Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.7%

+1048

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Justin Wrobleski (LHP) (0.68 HR/9) · park 119

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.8%

+1037

RBI 1+

32.4%

+209

Hits 1+

64.3%

-181

Hits 2+

22.2%

+351

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.0%

95% CI · 2.8–3.1%

+3278

Fair odds

1st AB

0.8%

Through AB2

1.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+19%
vs SP-1%
Contact-11%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast-2%
Discipline+2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Justin Wrobleski (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 119)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0096 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park+19% (×1.19)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+2% (×1.02)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+1040

High

+4900

Low

+675

Med

+990

Avg

+1328

+1040

Low +675High +4900

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.8

Proj PA

208

HR / PA

.009

ISO

.090

wOBA

.292

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.6

Hard%

38.0

FB%

23.5

Pull%

28.1

Soft%

14.9

GB%

52.9

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

45.5

FB%

29.6

Pull%

21.8

Soft%

14.5

GB%

42.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

31.8

FB%

18.5

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

15.2

GB%

61.5

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

36.4

FB%

27.3

Pull%

27.3

Soft%

18.2

GB%

52.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

39.4

FB%

20.3

Pull%

28.8

Soft%

12.1

GB%

53.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is a hitter's haven (+19 for RHB)
Justin Wrobleski stingy: only 0.68 HR/9
Park boost (119)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.68 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.189↓ vs season .25439 PA · 15d

OPS

.528

ISO

.108

RBI

K-BB

5-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ LAD	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-15	@ LAD	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-14	@ LAA	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 394ft · 102.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	@ LAA	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-10	vs BOS	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs BOS	4	2	0	1	0	0	.750
06-08	vs BOS	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ MIA	2	0	0	0	2	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL27PA	.192	.348	5.3	68.4	32	7.1
🐾SLSlider26PA	.038	.330	0.0	40.9	71	25.6
🐾SISinkervL15PA	.143	.260	0.0	33.3	42	8.3
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.192	.348	5.3	68.4	32	7.1	93	27
vs RHP	.030	.313	0.0	31.0	14	4.4	85	42

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.040	.341	0.0	45.5	68	20.6	85	25

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.143	.260	0.0	33.3	42	8.3	93	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.352	0.0	22.2	67	13.6	85	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

120

🐾vs RHB

119

vs SHB

119

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Williamson.

Season Statcast

ISO

.078

Barrel %

1.7

Hard Hit %

37.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.304

xBA

.254

Brl / PA %

1.20

Max EV (mph)

109.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

95.7

Avg EV on HRs

95.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

349

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

35.0°

Brl / PA %

1.20

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Justin Wrobleski · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
51
xwOBA
.348
Whiff%
7.1
HH%
68.4
BRL%
5.3
Pull%
32
SLSlider
Use%
33
xwOBA
.330
Whiff%
25.6
HH%
40.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
6
xwOBA
.260
Whiff%
8.3
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
42
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.

Justin Wrobleski (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	50.7	4.7	41.0	44	.294	19.3
SLSlider	32.9	11.2	50.0	62	.338	10.7
SISinker	5.7	8.3	26.1	67	.433	—
CUCurveball	5.7	9.1	36.4	73	.244	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY51% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	58.8	53	.302	26.2	32
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.4	37.1	43	.292	18.0	120

SLSlider33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.2	29.2	58	.244	9.7	28
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.8	56.9	63	.361	11.9	81

SISinker6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.1	27.3	68	.453	—	23
vs RHB	no sample

CUCurveball6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	9.1	36.4	73	.244	0.0	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .423). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAD)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Dodger Stadium (330/395/330 ft) · elev 512ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 30 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP99PA	.024	.271	.625	—	0
🐾vs LHP72PA	.147	.412	.708	3.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home81PA	.068	.315	.636	—	0
🐾Away90PA	.087	.350	.687	2.7%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day75PA	.103	.382	.729	1.5%	1
🐾Night96PA	.059	.294	.610	1.5%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty53PA	—	.163	.389
Runners On85PA	.107	.480	.920
RISP53PA	.109	.435	.839

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs51PA	.152	.391	.705	1
1 Out54PA	—	.208	.491	0
2 Outs66PA	.085	.390	.769	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Tue.