Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.6%

+694

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Cade Cavalli (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

10.9%

+815

RBI 1+

34.3%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.9%

95% CI · 6.6–7.1%

+1357

Fair odds

1st AB

1.6%

Through AB2

3.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP-24%
Contact-9%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cade Cavalli (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0230 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-24% (×0.76) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+695

High

+930

Low

+435

Med

+725

Avg

+724

🐾+695

Low +435🐾 HR money zoneHigh +930

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.2

Proj PA

343

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.142

wOBA

.302

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

23.3

FB%

50.0

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

23.3

GB%

35.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

23.1

FB%

38.5

Pull%

61.5

Soft%

23.1

GB%

46.2

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

18.8

Hard%

23.3

FB%

55.2

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

23.3

GB%

31.0

Home

HR/FB

37.5

Hard%

27.8

FB%

47.1

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

16.7

GB%

41.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

20.0

FB%

52.0

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

28.0

GB%

32.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Hot streak: .847 OPS over last 15 days
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.211↓ vs season .25041 PA · 15d

OPS

.847

ISO

.368

RBI

K-BB

15-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ WSH	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
06-11	@ BAL	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	@ DET	3	1	0	1	0	2	.667
06-06	@ DET	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ DET	4	1	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 351ft · 94.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-03	vs NYM	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-02	vs NYM	4	2	0	0	0	1	.750
06-01	vs NYM	3	1	1	1	0	1	1.333
💣 368ft · 99.6 EV · Sweeper

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR23PA	.524	.224	15.4	46.2	62	28.3
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinkervR8PA	.333	.429	0.0	80.0	40	—
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.524	.224	15.4	46.2	62	28.3	159	23

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.293	0.0	16.7	50	6.2	93	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.333	.429	0.0	80.0	40	0.0	159	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Emerson.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.3

Avg EV on HRs

99.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

374

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

25.5°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Cade Cavalli · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.224
Whiff%
28.3
HH%
46.2
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
62
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
30
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.429
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
80.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
40
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Cade Cavalli (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	34.6	14.3	41.3	48	.375	18.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	29.5	—	31.9	—	.268	28.4
SISinker	15.2	4.9	52.6	76	.345	26.9
STSweeper	11.6	4.3	35.0	52	.320	15.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	33.3	53	.357	16.4	78
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	54.2	33	.410	20.7	43

SISinker15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	70	.501	25.0	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	6.5	51.6	77	.285	25.0	41

STSweeper12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	—	—	—	.271	25.0	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	52	.337	10.0	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .628). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP52PA	.354	.625	.952	5.9%	4
vs LHP25PA	.238	.381	.661	7.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home35PA	.322	.516	.802	13.6%	3
🐾Away42PA	.316	.579	.912	—	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day33PA	.207	.483	.847	4.2%	0
Night44PA	.400	.600	.873	8.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty27PA	.360	.640	.973	2
Runners On36PA	.273	.485	.763	2
RISP17PA	.333	.533	.827	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs21PA	.222	.333	.571	1
1 Out26PA	.440	.760	1.106	3
2 Outs30PA	.269	.500	.833	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-06PA	.167	.667	1.167	0
1-01PA	—	—	—	0
0-18PA	.714	1.000	1.375	1
2-04PA	1.000	1.500	2.000	1
0-23PA	.334	.667	1.000	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-213PA	.077	.154	.231	0
2-219PA	.167	.278	.436	1
3-211PA	—	—	.364	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.