Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.0%

+810

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.0%

+896

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.3%

95% CI · 6.1–6.6%

+1476

Fair odds

1st AB

1.6%

Through AB2

3.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
SP Contact+1%
SP Statcast-4%

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0151 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 3 games

Now

+750

High

+775

Low

+455

Med

+590

Avg

+607

+750

Low +455High +775

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.2

Proj PA

234

HR / PA

.018

ISO

.118

wOBA

.301

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.4

FB%

23.7

Pull%

33.9

Soft%

12.9

GB%

45.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.6

FB%

20.0

Pull%

35.3

Soft%

11.8

GB%

53.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

31.1

FB%

25.0

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

13.3

GB%

43.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.0

FB%

27.8

Pull%

25.0

Soft%

5.0

GB%

55.6

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

26.2

FB%

22.0

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

16.7

GB%

41.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.286↑ vs season .2507 PA · 15d

OPS

.572

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Game Log · Last 2

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	4	2	0	1	0	2	.500
06-16	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seamer7PA	—	—	0.0	50.0	25	23.1
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Pratt.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.000
Whiff%
23.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
25
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

Hover / tap a cell to inspect.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP6PA	—	.167	.334	—	0
vs LHP1PA	—	1.000	2.000	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home7PA	—	.286	.572	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Night7PA	—	.286	.572	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty2PA	—	—	—
Runners On2PA	—	.500	1.000
RISP1PA	—	1.000	2.000

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs4PA	—	.250	.500	0
1 Out3PA	—	.333	.666	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.