Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

41.1%

+143

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.0 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

41.1%

+143

Over 6.5 K

23.4%

+326

Over 7.5 K

11.1%

+805

Over 8.5 K

4.2%

+2261

Season Pitching

ERA

2.22

WHIP

0.85

K/9

8.4

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

3.66

FIP

3.69

HR/9

1.20

26.3

BB%

7.2

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

31.5

FB%

36.3

Pull%

42.5

Soft%

19.2

GB%

45.2

vs LHB

HR/FB

13.9

Hard%

30.2

FB%

41.9

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

18.6

GB%

39.5

vs RHB

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

33.3

FB%

28.3

Pull%

45.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

53.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

25.0

FB%

39.6

Pull%

47.9

Soft%

22.9

GB%

35.4

Away

HR/FB

14.7

Hard%

34.7

FB%

34.7

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

17.3

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.12

Barrel % Allowed

8.2

Hard-Hit % Allowed

37.0

Avg EV Allowed

87.7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

131

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs MIAProjected lineupTotal threat: 108%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	38.9	9.1	43.2	46	.244	22.7
SISinker	16.7	10.3	35.9	49	.321	14.3
STSweeper	13.5	5.9	23.5	71	.341	17.1
FSSplit-Finger	12.7	4.2	29.2	75	.257	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	41.2	47	.258	19.1	53
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	40	.208	31.0	20

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.117	15.4	6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	40.0	51	.354	13.6	39

STSweeper14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	71	.633	0.0	8
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	70	.204	20.7	17

FSSplit-Finger13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.3	31.6	74	.326	9.4	22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	80	.119	42.9	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

5HR in 126 PA · 4.0%

Most off 4-Seamer

2 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 3Cutter 1Splitter 1

vs RHB

2HR in 87 PA · 2.3%

Most off 4-Seamer

13 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 1Sinker 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #3 — 6 of 15 HRs allowed (40%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#3#2#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.