Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

5.0%

+1912

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ben Brown (RHP) (0.16 HR/9) · park 75

2+ RBI

6.7%

+1385

RBI 1+

30.5%

+228

Hits 1+

74.1%

-287

Hits 2+

33.8%

+196

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

2.2%

95% CI · 2.1–2.4%

+4411

Fair odds

1st AB

0.5%

Through AB2

0.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-25%
vs SP-25%
Contact-16%
SP Contact-16%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ben Brown (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0135 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-25% (×0.75) · blended_proj

Park-25% (×0.75)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+1910

High

+1460

Low

+820

Med

+975

Avg

+1023

+1910

Low +820High +1460

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.1

Proj PA

332

HR / PA

.009

ISO

.104

wOBA

.314

wRC+

100

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.1

Hard%

27.5

FB%

28.2

Pull%

38.4

Soft%

13.3

GB%

45.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

24.1

FB%

29.3

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

12.1

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

28.8

FB%

27.8

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

13.7

GB%

43.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

33.3

FB%

32.5

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

14.3

GB%

38.6

Away

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

23.6

FB%

25.4

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

12.6

GB%

49.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oracle Park suppresses HRs (75)
Ben Brown stingy: only 0.16 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (56% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.205 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (75)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.16 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.534↑ vs season .31960 PA · 15d

OPS

1.205

ISO

.121

RBI

K-BB

3-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs WSH	4	2	0	1	1	.500
06-09	vs WSH	5	2	2	0	0	.600
06-08	vs WSH	5	4	0	0	0	.800
06-07	@ CHC	4	1	1	0	0	.250
06-06	@ CHC	4	2	0	0	0	.500
06-05	@ CHC	4	1	0	0	1	.500
06-04	@ MIL	5	4	1	0	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR12PA	.167	.293	0.0	40.0	70	9.1
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR71PA	.282	.368	7.0	45.6	56	5.1
🐾SISinkervR31PA	.033	.323	0.0	41.4	45	9.1
🐾CHChangeupvR17PA	.059	.422	0.0	25.0	81	9.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.167	.293	0.0	40.0	70	9.1	150	12

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.361	0.0	18.8	50	10.7	97	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.282	.368	7.0	45.6	56	5.1	150	71

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.276	0.0	21.4	64	17.1	97	21
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.033	.323	0.0	41.4	45	9.1	150	31

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.059	.422	0.0	25.0	81	9.1	150	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lee.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 5 of 9 career HRs (56%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.119

Barrel %

2.4

Hard Hit %

30.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.338

xBA

.319

Brl / PA %

2.00

Max EV (mph)

107.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.1

Avg EV on HRs

94.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

317

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.8°

Brl / PA %

2.00

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ben Brown · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.293
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
70
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.368
Whiff%
5.1
HH%
45.6
BRL%
7.0
Pull%
56
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.323
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
41.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
45

Career vs Ben Brown (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Ben Brown (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball	37.1	—	41.3	—	.229	29.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.6	5.5	46.3	53	.319	14.9
SISinker	20.0	2.7	36.1	65	.262	20.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.3	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	45.2	57	.331	14.9	59
vs RHB	7.7	46.2	39	.286	17.9	20

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.9	40.0	66	.272	21.1	44

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3	12
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 33.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .366). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP180PA	.142	.491	.874	3.1%	2
vs LHP73PA	.059	.353	.682	1.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home103PA	.104	.406	.736	3.3%	1
Away150PA	.127	.482	.875	2.3%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day93PA	.104	.437	.813	5.1%	0
🐾Night160PA	.127	.460	.823	1.4%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty101PA	.106	.436	.812	1
Runners On86PA	.150	.563	.993	2
RISP49PA	.155	.533	.921	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs89PA	.096	.325	.583	0
1 Out92PA	.023	.337	.696	0
2 Outs72PA	.265	.750	1.264	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-031PA	.129	.581	1.032	0
1-020PA	.050	.450	.850	0
0-128PA	.038	.423	.852	0
2-09PA	.556	1.000	1.444	1
0-217PA	.353	.647	.941	2
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-235PA	.117	.441	.784	0
2-235PA	.114	.371	.629	0
3-224PA	.250	.500	.875	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.