	50	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.214	.455	13.6	54.5	46	9.2	131	36

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.384	0.0	63.6	55	15.4	19	14
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.088	0.0	50.0	0	35.3	131	10

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.364	0.0	20.0	50	8.3	131	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Ewing.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.5

Avg EV on HRs

110.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

405

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

23.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

CUCurveball
Use%
34
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.455
Whiff%
9.2
HH%
54.5
BRL%
13.6
Pull%
46
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.088
Whiff%
35.3
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
0
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .935). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 31 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP97PA	.121	.410	.795	7.1%	2
vs LHP37PA	.090	.242	.436	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home70PA	.183	.433	.781	4.8%	2
🐾Away64PA	.036	.286	.603	5.4%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day58PA	.184	.490	.865	5.6%	2
Night76PA	.060	.269	.572	4.7%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty55PA	.063	.313	.658
Runners On49PA	.100	.375	.737
RISP23PA	.125	.375	.756

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs42PA	.162	.324	.524	2
1 Out44PA	.079	.395	.804	0
2 Outs48PA	.098	.366	.741	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.