Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.4%

+958

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 91

Batting #9Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.2%

+987

RBI 1+

32.7%

+206

Hits 1+

59.8%

-149

Hits 2+

17.8%

+461

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.7%

95% CI · 4.4–4.9%

+2044

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact-17%
SP Contact+4%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0171 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+925

High

+1255

Low

+665

Med

+838

Avg

+842

+925

Low +665High +1255

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.2

Proj PA

219

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.147

wOBA

.335

wRC+

113

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

26.8

FB%

41.8

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

19.1

GB%

37.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

2.9

Hard%

31.2

FB%

45.5

Pull%

31.2

Soft%

19.5

GB%

37.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

25.0

FB%

40.2

Pull%

42.2

Soft%

18.9

GB%

36.9

Home

HR/FB

3.4

Hard%

23.9

FB%

43.3

Pull%

40.3

Soft%

22.4

GB%

36.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.1

Hard%

30.1

FB%

40.2

Pull%

37.4

Soft%

15.4

GB%

37.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.231→ vs season .22845 PA · 15d

OPS

.692

ISO

.128

RBI

K-BB

9-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ TEX	4	2	0	1	1	1	.750
06-15	@ TEX	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs STL	3	1	0	0	1	0	.667
06-13	vs STL	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 371ft · 107.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	vs STL	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-10	@ DET	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-09	@ DET	2	2	0	0	1	0	1.000
06-07	vs KC	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball67PA	.217	.298	3.6	38.0	33	13.7
🐾SLSlider45PA	.051	.303	5.9	23.3	68	25.8
🐾CHChangeup33PA	—	.232	0.0	22.7	61	23.2
🐾FCCutter27PA	.080	.334	8.0	43.5	52	15.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.303	5.9	29.4	29	12.5	90	21
vs RHP	.178	.297	2.6	47.4	34	11.2	82	51

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.407	0.0	50.0	75	25.0	90	6
vs RHP	.108	.290	6.7	23.3	67	24.1	82	43

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.242	0.0	15.8	58	21.1	90	24
vs RHP	—	.211	0.0	50.0	75	25.0	82	11

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.355	25.0	37.5	50	10.5	90	10
vs RHP	.118	.321	0.0	47.1	53	17.9	82	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Keaschall.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #9Confirmed0 of 3 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.082

Barrel %

3.0

Hard Hit %

29.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.289

xBA

.228

Brl / PA %

2.20

Max EV (mph)

107.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

374

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.3°

Brl / PA %

2.20

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.298
Whiff%
13.7
HH%
38.0
BRL%
3.6
Pull%
33
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.303
Whiff%
25.8
HH%
23.3
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
68
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.232
Whiff%
23.2
HH%
22.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
61
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 33 PA this season.

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .404). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 32 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP187PA	.079	.317	.638	3.4%	1
vs LHP90PA	.087	.350	.683	4.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home150PA	.112	.328	.615	6.0%	2
🐾Away127PA	.045	.327	.697	1.0%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day122PA	.089	.339	.642	3.6%	1
Night155PA	.076	.318	.660	3.6%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty98PA	.045	.247	.523	0
Runners On125PA	.105	.413	.813	2
RISP80PA	.031	.359	.784	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs83PA	.110	.315	.604	1
1 Out98PA	.035	.337	.704	0
2 Outs96PA	.105	.329	.642	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.