Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.4%

+960

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

9.2%

+988

RBI 1+

32.7%

+206

Hits 1+

59.8%

-149

Hits 2+

17.8%

+461

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.9%

95% CI · 3.7–4.2%

+2438

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

2.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
vs SP-2%
Contact-19%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0162 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-19% (×0.81)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+960

High

+1545

Low

+865

Med

+950

Avg

+1018

+960

Low +865High +1545

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.3

Proj PA

283

HR / PA

.019

ISO

.131

wOBA

.328

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

1.3

Hard%

25.7

FB%

41.4

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

20.9

GB%

38.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.2

FB%

44.4

Pull%

25.4

Soft%

20.6

GB%

36.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

2.0

Hard%

23.4

FB%

39.8

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

21.1

GB%

39.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

2.4

Hard%

23.5

FB%

41.2

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

24.5

GB%

38.2

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.1

FB%

41.6

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

16.9

GB%

39.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.279↑ vs season .22849 PA · 15d

OPS

.649

ISO

.023

RBI

K-BB

9-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs STL	3	0	1	2	—
06-10	@ DET	4	1	0	1	.250
06-09	@ DET	2	2	1	0	1.000
06-07	vs KC	4	1	0	0	.250
06-06	vs KC	1	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs KC	4	0	0	1	—
06-04	vs KC	3	0	1	1	—
06-03	vs CHW	4	1	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL18PA	.118	.253	26.7	27	9.4
🐾SLSlidervL6PA	.167	.407	50.0	75	25.0
🐾CUCurveballvL9PA	—	.142	12.5	25	8.3
🐾CHChangeupvL22PA	—	.246	11.8	59	22.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.118	.253	0.0	26.7	27	9.4	85	18
vs RHP	.174	.297	2.6	46.2	36	11.4	78	52

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.167	.407	0.0	50.0	75	25.0	85	6
vs RHP	.114	.290	6.7	20.0	67	18.0	78	39

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.142	0.0	12.5	25	8.3	85	9
vs RHP	—	.149	0.0	40.0	100	18.2	78	7

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.246	0.0	11.8	59	22.2	85	22
vs RHP	—	.227	0.0	33.3	100	26.3	78	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Keaschall.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.066

Barrel %

2.6

Hard Hit %

27.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.284

xBA

.228

Brl / PA %

1.90

Max EV (mph)

107.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

374

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.3°

Brl / PA %

1.90

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.253
Whiff%
9.4
HH%
26.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
27
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.407
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.142
Whiff%
8.3
HH%
12.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
25

Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.1	10.7	47.9	48	.438	9.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.3	14.9	43.5	62	.293	28.0
CUCurveball	15.8	7.7	33.3	54	.208	19.2
CHChangeup	15.0	4.8	32.5	67	.386	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	9.5	47.6	49	.405	9.1	82

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	26.0	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	9.1	36.4	55	.200	21.4	28

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.8	31.0	67	.386	15.0	49

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .404). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP178PA	.070	.301	.616	3.5%	1
🐾vs LHP83PA	.054	.324	.661	3.0%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home142PA	.086	.299	.581	5.5%	1
Away119PA	.038	.320	.690	1.0%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day114PA	.057	.305	.603	2.9%	0
Night147PA	.072	.312	.652	3.8%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty94PA	.035	.233	.499	0
Runners On120PA	.080	.380	.772	1
RISP76PA	.033	.361	.782	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs74PA	.063	.266	.563	0
1 Out96PA	.035	.341	.706	0
2 Outs91PA	.099	.309	.606	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-030PA	.104	.276	.476	1
1-028PA	.142	.571	1.000	0
0-129PA	.074	.481	.930	0
2-07PA	—	.333	.619	0
0-218PA	—	.176	.399	0
3-08PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-234PA	—	.176	.353	0
2-225PA	—	.083	.163	0
3-239PA	—	.172	.557	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.