Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

22.4%

+346

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 4.0 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

22.4%

+346

Over 6.5 K

10.4%

+860

Over 7.5 K

3.9%

+2440

Over 8.5 K

1.2%

+8252

Season Pitching

ERA

2.55

WHIP

1.23

K/9

6.6

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.84

FIP

4.59

HR/9

1.25

17.9

BB%

8.9

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

35.2

FB%

37.8

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

12.7

GB%

40.2

vs LHB

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

44.8

FB%

32.8

Pull%

44.8

Soft%

9.0

GB%

43.3

vs RHB

HR/FB

10.1

Hard%

31.6

FB%

39.7

Pull%

35.6

Soft%

14.1

GB%

39.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.5

Hard%

32.1

FB%

34.6

Pull%

35.8

Soft%

14.6

GB%

50.0

Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

39.3

FB%

41.9

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

10.3

GB%

27.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.89

Barrel % Allowed

8.2

Hard-Hit % Allowed

36.1

Avg EV Allowed

88.4

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

106

vs SHB (HR factor)

Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs LAAProjected lineupTotal threat: 111%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	39.3	12.3	46.6	40	.352	20.4
CHChangeup	27.9	4.3	22.6	59	.291	12.4
FCCutter	13.9	20.7	44.8	62	.442	22.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	4.0	48.0	64	.294	24.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.6	45.5	50	.363	16.7	32
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	35	.349	21.4	90

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.6	57	.136	23.8	12
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	22.1	59	.309	9.5	102

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	45.5	55	.572	20.0	12
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	44.4	67	.377	23.5	24

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	62.5	63	.184	28.6	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.9	41.2	65	.379	0.0	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

1HR in 91 PA · 1.1%

Most off Cutter

64 PA since last HR allowed

Cutter 1

vs RHB🐾 exploit

7HR in 245 PA · 2.9%

Most off 4-Seamer

7 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 3Changeup 2Cutter 2

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #3 — 9 of 19 HRs allowed (47%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#3#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.