โ† Back
Aaron NolaRHP
PHI ยท SP
๐Ÿพ Tonight4:40 PM MT ยท Citizens Bank Park
Pitcher Strikeouts
34.8%
+187
๐Ÿพ๐Ÿพ๐Ÿพ๐Ÿพ๐Ÿพ
Big Dawg Energy
Projected 4.7 K over 4.7 IP
Over 5.5 K
34.8%
+187
Over 6.5 K
18.7%
+435
Over 7.5 K
8.2%
+1115
Over 8.5 K
2.9%
+3300
Season Pitching
ERA
5.86
WHIP
1.47
K/9
9.0
Expected IP
4.7
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-07-16 ยท THE BAT
Proj IP
70
ERA
4.98
FIP
4.84
HR/9
1.78
K%
21.7
BB%
7.3
2026 Contact Allowed
๐Ÿพ Tonight: Home2026-07-16 ยท FG
Season
HR/FB
16.5
Hard%
34.0
FB%
42.2
Pull%
44.3
Soft%
16.2
GB%
39.4
vs LHB
HR/FB
16.0
Hard%
38.8
FB%
45.7
Pull%
41.8
Soft%
13.9
GB%
37.2
vs RHB
HR/FB
17.4
Hard%
27.8
FB%
37.4
Pull%
47.6
Soft%
19.0
GB%
42.3
๐ŸพHome
HR/FB
17.8
Hard%
32.0
FB%
37.8
Pull%
49.2
Soft%
15.6
GB%
40.3
Away
HR/FB
15.8
Hard%
35.5
FB%
45.2
Pull%
40.8
Soft%
16.6
GB%
38.7

๐Ÿพ = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed
HR/9
1.67
Barrel % Allowed
9.3
Hard-Hit % Allowed
38.8
Avg EV Allowed
88.2
Ballpark โ€” Tonight's Venue
vs LHB (HR factor)
131
vs RHB (HR factor)
92
vs SHB (HR factor)
111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup โ€” HR Threat
๐Ÿพ Tonight vs NYMProjected lineupTotal threat: 162%

Red = top HR threats (โ‰ฅ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
CUโšก PUT-AWAY34.0โ€”26.4โ€”.23221.9
FF24.718.050.056.45021.3
SI19.910.443.560.38714.6
CH12.07.140.071.2756.5
Platoon detail ยท vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball25% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHBโšก PUT-AWAY๐Ÿพ EXPLOIT16.254.162.50414.951
vs RHBโšก PUT-AWAY23.146.239.33027.322
SISinker20% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB5.050.070.40111.335
vs RHB14.339.354.37420.636
CHChangeup12% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB๐Ÿพ EXPLOIT4.334.865.2928.728
vs RHB20.060.0100.1870.06

๐Ÿพ Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. โšก PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate ยท 21.9% put-away); a ๐Ÿพ EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB โ€” the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the โšก PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile โ€” where he gets beat
vs LHB๐Ÿพ exploit
7HR in 181 PA ยท 3.9%
Most off 4-Seamer
4 PA since last HR allowed
4-Seamer 5Knuckle-Curve 2
vs RHB
7HR in 149 PA ยท 4.7%
Most off Sinker
1 PA since last HR allowed
Sinker 3Knuckle-Curve 2Changeup 14-Seamer 1
HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot
โš  Gets punished most by spot #2 โ€” 8 of 24 HRs allowed (33%).
5
1
๐Ÿพ
8
2
๐Ÿพ
5
3
๐Ÿพ
3
4
ยท
2
5
ยท
1
6
ยท
7
ยท
8
ยท
9
ยท
Vulnerable to:#2#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024โ€“2025 cached Statcast.