Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

11.8%

+751

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 99

2+ RBI

10.5%

+856

RBI 1+

33.9%

+195

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.2%

95% CI · 3.9–4.4%

+2298

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

1.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-1%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact-4%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-4%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)

·90F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0099 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park-1% (×0.99)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-4% (×0.96)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+750

High

+1115

Low

+435

Med

+780

Avg

+795

+750

Low +435High +1115

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.1

Proj PA

220

HR / PA

.014

ISO

.108

wOBA

.305

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

31.3

FB%

30.6

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

12.5

GB%

45.2

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.8

FB%

35.3

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

16.7

GB%

47.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

32.6

FB%

28.9

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

10.9

GB%

44.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

31.4

FB%

35.3

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

17.1

GB%

50.0

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

31.0

FB%

25.0

Pull%

31.0

Soft%

6.9

GB%

39.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Hot streak: .627 OPS over last 15 days
90°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.255↑ vs season .25052 PA · 15d

OPS

.627

ISO

.064

RBI

K-BB

16-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ATL	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	vs STL	4	1	0	0	2	.500
06-10	vs STL	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-09	vs STL	4	2	0	0	1	.750
06-07	@ SD	4	1	1	0	1	.250
06-06	@ SD	2	1	0	2	1	.500
06-05	@ SD	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-03	@ SEA	5	3	0	0	1	.600

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinkervL10PA	.250	.449	0.0	55.6	67	17.4
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.250	.449	0.0	55.6	67	17.4	22	10
vs RHP	—	.023	0.0	50.0	0	42.9	130	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Ewing.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.5

Avg EV on HRs

110.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

405

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/1

Avg LA on HRs

23.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.449
Whiff%
17.4
HH%
55.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.8	8.3	23.6	83	.270	18.3
SISinker	29.5	8.9	49.0	75	.403	11.6
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.5	7.7	45.7	49	.302	30.0
CUCurveball	9.7	0.0	50.0	80	.325	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	28.6	86	.161	21.3	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.5	22.6	83	.302	15.3	70

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	36.7	77	.437	6.5	36
vs RHB	7.7	57.7	73	.370	14.0	39

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	25	.128	21.4	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	51.4	51	.329	33.3	51

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	40.0	80	.412	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .935). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP84PA	.082	.370	.743	8.7%	1
🐾vs LHP30PA	.077	.231	.438	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home64PA	.130	.352	.685	5.7%	1
Away50PA	.022	.311	.638	6.9%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day47PA	.103	.385	.741	7.1%	1
Night67PA	.067	.300	.613	5.6%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty53PA	.065	.326	.684
Runners On40PA	.060	.333	.675
RISP18PA	—	.167	.480

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs33PA	.103	.241	.402	1
1 Out38PA	.061	.394	.815	0
2 Outs43PA	.081	.351	.723	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-010PA	.111	.444	.744	0
1-06PA	.834	1.167	1.500	1
0-17PA	—	.143	.286	0
2-02PA	—	.500	1.000	0
0-29PA	—	.111	.222	0
1-218PA	—	.167	.333	0
2-216PA	—	.188	.375	0
3-222PA	—	.182	.773	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.