Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

6.7%

+1391

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

7.7%

+1200

RBI 1+

31.4%

+219

Hits 1+

73.7%

-281

Hits 2+

33.3%

+200

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.8%

95% CI · 4.6–5.1%

+1979

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

2.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
Contact-12%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0141 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1130

High

+2605

Low

+750

Med

+1050

Avg

+1153

+1130

Low +750High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.4

Proj PA

252

HR / PA

.009

ISO

.102

wOBA

.306

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.4

Hard%

28.0

FB%

31.0

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

12.7

GB%

45.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.0

Hard%

28.0

FB%

30.5

Pull%

48.8

Soft%

9.8

GB%

48.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

28.0

FB%

31.2

Pull%

37.6

Soft%

13.8

GB%

43.7

Home

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

32.1

FB%

36.1

Pull%

41.8

Soft%

14.9

GB%

39.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.8

Hard%

24.7

FB%

26.8

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

10.8

GB%

49.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (56% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .920 OPS over last 15 days
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.396↑ vs season .31656 PA · 15d

OPS

.920

ISO

.113

RBI

K-BB

3-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ATL	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-16	@ ATL	3	1	1	2	0	0	1.333
06-14	vs CHC	4	2	0	0	0	0	.500
06-13	vs CHC	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs WSH	4	2	0	0	1	1	.500
06-09	vs WSH	5	2	0	2	0	0	.600
06-08	vs WSH	5	4	0	0	0	0	.800

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup18PA	.056	.399	25.0	82	10.8
🐾SISinker54PA	.082	.315	35.6	50	13.4
🐾FCCutter17PA	.062	.304	21.4	65	21.4
🐾CUCurveball24PA	.131	.296	50.0	69	9.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.055	.422	0.0	29.4	82	8.1	134	18

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.276	0.0	21.4	64	16.7	107	21
vs RHP	.032	.315	0.0	40.0	43	8.9	134	32

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.118	.326	0.0	25.0	69	18.6	134	18

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.167	.293	0.0	40.0	70	8.0	134	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lee.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected0 of 9 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 5 of 9 career HRs (56%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.123

Barrel %

2.6

Hard Hit %

30.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.335

xBA

.316

Brl / PA %

2.20

Max EV (mph)

107.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.1

Avg EV on HRs

94.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

317

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.8°

Brl / PA %

2.20

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.399
Whiff%
10.8
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
82
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.315
Whiff%
13.4
HH%
35.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.304
Whiff%
21.4
HH%
21.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
65

Career vs Martín Pérez

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .366). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP194PA	.132	.467	.833	2.8%	2
vs LHP75PA	.100	.400	.733	1.7%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home111PA	.096	.394	.718	3.0%	1
🐾Away158PA	.141	.486	.866	2.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day97PA	.099	.440	.821	4.8%	0
🐾Night172PA	.136	.453	.796	1.3%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty103PA	.136	.469	.848	2
Runners On93PA	.139	.523	.921	2
RISP55PA	.140	.480	.825	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs98PA	.087	.315	.570	0
1 Out96PA	.023	.326	.670	0
2 Outs75PA	.296	.775	1.282	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.