Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

58.4%

-140

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.9 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

58.4%

-140

Over 6.5 K

38.6%

+159

Over 7.5 K

21.5%

+365

Over 8.5 K

9.9%

+913

Season Pitching

ERA

3.19

WHIP

1.19

K/9

9.9

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

101

ERA

4.60

FIP

4.65

HR/9

1.50

23.4

BB%

9.7

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

32.0

FB%

40.5

Pull%

48.0

Soft%

9.3

GB%

41.9

vs RHB

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

32.7

FB%

44.2

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

7.7

GB%

36.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

12.5

FB%

41.7

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

16.7

GB%

37.5

Away

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

41.2

FB%

40.0

Pull%

47.1

Soft%

5.9

GB%

44.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.58

Barrel % Allowed

5.3

Hard-Hit % Allowed

34.7

Avg EV Allowed

89.6

⚠ Small sample (75 BBE allowed). League-average regression will dominate the model output.

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

117

vs RHB (HR factor)

107

vs SHB (HR factor)

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs CHWProjected lineupTotal threat: 91%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.0	8.0	52.0	52	.383	18.0
SLSlider	25.8	11.1	33.3	67	.220	21.9
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	25.0	65	.217	30.0
CHChangeup	12.8	0.0	18.2	82	.228	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	28.6	42.9	71	.480	25.0	12
vs RHB	0.0	55.6	44	.356	16.3	41

SLSlider26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	37.5	75	.283	13.0	12
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	30.0	60	.184	26.8	21

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	63	.175	40.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	67	.244	20.0	14

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	0.0	18.2	82	.228	17.9	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

1HR in 34 PA · 2.9%

Most off 4-Seamer

17 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 1

vs RHB

1HR in 96 PA · 1.0%

Most off Slider

18 PA since last HR allowed

Slider 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #3 — 13 of 36 HRs allowed (36%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.