Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.2%

+658

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.3%

+789

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.6%

95% CI · 10.3–11.0%

+842

Fair odds

1st AB

2.9%

Through AB2

5.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
Contact+19%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast-11%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0255 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-11% (×0.89)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+725

High

+8030

Low

+515

Med

+762

Avg

+1656

+725

Low +515High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.4

Proj PA

247

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.148

wOBA

.295

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.4

Hard%

28.9

FB%

40.9

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

17.8

GB%

44.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

26.1

FB%

40.9

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

21.7

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

29.9

FB%

40.9

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

16.4

GB%

42.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

27.3

Hard%

27.8

FB%

32.4

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

16.7

GB%

47.1

Away

HR/FB

16.0

Hard%

29.6

FB%

46.3

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

18.5

GB%

42.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Hot streak: .673 OPS over last 15 days
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.171↓ vs season .25037 PA · 15d

OPS

.673

ISO

.286

RBI

K-BB

12-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs BAL	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-16	vs BAL	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-14	@ WSH	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-13	@ WSH	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 386ft · 98.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	@ WSH	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 407ft · 102.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-11	@ BAL	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	@ DET	3	1	0	1	0	2	.667
06-06	@ DET	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball27PA	.538	.247	17.6	53.3	71	33.8
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup11PA	.300	.181	0.0	14.3	71	48.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.709	.264	18.8	50.0	69	25.8	150	26

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.334	.199	0.0	14.3	71	43.5	150	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Emerson.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.3

Avg EV on HRs

99.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

374

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

25.5°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.247
Whiff%
33.8
HH%
53.3
BRL%
17.6
Pull%
71
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .628). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 15 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP65PA	.328	.590	.898	6.5%	5
vs LHP26PA	.228	.364	.633	7.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home42PA	.263	.447	.709	11.5%	3
Away49PA	.333	.600	.927	2.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day40PA	.250	.528	.878	3.3%	1
Night51PA	.341	.532	.787	10.0%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty31PA	.311	.552	.842	2
Runners On41PA	.316	.553	.846	3
RISP17PA	.333	.533	.827	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs27PA	.166	.333	.592	1
1 Out31PA	.366	.633	.923	3
2 Outs33PA	.345	.586	.919	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.