Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

71.3%

-249

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 6.6 K over 5.8 IP

Over 5.5 K

71.3%

-249

Over 6.5 K

52.5%

-110

Over 7.5 K

33.1%

+202

Over 8.5 K

17.4%

+474

Season Pitching

ERA

3.32

WHIP

1.10

K/9

10.3

Expected IP

5.8

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

100

ERA

4.09

FIP

4.08

HR/9

1.22

25.6

BB%

9.9

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.9

Hard%

41.2

FB%

35.8

Pull%

46.8

Soft%

13.9

GB%

46.5

vs LHB

HR/FB

17.3

Hard%

40.6

FB%

39.4

Pull%

49.6

Soft%

12.0

GB%

46.2

vs RHB

HR/FB

16.0

Hard%

42.2

FB%

30.1

Pull%

42.2

Soft%

16.9

GB%

47.0

Home

HR/FB

13.9

Hard%

35.7

FB%

32.4

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

12.5

GB%

47.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

19.5

Hard%

47.1

FB%

39.4

Pull%

46.2

Soft%

15.4

GB%

45.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.36

Barrel % Allowed

12.5

Hard-Hit % Allowed

48.6

Avg EV Allowed

91.1

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

108

vs SHB (HR factor)

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs MILProjected lineupTotal threat: 129%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	25.7	6.8	25.6	77	.247	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.2	11.7	46.7	32	.375	19.8
CUCurveball	23.8	11.5	55.2	80	.290	20.5
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.0	12.2	63.6	59	.383	32.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.9	17.6	88	.203	27.6	37
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.4	37.0	70	.291	22.4	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.2	41.5	34	.372	20.3	63
vs RHB	10.5	63.2	26	.383	15.0	31

CUCurveball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.2	60.9	85	.336	21.7	72
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	67	.114	13.8	19

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	42.9	64	.366	22.2	20
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.4	68.6	57	.391	38.5	48

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

9HR in 226 PA · 4.0%

Most off Curveball

3 PA since last HR allowed

Curveball 44-Seamer 2Cutter 1Sinker 1Sweeper 1

vs RHB

6HR in 161 PA · 3.7%

Most off Sweeper

4 PA since last HR allowed

Sweeper 3Cutter 14-Seamer 1Sinker 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #2 — 7 of 21 HRs allowed (33%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#2#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.