Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

29.4%

+240

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 4.4 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

29.4%

+240

Over 6.5 K

14.9%

+572

Over 7.5 K

6.2%

+1525

Over 8.5 K

2.1%

+4760

Season Pitching

ERA

3.03

WHIP

1.20

K/9

7.4

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.39

FIP

4.24

HR/9

1.44

22.2

BB%

6.5

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

30.7

FB%

33.5

Pull%

52.2

Soft%

11.1

GB%

47.6

vs LHB

HR/FB

12.3

Hard%

34.1

FB%

34.3

Pull%

52.7

Soft%

10.8

GB%

46.4

vs RHB

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

25.2

FB%

32.0

Pull%

51.5

Soft%

11.7

GB%

49.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.5

Hard%

33.1

FB%

32.3

Pull%

53.2

Soft%

11.3

GB%

48.4

Away

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

28.8

FB%

34.5

Pull%

51.4

Soft%

11.0

GB%

46.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.87

Barrel % Allowed

7.5

Hard-Hit % Allowed

35.5

Avg EV Allowed

88.4

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

102

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs TORConfirmed lineupTotal threat: 90%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

4HR in 170 PA · 2.4%

Most off 4-Seamer

16 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 2Curveball 1Sweeper 1

vs RHB

3HR in 126 PA · 2.4%

Most off Curveball

62 PA since last HR allowed

Curveball 1Cutter 1Sinker 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #2 — 10 of 35 HRs allowed (29%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#2#3#1#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.