Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.1%

+727

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jacob deGrom (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 102

2+ RBI

10.7%

+839

RBI 1+

34.1%

+194

Hits 1+

63.2%

-171

Hits 2+

21.0%

+377

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.1%

95% CI · 7.8–8.4%

+1130

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact-11%
SP Contact+14%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast+3%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Jacob deGrom (RHP)

·90F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0222 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 10 games

Now

+725

High

+1160

Low

+565

Med

+758

Avg

+838

+725

Low +565High +1160

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.4

Proj PA

165

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.127

wOBA

.326

wRC+

102

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

2.6

Hard%

32.5

FB%

34.2

Pull%

45.6

Soft%

13.2

GB%

49.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

26.7

FB%

13.3

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

20.0

GB%

53.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

2.7

Hard%

33.3

FB%

37.4

Pull%

47.5

Soft%

12.1

GB%

48.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

28.8

FB%

30.8

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

19.2

GB%

51.9

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

35.5

FB%

37.1

Pull%

41.9

Soft%

8.1

GB%

46.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (45% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.4% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.179↓ vs season .24731 PA · 15d

OPS

.437

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

7-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-10	@ TB	3	1	0	0	1	.333
06-09	@ TB	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ NYY	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	vs BAL	3	1	0	1	1	.333
06-02	vs BAL	4	0	0	0	3	—
05-31	@ CLE	5	2	2	0	1	.400
05-30	@ CLE	1	0	1	1	0	—
05-29	@ CLE	4	1	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR54PA	.064	.304	2.2	42.2	47	3.8
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeupvR23PA	.200	.405	6.2	43.8	69	13.3
🐾CUCurveballvR12PA	.083	.196	0.0	12.5	63	19.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.549	0.0	50.0	75	22.2	—	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.064	.304	2.2	42.2	47	3.8	80	54

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.200	.405	6.2	43.8	69	13.3	80	23

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.083	.196	0.0	12.5	63	19.0	80	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Yoshida.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 5 of 11 career HRs (45%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.085

Barrel %

1.8

Hard Hit %

41.2

xwOBA

.310

xBA

.247

Brl / PA %

1.30

Max EV (mph)

108.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.6

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

1.30

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jacob deGrom · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
42
xwOBA
.304
Whiff%
3.8
HH%
42.2
BRL%
2.2
Pull%
47
SLSlider
Use%
34
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.405
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
43.8
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
69
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Jacob deGrom (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	42.4	17.6	55.3	53	.391	21.9
SLSlider	34.4	1.6	32.3	63	.237	22.3
CHChangeup	15.1	4.3	34.8	74	.212	25.9
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	11.1	55.6	67	.223	42.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball42% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.9	50.8	51	.367	20.5	82
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.2	65.4	58	.442	24.4	38

SLSlider34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.4	41.4	69	.255	19.1	51
vs RHB	0.0	24.2	58	.221	25.9	57

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	31.6	74	.204	29.5	32
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	50.0	75	.262	10.0	5

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	66.7	67	.327	33.3	9
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.066	60.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 42.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .446). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP129PA	.081	.313	.639	1.8%	1
vs LHP20PA	.111	.389	.739	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home68PA	.104	.345	.698	1.7%	1
Away81PA	.070	.306	.615	1.4%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day49PA	.166	.476	.884	2.1%	1
Night100PA	.045	.250	.540	1.2%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty52PA	.107	.362	.689
Runners On64PA	.056	.245	.558
RISP36PA	.069	.207	.485

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs48PA	.105	.368	.764	1
1 Out45PA	.071	.357	.690	0
2 Outs56PA	.080	.260	.528	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-016PA	.133	.333	.583	0
1-015PA	.072	.143	.276	0
0-117PA	.059	.471	.882	0
2-03PA	.333	1.000	1.667	0
0-215PA	.066	.333	.600	0
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-221PA	.250	.500	.738	1
2-218PA	—	.176	.399	0
3-219PA	.071	.214	.583	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.