Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

29.8%

+236

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 4.4 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

29.8%

+236

Over 6.5 K

15.2%

+560

Over 7.5 K

6.3%

+1487

Over 8.5 K

2.1%

+4622

Season Pitching

ERA

2.90

WHIP

1.05

K/9

7.4

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

5.23

FIP

5.01

HR/9

1.47

17.0

BB%

8.8

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.5

Hard%

37.1

FB%

32.0

Pull%

56.1

Soft%

13.9

GB%

46.8

vs LHB

HR/FB

21.1

Hard%

38.6

FB%

27.5

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

50.7

vs RHB

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

36.5

FB%

34.0

Pull%

58.7

Soft%

11.4

GB%

45.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

37.9

FB%

30.3

Pull%

58.1

Soft%

16.1

GB%

47.5

Away

HR/FB

16.2

Hard%

36.3

FB%

33.9

Pull%

54.0

Soft%

11.5

GB%

45.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.87

Barrel % Allowed

7.0

Hard-Hit % Allowed

38.0

Avg EV Allowed

88.3

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

100

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs SFProjected lineupTotal threat: 82%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

2HR in 75 PA · 2.7%

Most off Curveball

17 PA since last HR allowed

Curveball 1Sinker 1

vs RHB🐾 exploit

4HR in 189 PA · 2.1%

Most off Changeup

74 PA since last HR allowed

Changeup 2Cutter 2

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #2 — 6 of 21 HRs allowed (29%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#2#1#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.